ORH_wxman

Yeah up by CAR is different world....even back toward Jackman is. But getting down into the lakes region of western ME further south has struggled with milder temps keeping water bars open, etc.

Dryslot just put his laptop through a wood chipper.

No, you are correct....there is a zero percent chance dendrite's frozen to liquid ratio this winter is anywhere close to 85/15.....if it was, he'd have like 4 feet on the ground. The biggest difference over the interior there is they don't melt out due to exceptionally strong CAD while the coast torches.

I noticed a very strong smell of soil this morning while out....and I smelled it all over town, so I don't think it was a local construction job or anything. I was wondering if it was the thaw after the it froze down a few inches this weekend.

We were out on ice yesterday.....a lot of it was good clear black ice that went down a solid 3-4" so I had no qualms about my boys being on the ice with me. Lot of people playing hockey too. All a dream in a couple more days. This winter may rival 2001-2002 as the least amount of pond ice I've seen during the winter.

I'd love to dry out the ground a bit....With all the rain we've had, plus the recent freeze (now thawing) and the small amount of snow we had in late January....the ground is pretty damp. I'd take 60 and dry....but 46F and rain will just make me want to stick needles in my eyes, lol

Yeah hopefully you can set a new record there. S CT into Mid-atlantic has an outside shot this year.

If we get through the final week of February, then maybe....but nobody is really that compelling at the moment in the BOX stations....I think BDR (OKX office) has a non-hail mary shot though. They are sitting at 0.8 inches right now with their record at 8.2 inches.

Yeah the ridge is a little offshore so it sort of renders the PNA neutral...but we have cross polar flow and a pretty robust PV on our side of the hemisphere....so I could definitely see a wintry stretch in late Feb/early Mar for one last run at something meaningful. It could easily crap out though....so people shouldn't start expecting a grand finale....though in this winter, an 8 inch snow event would be considered a "Grand finale"....so we'll see. I'd obviously wait until we're much closer to put more definitive odds on seeing something wintry.

Yeah that event is likely toast. But I’ll give it another cycle or two. Then we deal with a monster SE ridge for the next week beyond that…next potential for snow would be last week of Feb imho if 2/12 doesn’t produce.

Yeah I’m not opposed in principle, but by the time this current mild spell this week wanes (at least to an atmosphere that can support snow), we’re getting into mid-February and it’s getting pretty late to freeze everything into mid-winter form. Up in Rangeley it’s not that late but down here if you have open water in mid-February, it’s pretty hard to bring that back to weeks of ice. You’d need like a solid 5-7 day cold snap and then no torches right after it. Unfortunately that type of look is not in the cards. We may get a snow threat or two but the temps look to run pretty mild…maybe a flip later in the month. But this SE ridge is pretty robust, so the more pragmatic side of me says I’d rather just mail it in at this point instead of hoping for cold/snow that is going to be tough to come by. We’ll still get a few snow threats. My aim at this point is to root for us running into a big dog late this month or early March and then call it a season. I’ve given up on the pack and pond ice fetish until next year. I did get out on the ice today with the boys and it was great. Not cold but 4-5” thick black ice on the local pond.

Def better than bare ground and frigid. I’ll take the mild wx this week over the weekend weather. I liked the quick arctic shot to try and get some records but no need for that shit to hang around more than a day or two. Hopefully 2/12 trends better. I’ll always root for snow but I’m not a masochist. I won’t root for arctic cold with no snow.

Yeah sure. Of course we could.

Yep. Unfortunately we prob have another 10 weeks of horseshit weather. Maybe we’ll get a good April for once but I usually assume it will suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t.

They are at 7.9” I think. Almost no chance for futility record.

What futility are you referring to

We just need to move to Salisbury Maryland

Outside of the 2/12 situation, looks quite boring until maybe late in the month.

Just outside now at 40F and it feels really nice. The arctic shot was fun, but if we’re not gonna snow this week, then bring on the milder weather.

Yeah and that’s how I picked out ORH pretty quickly yesterday. I had been suspicious of them for a while (due to their monthly departures always being warmer than other sites recently) but didn’t bother to deep-dive until this cold snap…this was a perfect atmosphere to do a QC and they quickly did not pass the smell test. Solid 2-3F too warm. It looks like MPV’s malfunction was only yesterday though right? It seemed like from Brian’s graph that the ASOS there was fine for the first part of the day and then rapidly went haywire.

Why wouldn’t you just make the bet for BDL then? BDL isn’t getting 4”+ the rest of the season while ORH gets skunked.

Oh I was pretty sure when you and Ginxy made the bet it had to be both that failed for you to win. Its still a terrible bet for BDL but obviously they have a better chance of failing than ORH does.

Difference is he needs ORH to get less than 4 inches for the rest of the entire winter to win an even money bet. He seems to not be aware that even in a horrific january pattern, they got over a foot. He keeps saying “the pattern will just continue to suck”….well yeah, that could totally be true but it still doesn’t mean you bet money it won’t snow again at 1000 feet over the interior…lol. Its not good pattern over the next 10-15 days but it could easily still snow a few inches. I also think there’s going to be a more favorable pattern later this month.

Yeah I knew Feb 2021 was epic in NNJ but theyve been undersold badly outside of that month for a while. They are due for one of those stretches.

These events are really good for weeding out bad obs because the ridiculously mixed atmosphere basically just makes latitude and elevation the only significant factors.