ORH_wxman

Northern stream less amped on GFS and southern stream hanging back a bit more. Can't see how this ends up being anything positive this run....but we'll see if any feature plays catch-up

I don't consider moderate (meaning over 3") as likely right now. It's certainly a possibility. But this needs more help to even get it to moderate. If we keep getting slight improvements at 00z, then I think it would start becoming more likely, but all we need a step back and we're getting nothing except maybe a C-1" deal.

All different flavors of meh/non-events on these runs. It's still close to something bigger, but we need a bump now....00z needs something notable to keep this threat alive. We're almost administering CPR here....not quite yet, but soon.

Might be more of a flaccid lower case b.

Still not gonna be good enough I don't think, but we'll see....the far northern stream over Canada is not digging quite as much which I think is important. But I do like the southern stream not dragging as much as 12z....however, in an absolute sense, it's still dragging about like what the 12z GFS had.

Still early, but yeah, that's a pretty big change on the NAM over the four corners region at 42h. A lot more northern stream digging into that region to lower heights there.

It was a thread for posting your own snowfall map predictions before the Valentines Day storm in 2007 I believe it was...back on the old EasternUsWx. The map was submitted as a serious attempt. The humor of it speaks for itself.

Here’s my forecast for the storm.

We actually achieved it in back to back years in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Both years had bigger Decembers than January. In 2019-20, December was by far the biggest month and then it went completely dead the rest of the winter. In 2020-21, February rebounded big time after a lackluster January.

If there’s one golden nugget of hope, it’s that the Euro suite is dragging the SW energy the most and it’s a known model bias for it to do so. So perhaps we may see some slightly better solutions going forward if it can “catch up” to reality…that is assuming it is dragging the energy too much. If it’s not, then we’re cooked. But if it is, then we still have a legit chance for something decent. The discouraging part is that the other guidance has been dragging the southern vort too, just not as much as the Euro.

At least we got nice trends from the JMA and NAVGEM today. Who needs the EPS?

Southern vort is pretty different. Really dragging on EPS. But yeah, if it speeds up a bit, it could theoretically come back strong.

Yep that southern stream just wants to drag. If we can somehow speed it up just a tick, then I think we might be back in the game since the northern stream is trying to play ball on all guidance now…. but it gets harder to reverse trends once you get closer to the event…although we did see it in this last one when it tried to start coming north only to get shoved back south and jackpot Virginia.

It’s trying at 84h. Might try and pull a GFS at the last second and clip SE MA. Biggest problem is we’re getting inside of 60h on the key players for phasing potential so it gets hard to make decent sized moves on those.

Euro looks no good at 66h. Might be slightly better than 06z but we need more than nominal trends. The bigger solutions are on life support imho.

Thanks for the analysis.

Ukie got significantly worse. Might be an ominous sign for Euro later.

Yep. Improvement from 00z but when you’re improving from total garbage, there’s still work to do. A lot of the 12z solutions are very similar so far. The garbage ones from 00z got better but the decent ones haven’t.

Some of these runs are becoming more northern-stream dominant as the southern stuff gets sheared while the N stream simultaneously is trying to improve and dig more. So we’re getting some middle solutions. Perhaps it morphs into something like that….but if we can speed back up that southern stream a bit, then some nukes might start showing up again too.

Yeah the end result was slightly better than 06z for south shore and SE MA. Not a huge difference but there’s a path for warning snowfall if you give it just a little more phasing.

Southern energy really tries to catch up at last second. N stream digs down and it’s close. Frustrating to track this event on guidance because visually I can keep seeing how damned close it is to a much bigger deal.

Yeah not gonna happen this run. Clock is ticking faster and faster on this threat.

Southern stream is dragging a bit though on GFS this run. That’s becoming an issue on multiple models.

Energy in Canada looks a bit better on 12z GFS through 39 hours. Hopefully this starts coming back a bit.