ORH_wxman

EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it.

Nice model war in clown range. EPS way colder than GEFS.

So the PWM one was also not legit…it was running about 2F warmer than it should? Did it get fixed? Or was it some local siting fluke? The BOS one was clearly not legit but it will look legit to anyone who casually glances at the data without any other context. That’s the unfortunate part. But only sickos like us who scrutinize the data will know the truth. I remember the month was warm…but it was absolutely not that close to being record warmth. Prob more like between top 10-20 type month based on surrounding sites.

That is bordering on insane to me…at least from a climate accuracy perspective. I know there are limited resources but it seems like there is WAY too much deference to ASOS than the empirical evidence would support. A couple years back in summer of 2020 I think it was, BOS had a record warm month (think it was July) when the other 4 major BOX climate sites weren’t even sniffing top 15….the record still stands today despite everyone with any QC experience knowing it’s a completely bogus “record”…you prob remember all the asterisk jokes during that year with BOS temps. It lasted a long time too…maybe even a year or more. One of the events months later in winter they were moderate or heavy snow with a 34 temp while everyone surrounding them was 32 and it became comical. I think NWS BOX finally got the sensor changed despite it “passing” multiple IT calibration checks (this part is coming back to me now as a result of this discussion). Not sure who they finally convinced it was wrong, but it obviously was. The funny part was when they replaced it, the new one had a cold bias of about 1F but I think it finally went away after a few months. Not sure if they changed the sensor a second time or if the error disappeared on its own for some other reason.

Early august heat wave was pretty legit. Lots of upper 90s in that one. But I agree in the larger scale of recent summers. The humidity I think caps the high temp potential…we want those EML type heat bursts on WNW flow in order to rip a 102F or 103F in the 128-495 belt but we just rarely get them in recent years. Instead we get plenty of 94/72 type Bahamas blue garbage.

2 degrees seems like a ridiculously broad threshold. You can literally have a sensor running 2F warm or cold and nothing gets done but it utterly annihilates the accuracy of the climate record.

GFS still not even throwing us a 70F bone this winter like the euro is. You just know the GFS is going to win that one.

Even just the sfc plot screams “in-situ” CAD…look at how dead the sfc winds are over New England versus out in western NY and PA…not what you want to see for a well-mixed atmosphere

Well for places like BOS it actually was the coldest in over 65 years. Basically non-radiators haven’t seen colder since then. There were probably some ties though (such as ACK…likely ORH tied the 2016 outbreak too if their ASOS sensor was correct)

Eh dont bother…he’s not going to engage fully. Everyone else knew what you were saying…rats come in different flavors and this one is a really weird one. We’ve had some decent pattern windows and we’ve whiffed on all of them. It’s different than a rat like 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 where we went almost wire to wire with a fat pig over Alaska and very little hope.

GFs is trying to cancel it. Still there on euro though.

Reminds me a bit of ‘96-97 (pre-March/April of course)…..mild winter but there was a ton of snow in the lakes region there in W ME. We went up skiing to Sunday river on Feb 16-18 that year and there about 2” of crust in ORH…zero pack east of ORH on 495 all the way up through southern Maine and then it went from 0 to about a 40” pack in Waterford ME in a span of 30 miles or so. They had a great snow year despite a lot of the region struggling to that point.

The 2nd week of March can sometimes break down into a more bowling ball “spring” type pattern but we’ve also seen it behave like mid-winter too (2014 or 2017 come to mind with these massive longwave deep troughs over the east with upstream ridging in the west)….2018 was maybe a hybrid…massive NAO/AO blocking and a lot of cutoffs but there was a thermal gradient to tap into that is often not there in, say, early to mid April, so we got those epic snow bombs in March ‘18. Either way…I don’t have much to add on the SSW front for you and radarman’s discussion but I don’t put much stock in them from a LR perspective since they are so hit or miss on the effects…usually by the time we can figure out if it’s going to cause favorable blocking, that said blocking is already seen by mid-range ensemble guidance and there’s no need to try and read the tea leaves at 10mb or 50mb.

Yep...42F and overcast here with a brisk wind. Utterly useless.

Weeklies are trying for one last hurrah period for late Feb through mid-March. They actually have some sustained western ridging that is supported by a solid Aleutian low. I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm just the messenger here.

Murphy's Law this season....when we actually got blocking and lower heights in December for that 18 day window, they didn't produce shit (in our backyard at least). Then the PV decided to sit its ass over in Siberia for the better part of a month with only a brief visit back over here recently....and during the times the PV was over here, we haven't produced any snow events anyway.

Yeah it has beaten the GFS plenty of times...but it also gets beat regularly too...I basically weight the two evenly at this point. It's a synoptically ugly setup that requires a lot of things to go right, so best course of expectation is to assume nothing wintry will happen until the evidence becomes strong enough to think otherwise.

We're prob not seeing any blocking like March 2018 walking through that door....but maybe we can pull a Mar 2017 or a late Feb/early Mar 2019 type pattern.

Yeah it's not a 3-4 day chinook like 2017 , but even a day or two would be nice to dry things out some. EPS trying to give an arctic shot right after it....lol.

Yeah like I posted earlier about GFS/GGEM....signal is geting pretty good. You want to see that highest height anomalies shooting up into NNE and S Quebec for the true clean warm sector idea where we make a run at 70. It's hitting the same date too....Feb 17th.

We'll get just enough compromise to give everyone advisory snow and ruin any fantasies of futility, but not enough for Kevin to be happy he was wrong.

Ok not as bad as I thought....not enough eye candy to suck us back in.

It's gonna do it.

I'd watch Feb 17ish for Tip's potential warm burst...showing up decently on both GFS/GGEM today. Hard to get a clean warm sector, but both have a decent high well southeast of the Atlantic which is what you kind of want to see. You don't want to see any highs lurking up to the north which is almost always a sign of warm sector failure....at least a clean warm sector.

This winter has given us snow lovers a good glimpse into what severe wx lovers in New England feel like every year.