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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    EPS sig is strong for 2/12.
  2. ORH_wxman
    You see how tight the 925mb gradient is over CNE/NNE right now...its tight over SNE too, but not as much as further north...that's where the big temp falls will start happening when that hits along with sun being down. You'll prob get 4-6F drops in one hour during that.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Not the best place to raise a family, lol. Maybe a vacation cabin though.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The CAA at 925 also becomes more aggressive around now and into evening on guidance...so while solar/snow cover plays a role, it's not the entire story. The CAA had kind of a first initial pulse right with the FROPA, and then it has another acceleration later this afternoon and evening.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Steady drop since this post down back to 14.6F. Should be a pretty steady drop now being past 2pm and sun is starting to get pretty low in the sky.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I haven't even taken mine out of the shed....I usually have it chained to my deck all winter, but it's still sitting in the shed from the warm season. We'll see if the 2/11-2/12 threat turns into anything interesting. Right now, it's got potential, but it's all about timing. If timing is slightly off like we see on the Euro, then it's mostly rain or nothing.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Euro looking pretty interesting at D7....brewing something up to the southwest with a decent high nosing in. Seems like all guidance have something there that may be trackable. Obviously no reason to take it seriously for winter wx until we are closer, but there is a reason to keep an eye on guidance at least.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Got down to 14.6 but now back to 16.0...it's been doing that all day here since the sun got reasonably high in the sky (since about 10am)....2 steps down and 1 step up .
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah SSTs in ENSO region stopped being relevant around New Years...the lag puts it well into March at that point. Hopefully prolonged Nina into spring means we'll have a warm spring.
  10. ORH_wxman
    It's an amazing upslope spot but kind of goes undetected without a coop there these days. They had almost 300 inches in 2000-2001
  11. ORH_wxman
    Oh nice....not sure why it isn't flowing through the UCAR site.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Kind of annoyed we don't have K8B0 obs....Rangeley at 1800+ feet would have been good too.
  13. ORH_wxman
    We're dipping again in this latest burst....gone from 17.4 to 15.8 in about 15 min.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I'm glad they didn't waste a snow day here...I'd rather my kid be done in June a little earlier. It's gonna be really nasty later, but it's mostly after the kids are home.
  15. ORH_wxman
    925 temps aren’t even -20C yet in most of SNE. You aren’t going to be getting super low readings yet. Even in CNE it’s like -25C…that’s really cold but the meat of it is still to come…they should shave off another 10C at 925 even in CNE. Down in SNE we might shave off another 13-15C
  16. ORH_wxman
    Here you can see the obscene gradient right now
  17. ORH_wxman
    Between now and 00z, 925 temps go from like -17C to -26C or -27C...you don't get that kind of drop without a big response at the sfc in this mixed environment.
  18. ORH_wxman
    It's prob gonna utterly crater after about 2pm when the sun gets pretty weak.
  19. ORH_wxman
    I don't think there is any doubt that La Nina had a large influence on the pattern this winter.
  20. ORH_wxman
    We briefly dipped below 16F about 30 min ago but now rotting at 17F....it's almost like when the wind isn't howling in with the CAA, we managed to tick up a bit but when we get the next burst of huge gusts/CAA, it drops a degree or two.
  21. ORH_wxman
    12z GFS is -32C at 925 for BOS at 06z....that's threatening beating 2016.
  22. ORH_wxman
    We have been dropping in a little bursts here....I was rotting around 17.6-18.0 for like an hour and then all of the sudden we dumped down to 16.8F in the past 10 min.
  23. ORH_wxman
    No that was 2018-19.....2019-20 was the biggie in early December (mostly to your north but you did get some in that) and then mostly dogshit the rest of the way. There were a couple smaller events in December after tha early month storm.
  24. ORH_wxman
    RAP and HRRR both have 925 temp around -31C or -32C for pike region. NAM continues to be a tick or two warmer around -29C. The 3k looks a little colder though than the 12k NAM....but still a little warmer than HRRR/RAP
  25. ORH_wxman
    And yet, you'd still lose your bet if we got snow like Dec and Jan. Difference between generally shitty winter wx and getting completely skunked. It's hard to get skunked at 1000 feet in interior New England.
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