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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    3k continues to be colder than the 12k....actually gives decent snows again for parts of CT late tonight.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Keep us posted....your obs are actually kind of useful for how guidance was handling the low levels.
  3. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM looks normal early on, but its going to be super amped by late Friday....850 low at 18z tomorrow is over NYC while it was S of LI at 12z.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I'm not at all comfortable yet for your 'hood on just going borderline advisory snow. I've been noticing the RAP cooling all day today....Euro continues to be an issue obviously, but we'll keep tracking. RAP has you with this sounding at 15z tomorrow with already 6+ fallen
  5. ORH_wxman
    I wasn't opining on whether it would verify like that....just that it barely missed an epic solution. Like top 5 all time type stuff. I'm not even taking these OP runs seriously at all.....ensemble forecasting is the way to go until we're about 3-4 days closer.
  6. ORH_wxman
    That was almost an epic run....still a great solution, but we barely missed a total capture of the ULL diving through VA.....the shortwave that is responsible for the storm outruns it.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Good Scooter high in place on the Euro at 168-174
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you'll prob get a period of parachutes when the lift is good predawn and then you lose them as lift moves on and/or 925 warms too much to support snow any longer. Whichever happens first.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it has some snow pre-dawn for your 'hood. Maybe a couple inches. Not as good as GFS though.
  10. ORH_wxman
    After it took the low about 100 miles south from it's interior SNE days, it's been pretty stubborn tracking it from E LI to SE MA for the last 5-6 runs.....06z was maybe the furthest south....it did get the low kind of close to you, but it did it in a colder manner tracking it south of BID and just S of MVY before it hooked it left. 12z run doesn't take as wide of a turn.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Looks a smidge colder on the front end than 00z, but it looks a bit warmer than 00z for friday night. 06z looked a bit colder than both.
  12. ORH_wxman
    What's nice about this pattern is that this is just the first major threat....it appears we will multiple reloads on the western ridge with the decaying NAO block through end of the month and into early Jan.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Might as well go record highs....nothing's changed since the first half of November
  14. ORH_wxman
    Wildcat or Sunapee would be my two top spots in NH in this storm.
  15. ORH_wxman
    2 on MAV guidance. 0 on MET (though it has a 1 for early Sat)
  16. ORH_wxman
    One of the random meteorological phenomenon i find amusing in this storm is the 1000-500 thicknesses are lowering during the event at the same time the BL is warming.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that early Sat flashover wouldve been cool, but the stall rarely works out. Gonna be too far northeast by that time....maybe a period of SN-, but no big CCB finish.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Check out GFS, lol Your BY at 09z early tomorrow:
  19. ORH_wxman
    Honestly not sure....3km looked a bit more like the RAP on the soundings....but I've seen the 12km do better before too.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be watching the short term guidance todya pretty closely....def some differences. 3k was a lot snowier (esp down in CT) than the 12k NAM. RAP early tomorrow has excellent snow growth for ORH that would prob help overcome the mild sfc...but the below is the kind of sig we want to see
  21. ORH_wxman
    They'll be helped by upslope there and some latitude. Being on the east slope there should help with some of the cooling. Even if the immediate base is a bit sloppy, you prob won't have to go up more than a couple hundred feet before its a lot better.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah its going to be all about the omega and how strong it is and where it lines up....you rip 30-50 microbars in the DGZ, then there are going to be some surprises. If you don't line it up and/or omega is weaker, then it's a cold rain for most outside the very highest spots in Berks/N ORH/Monads
  23. ORH_wxman
    Check out the 3k early tomorrow....coming in pretty thumpy for CT....and looking at the soundings, you can see why. This is Tolland at 09z tomorrow...great cross hair sig
  24. ORH_wxman
    NAM looks a bit warmer than 06z at 27h....a little cooler than the 00z run. (looking at 925)
  25. ORH_wxman
    You def want a cross hair sig to maximize any latent cooling potential.
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