ORH_wxman

Yeah even on the euro short term busts like 2/5/16, it comes back pretty slowly. It might make a “moderate” jump in that type of situation but you almost never see it go full-on massive swing in one cycle. We’re running out of time with this one but still can’t rule out a larger moderate/heavy event...but 00z needs to keep coming NW for that to happen. Status quo won’t do.

It was def better than 12z but it’s incremental. Need a couple more of those to make it a bigger deal...or a larger jump somewhere.

Yes. That is the baroclinic zone. It’s just the area of thermal gradient where you get all the forcing and rapid development of the low. The way to not have it escape east is to weaken any front running shortwaves or energy and have the backside energy become dominant. This is kind of the issue on the current threat. We don’t have a really defined area of energy (usually seen as vorticity on the 500mb maps)....instead we have some weak impulses embedded in the trough. We really want the vorticity more defined near the base of the trough....that will naturally tend to happen of the trough becomes sharper so that is why we are rooting for that look.

Might be tough right near water or in an urban heat island with light rates, but the airmass itself isn't exactly marginal. 925 temps are like -5C.....so prob upper 20s interior to near freezing on coast...maybe mid 30s right on the water and that's where most of the accumulation issues might happen in light rates.

Surprised some of the queens in here didn't point out how much better it was for SE MA than 12z.

Keeps sharpening up the trough....but you still need it to capture the system without letting the baroclinic zone escape east....and it's still escaping east. You can see how it tries to expand the precip shield back west late in the game though compared to 12z.

We definitely still need another solid shift NW to make this more than a 1-3 deal for most. It would be nice to get the Euro a little more bullish, but it's been pretty steadfast on the 1" idea with maybe some scattered 2-3" amounts.

Yeah too early for QPF-queening....maybe by tomorrow 12z.

The trough axis keeps moving west each run....on a larger scale that is a good trend.

Yeah it was worse for the max zone in SE MA but it was more widespread further west.

Euro is mostly 1" (maybe 2" in spots) for almost everyone except C-1" west of ORH and then a little area of enhancement for maybe 3-6" in S ME.

I think the hostility relaxes close to 12/20....you can see the AK ridge rebuilding back before then, but then you'll need a few days to let the residual effects take hold.

Ukie beefed up QPF across much of New England...still not a big event, but more widespread with the 1-3/2-4" amounts.

No idea, i don't use those maps.

GFS trough was deeper but it looked slightly more progressive so it was kind of a wash with 06z for sensible wx impact. PRecip was maybe a little more widespread than 06z.

Last night's 00z GGEM is the only current model run that didn't have at least an inch or two....and it's probably going to cave at 12z given what he RGEM has done since 00z. It's getting fairly likely we see some accumulating snows over a good chunk of SNE. Whether that's an inch or two or something more prolific remains to be seen.

12z NAM coming in more amped through 48h.

Guidance looking slightly better at 00z so far. Not a big change but this is the first run that’s getting a piece of that energy offshore sampled better. Should be fully sampled tomorrow at 12z. Another small step NW would make a big difference.

Still too early to bail on this one. But we’re definitely going to need to see a shift by 00z tonight when some of the key energy comes onshore. Synoptically there’s plenty of room to trend north...the trough axis isnpretty far west when this thing first gets going. It just needs to overcome the fast flow and semi-flattish western ridge. But we do have a propensity for SE ridging and there’s no blocking so both of those could help try and send it north. I do love the psychoanalysis on here. “Will and Scooter stopped posting”....meanwhile he’s at the airport and I’m outside doing final leaf cleanup.

12zNAM is a scraper. A little more amped than 06z but not a big move.

06z euro did improve some over 00z. Sharper with the main trough and gets some light precip up into NNE now which suggests some weak ML forcing getting further NW.

I think we’ll need to see some other guidance like the euro moving NW by 00z tonight. That’s when the first piece of crucial energy comes onshore in BC.

Yeah I’m not biting on that yet. It’s possible but you need everything to go right. We’re kind of trying to thread the needle in getting a truly big solution (say a widespread 8-14” type storm). We don’t have any real blocking and we have a SE ridge, but at the same time the flow is quite progressive...so that will limit how far NW it can trend.

Next two cycles are going to be huge as one of the key pieces of energy comes on shore in BC. We’ll see if that changes some of the solutions. When we have a proclivity for a SE ridge with no blocking and you happen to get some energy more consolidated than previously, then that’s how you get those aggressive N trends that we are used to in La Niña events. That’s what I’ll be watching for.

EPS is really hammering the EPIC-looking negative PNA mid-month. It just torches the central and eastern US because that PNA trough out west goes so deep into southern latitudes.