ORH_wxman

We've got -22 to -24C 925s about to move over us the next hour or so with surface temps still in the lower teens....that is really unstable. There's gonna be a lot of 50 spots.

A 2015-esque freeze event prob is only once a decade or less. But Boston harbor and chunks of Cape Cod Bay and ACK sound do freeze at least a couple times a decade.

Harbor was totally frozen out to the islands east of Hull and Winthrop that winter. Almost all of Cape Cod Bay was frozen too and it was frozen out to MVY.

Yeah I’ve been joking around about it with Scott and Ray. The Ashland coop near me had 72.5” after February 18th that season after limping to about 23” up to that point. Talk about a big turnaround…lol. But all honesty, I do think that semi-colder look has been been advertised at least somewhat for a while…that EPO ridge never really went away…it ebbed and flowed a bit but having it there always gave the milder mid-month pattern a temporary feel to it. I do think there will be some winter storm threats late month into early March. But a bunch of crappy close calls and other variables that prevent snow wouldn’t surprise me this winter.

Down another 2.5 to 12.1 in the past 60 minutes.

Time to start honking Ray’s 1956 ending.

Yeah as much as I love outdoors/mountains/lakes/etc....being that far from civilization full time with small kids doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies.

EPS sig is strong for 2/12.

You see how tight the 925mb gradient is over CNE/NNE right now...its tight over SNE too, but not as much as further north...that's where the big temp falls will start happening when that hits along with sun being down. You'll prob get 4-6F drops in one hour during that.

Not the best place to raise a family, lol. Maybe a vacation cabin though.

The CAA at 925 also becomes more aggressive around now and into evening on guidance...so while solar/snow cover plays a role, it's not the entire story. The CAA had kind of a first initial pulse right with the FROPA, and then it has another acceleration later this afternoon and evening.

Steady drop since this post down back to 14.6F. Should be a pretty steady drop now being past 2pm and sun is starting to get pretty low in the sky.

I haven't even taken mine out of the shed....I usually have it chained to my deck all winter, but it's still sitting in the shed from the warm season. We'll see if the 2/11-2/12 threat turns into anything interesting. Right now, it's got potential, but it's all about timing. If timing is slightly off like we see on the Euro, then it's mostly rain or nothing.

Euro looking pretty interesting at D7....brewing something up to the southwest with a decent high nosing in. Seems like all guidance have something there that may be trackable. Obviously no reason to take it seriously for winter wx until we are closer, but there is a reason to keep an eye on guidance at least.

Got down to 14.6 but now back to 16.0...it's been doing that all day here since the sun got reasonably high in the sky (since about 10am)....2 steps down and 1 step up .

Yeah SSTs in ENSO region stopped being relevant around New Years...the lag puts it well into March at that point. Hopefully prolonged Nina into spring means we'll have a warm spring.

It's an amazing upslope spot but kind of goes undetected without a coop there these days. They had almost 300 inches in 2000-2001

Oh nice....not sure why it isn't flowing through the UCAR site.

Kind of annoyed we don't have K8B0 obs....Rangeley at 1800+ feet would have been good too.

We're dipping again in this latest burst....gone from 17.4 to 15.8 in about 15 min.

I'm glad they didn't waste a snow day here...I'd rather my kid be done in June a little earlier. It's gonna be really nasty later, but it's mostly after the kids are home.

925 temps aren’t even -20C yet in most of SNE. You aren’t going to be getting super low readings yet. Even in CNE it’s like -25C…that’s really cold but the meat of it is still to come…they should shave off another 10C at 925 even in CNE. Down in SNE we might shave off another 13-15C

Here you can see the obscene gradient right now

Between now and 00z, 925 temps go from like -17C to -26C or -27C...you don't get that kind of drop without a big response at the sfc in this mixed environment.

It's prob gonna utterly crater after about 2pm when the sun gets pretty weak.