ORH_wxman

I dunno…one run and there’s a 50/50 minimum in the height field. It didn’t look warm.

Yes. It’s a pretty cold look there. I’m not arguing prior to that, but prior to that has looked pretty warm for a while (though I’ll say it wouldn’t be surprising if that 2/20-2/22 period goes colder…could be a torch too but a lot of uncertainty there on guidance) Almost all the analogs for that type of look have had a pretty cold stretch rolling forward (1967, 1959, 1990, 1997, 1994, etc)…maybe it doesn’t happen this year, but if we’re trying to stay objective, then I gotta acknowledge the possibility.

The post-24th period doesn’t look any different to me. If anything it’s gotten colder on ensemble guidance. I’m not believing it yet but some of the discourse in here sounds like we’re ready to go into March with 2010 or 2012 on our minds.

This are mine after Feb 2013

Yep. And to respond to pickles, I’m not talking about posts like Scott where he’s like “I’m not looking at the model guidance like I normally do”….I’d agree with that. I’m not looking at stuff that closely because I know the next 10 days are dogshit so I just take quick glances each cycle….but we all will spring to life the instant an event appears in non-clown range. And yes, one 6-10” event won’t change what this winter really is. A ratter. But that’s not what I was talking about anyway. We’d need something pretty special from 2/25 through end of March to bring this out of ratter territory. Like a 1993 ending or 2001 or 1956 or something similar. I just find some of the discourse really amusing about futility and pretending knowing what will happen 3+ weeks from now.

Yep. The objective side of me thinks it’s hilarious when all of us are like “I’m done with snow so let’s torch it!” or “this season has shown its cards, it won’t snow again in any meaningful amounts”as if we have any control whatsoever or as if we have any idea what it’s going to be doing 3 weeks from now. Sure, we speculate (that’s what these forums are for), but I’ve heard it so many times over the years on here. I’m ready to punt winter too but I know it doesn’t care what I think. Lol. If models are showing a 8-10” run-of-the-mill warning SWFE for Feb 26th or Mar 2nd or whatever inside of 5 days, 90% of the snow weenies will be all over it like flies on shit. Lots of people will “check back in” after “checking out” on winter. I find it amusing from a Tip-psychological aspect.

You know this winter is starting to erode the objective side of us when Mitch at 2200 feet in S VT is thinking of putting the snow blower into hibernation in mid-February.

Pope is easily triggered these days. They don’t forgive like they used to.

Yeah and even in the few days after that there is a ton of cold lurking north. It only takes a scooter streak timed well and a shortwave coming out of the Midwest for a random high end advisory or warning-level SWFE….yeah it’s been like pulling teeth this winter for that to happen, but we shouldn’t forget that they happen almost every winter…even shitty ones frequently have an event like that.

Yes. It would at least be a realistic scenario if we went the rest of the month snowless. It would still be unlikely though…BOS needs like 1.2 inches to ruin futility. ORH needs 3.7”. BDL would be a little more interesting since they would need 5.4”. But we’re not at the end of February yet. Something could easily pop in the final week we can’t see yet.

That would be 6th or 7th I think.

It’s an H5 map…not a temp map. That’s cold for New England. I’m skeptical of it verifying but when you look at the temp level, it’s cold.

Too bad this one couldn’t back up 50-100 miles. We had just enough cold in place to produce a fun event if it had. Nice little feed of low DP air down the Maine coast. Oh well….in other winters maybe it would have. No SE ridge to bump it north when we need it…but the SE ridge returns to push the next 3 or 4 systems through the St Lawrence valley.

ORH had 24.5” from the Feb 1899 storm. Not sure why their graphic says 13.5….even the map shows 20s over central MA. But yeah….that one was a doozy. Already a lot of snow OTG prior to it too.

Most in here would prefer snow but since there’s no chance anyway, give us the 65-70….beats garbage 40s/50s and clouds/showers. Then hopefully we can grab a big dog before calling it a season.

Yeah I want to dry things out and get outside if we’re not gonna snow for the next 10 days.

ORH prob wouldn’t have even broken theirs if the ASOS wasn’t 2-3F too warm.

Yep. And the snow doesn’t melt fast either at those dews. Also helps they have to “waste” a lot of the sun energy just heating up the pack again…even with high temps of 50+ when the overnight low is 7 degrees. Only huge drawback there is the droughts. They can get bad at times.

Flagstaff had 61 inches in January....been slow to start Feb but they will get blasted again it looks like early/mid next week. I love their weather in late winter though....yesterday they had a high of 50F and a low of 6F....lol. No wonder the snow doesn't melt fast there.

Yeah or flagstaff arizona. They’ll get a 35 inch snowstorm surrounded by 57 degree days.

That's a big qualifier....if we end up getting another 25+ inches of snow, then it would change things for sure. I'd prob need at least another 3 feet here though to grade it higher than last winter. Where you are, it wouldn't take that much.

Yeah that's what I was amazed at....look, different strokes for different folks...I'm not here to change Ray's mind. But as a snow lover, I don't think I could ever enjoy a winter more that had 30 inches less just because I got porked in a blizzard in the higher snowfall winter.

Well scooter didn't have 90 last winter either....the point still stands. I'd take 50 if he got 80 over this shit show. I think I had about 55 last year. I'm not trying to change your mind though. I just find it fascinating from a snow lover's standpoint.

I knew your jackpot fetish was bad, but I personally think you have it up into the stratosphere of neurotic levels. I mean holy shit....I'd punt this winter to the moon in a heartbeat if I could grab 60" even if it meant I got unlucky and Scooter was doing naked snow angels in a 90" season. And I'd do without hesitation it even if I had an extra 10" in the season while nobody else around me did.

PV has been trending south for late month little by little on each run. Not really invested in any potential though until this gets inside 10 days.