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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Too early to know how IVT will play out...the precip will basically blossom almost overhead later today and tonight.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is pretty much it....it's still pina coladas, parrots, and banana hammocks next week, but the guidance is starting to get more aggressive for a favorable Pacific beyond that. We still are contending with the big -PNA, but it's not digging the trough as much as before. It's more like PAC NW instead of max anomalies down in CA and even into Baja.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Going into Phase 8 would definitely help as we go into late Dec/January....IIRC we actually had a potent phase 8 wave in January 2011 after the huge NAO blocking broke down post-Jan 12th storm. I believe the same thing happened in January 2009 after the NAO blocking broke down early in the month.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah probably, but someone may get lucky with 3 or 4" if there's enough LL convergence.
  5. ORH_wxman
    RGEM likes C/W MA and CT.
  6. ORH_wxman
    NAM tries to bring some 600mb goodies into the Cape late today...might be something to watch there. I'm a bit skeptical, but can't rule it out. 06z Euro wasn't that far off...just a little offshore with them. IF they got some of that outer ML fronto stuff, they could flip to wet snow for several hours.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Even EPS may start offering winter wx chances again around 12/18-12/19. It's not a bad look.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Trough axis isn't really stationary long enough to be a NORLUN, but it gets close. The instability is there though. Would like to see a little more LL convergence....here's the NAM sounding near Ginxy tonight
  9. ORH_wxman
    Ensembles trended a bit better overnight. Still a ways out but perhaps Xmas week can be salvaged. Monster EPO ridge...
  10. ORH_wxman
    Jeez I wake up to like 3 pages of global warming discussion....lol. Model guidance has become more confident in widespread light snows. Someone is prob going to get lucky with a 4”+ lolli too given the nice soundings. It’ll just be a matter of where some LL convergence sets up the strongest and for longest period of time. Good nowcast event at least...these aren’t easy even at 6-8 hours lead time.
  11. ORH_wxman
    You’re trying to find where the best low level convergence is because that is the primary forcing mechanism. Most guidance has been pretty consistent showing it somewhere between Portland ME area down to RI. The “natural” IVT looks like it wants to go over central/eastern SNE but S ME is always in the game because of the natural shape of the coast there which sort of promotes an IVT.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Last week was less favorable. Moisture was really lacking aloft which is not the case this time. Most people will prob miss out in this but I do think it’s going to set up somewhere.
  13. ORH_wxman
    00z NAM back with the strong IVT for central/eastern areas of SNE.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Not sure...but I figured after the holidays you’d be relaxed and may accept your fate of a record snowless winter in Tolland.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Just log off and return after New Years all refreshed.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and it's also possible the downstream ridging is overdone (or the extent of the western PNA trough)....I know I don't have to tell you that even if you displace that eastern ridge by a couple hundred miles to the south, we'd probably be quite cold as the northern edge of the positive 500mb height anomalies are quite cold underneath...that arctic airmass will be sloped of course.
  17. ORH_wxman
    The extreme -PNA is really crushing the east with warmth in the extended. We can usually deal with a -PNA at this latitude, but not when there entire longwave trough is digging down into Baja. Like, here's the EPS at D15....you can see the AK ridge is totally restored...that is actually quite a stout -EPO, but look at how insane that -PNA is.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Last year's grinch storm was an all timer. Prob 95% of grinch storms couldn't melt off 10"+ of pack in 8 hours like that one did....we had grinch storms in 2007 and 2008 which both failed to melt the pack. Last year's was like the Arnold Schwarzenegger of grinch storms.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Euro was the most paltry out of all guidance down here. It is still showing that finger of snowfall from IVT though S RI up through central MA and S NH.
  20. ORH_wxman
    12z guidance has actually been pretty consistent with the exception of the NAM going nuts on the IVT....most other guidance is pretty much in agreement on 1-2" for a larger chunk of the region. There will likely be some areas of enhanced rates but you just don't know where they will be.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Decent IVT sig over RI/E MA that run.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if we assume the model is handling the polar domains fairly well, I'm figuring we end up decently colder than it shows at least up in the northern latitudes. It's really hard to have a ridge in AK and some ridging in greenland and end up torching....I'm not even sure how that happens at all outside of a temporary cutter or something.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Oh for sure...if it actually verified...someone would prob get 10-12" fluff bomb from that look. The problem as we've been saying, this might set up 200 miles away too.
  24. ORH_wxman
    The ingredients are there for a good one...we have deep moisture....not dry above like 800mb, lol. Extremely unstable lapse rates occur too. You just need the LL convergence/lift.
  25. ORH_wxman
    3km hugs the coast with it....congrats Scooter.
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