Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    90,972

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yep. We may score something before Christmas. The potential is there for sure but the pattern does continue to improve once past Christmas. Dec 18-19 was always a long shot for us in SNE. Maybe the euro will score a coup, but my money is against it.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that solution is how I envision the system going. Pretty much nada south of MA/NH border. Just not a good antecedent airmass.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the narcan maps are not correct. You aren’t getting moderate snows that don’t stick. Even at 33-34F any snow that’s under a mile vis is going to stick.
  4. ORH_wxman
    My guess is it still ends up too warm in SNE for snow. But we’ll see. Pretty insistent so far.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Euro is definitely insisting on the colder/flatter look for Saturday. Should be an interesting set of guidance today as we’re getting around the 100 hour mark.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Cutters are def still possible right into late December but the pattern is colder than the one we’ve been in...so it’s also possible we end up on the colder/snowier side of things if we can get some good timing on a couple systems. I agree the pattern looks even better as we go into New Years...but sometimes we focus too much on perfection when merely “good” can often bring home the bacon. Patterns like Dec 2007 and Dec 2008 are good examples of that.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Basically whole month of January would rock if that happened, but weeklies are not very useful beyond Week 2/3.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Prob as soon as the -NAO shows up stronger on future runs. They'll whine their way to 50 inches in 3 weeks. Then they'll quickly forget it and irrationally fear the -NAO again next winter.
  9. ORH_wxman
    The longer range beyond looks even better too than the Pre-Xmas pattern. That has some higher end potential than just the SWFE pattern.
  10. ORH_wxman
    The NAO has definitely helped the overall trend the past few days in the mean H5 anomaly look leading into Christmas. Here's a loop of the 12z EPS the past 4 days starting Dec 10th and ending with today's run....you can see how much more stout the SE ridge was on early runs.
  11. ORH_wxman
    You can see it here....it helps force everything further south...some ensemble members are trying to show this so its something to watch. It would increase the margin for error if we get that look.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Damn, Euro is ripping a piece of that NAO block all the way back into Baffin Island/Hudson Bay by 12/22....that would make for some fun I think in the days following.
  13. ORH_wxman
    All the western energy gets cutoff and sinks southwest into the Pacific, lol....I'd probably rather have that actually if we somehow manage to snow on 12/18-19 and have a pack to protect...it keeps everything northern stream which is better for us and better for avoiding cutters.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Euro is def interesting for 12/18-19, but I'm not buying it yet. That's a low end warning event pike-northward on that run. It's just that we don't really get a solid flux of CAA prior to that event which is what makes me skeptical of the snow that far south. If future runs can give us a bit better push behind the FROPA this Friday, then maybe I'll start buying a bit more.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah unlikely we get skunked completely....esp once you are getting up into northern SNE. Long ways to go though before anything...even the 12/18-19 threat is 5 days out and most of us in SNE are not in the game with that threat....so we're still probably a week-plus out from our next snow threat. A lot can change.
  16. ORH_wxman
    The 12z GFS is actually a great example to have right after the 06z GFS.....while the 06z GFS shows how things can go right, the 12z GFS shows how things go wrong. We're reliant on timing since we don't have true downstream blocking. That -NAO is still east-based so it's not going to provide much resistance for cutters....not until it retrogrades more into the central part of the domain which it might after Xmas....but prior to that, we are still at the mercy of timing.
  17. ORH_wxman
    If it's beyond 3 days or so, that's probably the right approach.
  18. ORH_wxman
    That was a great SWFE. Came in like a wall (so did 12/16/07 too 3 days later). I remmeber I was actually out running a couple errands and got back home just in time...it was prob around 11-1130am or so. Like a few weenie flakes were falling right as I pulled back in the driveway and then about 5 minutes later I looked back outside and it was S/S+....just ripping.
  19. ORH_wxman
    There may be 2-3 chances between 12/18-12/25....hopefully we can cash in. The pattern is really active and there's a lot of cold bleeding in after the 18-19th.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Looks good north of the pike....but my gut is that one ends up being NNE....we'll see though.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Here’s the 5 day 500mb anomaly mean ending 00z 12/25 and then the 850mb temp anomaly below that for the same time....we’ll have chances with that look but with the SE ridge, cutters are still a risk.
  22. ORH_wxman
  23. ORH_wxman
    Definitely plausible. There’s pretty decent ensemble support for some potential wintry systems between 12/20-12/24
  24. ORH_wxman
    Euro/GFS/GGEM all have something to watch for 12/20 timeframe. They also have one for 12/18 but it seems like NNE might be the place to be for snow in that one.
  25. ORH_wxman
    There’s always plenty of room for a grinch storm in there. Esp with that SE ridge still around. But at least there’s good cold bleeding down and it’s an active jet so we should have chances going forward after next week’s torch.
×
×
  • Create New...