ORH_wxman

Oh yeah for sure. Eastern areas are in the worst spot. For here I’m kind of hoping for something that extends from like ALB and goes ESE across my area....but the best chance for something bigger is def down in CT..esp SW CT.

It is kind of amazing just how close synoptically we are to two warning criteria storms within 3 days of each other. One of them potentially a KU.

Nope. Was more amped to the west at 108 but the vortex then trends in from the northeast to block it at the perfect time.

1/29 might be interesting on GGEM

I’d def still watch for a surprise on that system. You can see how it would work out...you keep a kink in that h5 shortwave as it crosses SNE longitude rather than becoming almost totally flat. When the little curl is maintained, those are the solutions that spit out 0.4 or 0.5 qpf.

1/29 has a way higher ceiling if it somehow get north but I also think it’s less likely to get you shovelable snow than 1/26 where you are. I actually think you have a realistic shot at a decent band down there with the first system. 1/29 seems like it needs more help.

GFS isn’t buying it. Lol. Ukie was decent for you last night though. In the end though, we all really know that the euro needs to show the trend.

Nice bump north for you on the JV models so far at 12z. ICON and RGEM. You aren’t done yet for 12/26. Now just need the varsity team to come on board here to believe the trend.

Gotta get out to Tahoe this week. One of those 100” weeks incoming.

GGEM making a run at 1/29 as well. Not quite enough but that’s interesting at least.

Totally different than other guidance and the 12z run up north. Amazing how it changes from run to run. Prob irrelevant north of the pike but for your area it matters a lot.

Actually scrapes SNE now. I was surprised to see how far north H5 was just looking now.

GFS was marginally better for 1/26 too even if it was still a crap result....it’s getting that shortwave pretty far north off to our west now. That’s a trend we want to see.

There’s a decent band in NY with a lot of PVA to the west so it’s a little more interesting than the previous runs imho.

Keep forgetting 18z stops at 90h but that looks pretty decent for at least CT trying to extrapolate. Might be ok for pike too.

18z Euro coming in more amped. We’ll see if this is good for CT at least.

18z GFS was a mild improvement. Def still need to watch this in CT especially.

12z EPS:

3 of the seasons since 2016 have been La Ninas too which favor SE ridge anyway. Though I will point out how convenient it was for the first half of this January the Hadley cell high gradient was nowhere to be found when we needed it.

This is kind of a loaded question? When do you define "since climate change?" Because ORH had like 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015....also 2 Januarys of 45"+ (2011 and 2015). Did CC start in 2016? Or maybe it's just 5 years doesn't mean a whole lot. 11 out of 15 Jan/Feb combos from 1979 to 1993 failed to produce a single 20" month (meaning both January and February were below 20" in the same winter). Since 2000-2001, only 5 winters out of 20 have been able to match that same feat where both Jan/Feb each were below 20" in the same winter. We've had two in a row...this year would be 3. We've been spoiled rotten for a couple decades and now we're eating a little regression pie.

Yeah this is part of my "evidence-based argument" that I have seen lacking. I've seen a few theories like "when we get a cold pattern in October, we often see regime shifts every 4-6 weeks which line up for a poor early winter"....well, some of these patterns weren't even that cold, more like cold shots in an otherwise normal/mild October (both 2020 and 2011 qualify). But even if that wasn't the case, 2020 just blew that argument to pieces with a good December pattern for snow including our largest region-wide snowstorm since 2018 or maybe even 2015. But you can test the regime change theory anyway....it would say that cold Octobers should correlate significantly to shitty winters. But they don't.

Sure, but two problems: 1. It's a sample of like 4-5 occurrences between 2000 and 2020. 2. What part of climate change would make October snowfall more likely to produce a poor winter? I'm open to the concept, but I haven't seen a good evidence-based argument yet. Until I do, I'm not going to adopt it as a logical theory.

I didn't worry. There's no evidence to support it matters. The October snow myth is like a gambling junkie convincing himself that because the roulette table went 4 reds in a row, the 5th has to be a red too. It's based on recency bias....people are scarred from 2011 and 2009, but don't look at 2002 or 2000.

Almost time for warm bum-bum posts.

Pretty similar to 00z....12z yesterday was zonked crazy and that's what we want to get back to.