ORH_wxman

EPS continue to slowly shift 1/23 SE…good sign for CNE/NNE.

Yeah this run had a nice little min-area of confluence set up ahead of the storm, which gives you some wiggle room. It's still somewhat precarious, but if that confluence is there on future runs consistently, then we'd have a much more legit chance at a good storm. For now, still model fodder.

Don;t count on it....expect flurries/snow showers and be pleasantly surprised if you get a couple inches.

Euro is quite a bit better looking for 1/25-26.

Yeah....I'd expect mostly nothing though where we are....except maybe some on Friday if we get lucky. If we can get another bump colder then I think it would become interesting, but I'm expecting the whole thing to end up a little bit north of the 12z depiction....as seems to happen a lot in these types of systems.

Ray might finally get his jackpot fetish storm

We had a similar needle-threader right before the onslaught in 2015....the system on 1/24/15 that got everything started was actually a really precarious setup with basically no high to the north and we just happened to get the trough in the perfect spot to ride the low just offshore and produce a modest band of 5-9" type snows across a chunk of the area. Same deal on this one...it's an airmass that really isn't that cold and there's no high holding any of this in (it slides quickly offshore). One reason I'm pretty pessimistic for snows in SNE until post-1/25....these airmasses aren't that good and hardly any of the setups of a decent high....with the delicious irony of Thursday being the exception. Only problem with Thursday is the airmass is so putrid, that a decent high only merely gives snows down to about the MA/NH border or rt2-ish region.

GFS came in flatter with 1/23 as well...not snow for SNE, but it's back to a big hit for CNE/NNE.

These are def the types of runs you want to see so far at 12z to give yourself just a little big of wiggle room. Of course, the Euro could piss in your cheerios which we've seen too much of this year. But I'm starting to feel a bit more optimistic for the NH border region than I did yesterday.

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

I could see a brief period of steady snow/sleet down to the pike near the end of round 1....esp over eastern areas. Even the NAM had it kind of collapsing before it shuts off. So maybe something to watch if that process happens a little faster. There have been a few events where the RGEM was a cold outlier and won. I want to say the March 23, 2020 storm and the Jan 23-24, 2017 storm where both times the RGEM had marginal snow profiles down into the pike region and both times it flashed over in the middle of the storm....the 2017 storm was that weird cutoff with like no cold air but the ORH hills maybe benefited from upslope cooling to turn mostly sleet into a lot of snow mixed in and we got like 4-5" of really dense stuff. But I won't be biting unless we see other guidance continue the colder trend.

RGEM still trying to hit the pike hard on the front end....not buying it....but it's a good sign for like Ray's area and the far S NH peeps that the NAM ticked colder and the RGEM didn't tick warmer.

"C Pickles, MD Trainer" (MD stands for Milf/Dilf)

There's just very little sfc cold to tap into in this. You typically want to see cold draining from a good source and we don't have that until you are up in Maine.I think a band of sleet is prob more likely than ZR....somewhere betwen the MA/NH border and down to near the pike could get pelted for a while...esp in the latter stages of the first wave of precip.

Yeah...i dont think we're disagreeing on anything....people like pattern talk when it's earlier in the season and there's a good look for snow....optimism is high. But they aren't going to stay engaged when we keep getting porked....regardless of what the pattern looks like.....we have real world examples in here. Jan 2013 and Jan 2015 are prob the best ones.....the pattern looked excellent going forward but most didn't really care or made the sarcastic remarks or outright melted because they were tired of getting screwed prior to that. This year is following a somewhat similar behavior. Though I'll be the first to say, the pattern going forward doesn't look as favorable as either of those years. It looks a lot better than what we've had, but still could easily disappoint.

It's too bad we don't have any type of antcedent airmass for this one...this would be a warning event right down to HFD-PVD line probably. All of the synoptic features are pretty classic for a solid SWFE for SNE with the one glaring exception of any type of cold antecedent airmass.

That is basically the 2nd half of January 2013. Those melts might have been worse than the January 2015 melts.

Yeah this never looked good on the front end for SNE anywhere south of Rt 2....a few teaser RGEM runs aside. We know the deal on these....if it's not slamming N CT/S MA border on the model guidance, then I ignore for snow in the pike region. The ULL hangback energy does look pretty interesting though. Could def see grabbing a couple to 3 inches from that if it works out. Hopefully it still looks good tomorrow.

Yes, the replies get more and more sarcastic and disengaged after a while....but the general idea still holds true. People really come here to discuss storms, not idealized H5 maps.

I think people were biting a bit too much on 1/23 and 1/25 yesterday. Hopefully they trend better as we get closer, but there's all sorts of landmines to navigate with both of them. Our best look comes in the week after that...but since there is no definitive threat on model guidance during that period, it makes for very little discussion. Even in our good winters, pattern talk doesn't get the most attention...it's always individual storm threats.

06z eps is a nice track for NNE for 1/23. This is def their pattern over the next week or so. Maybe beyond too depending on where the gradient eventually settles

Yeah that’s where we could potentially pick up a few inches. I doubt we get anything on the front end south of rt 2.

Yeah it’s not a good look…esp 1/23. Maybe we get lucky and it trends more progressive but I’d count on that one being rain just about everywhere unless I was maybe in N VT where there’s a reasonable chance it stays snow. 1/25 has a better chance to produce for SNE but even that one is still prior to the PV really dipping south.

Would be huge for the ski areas if they can keep 1/23 snow too. That would be a really nice base repair from those two systems. Get skiing like it’s supposed to be.

Yeah the ULL center goes north of us but the vortmax goes just south of us or almost over us so that’s where we could get some lift from. At the same time that is happening, the ULL is getting stretched out and opened up so that promotes an IVT where that is occurring….usually lining up with where the energy is going. So you see an IVT extending back into SNE. A few of the northern runs have it more in CNE or northern SNE.