ORH_wxman

Absolutely pounding sleet here

BOS average temp for January is around 29.5-30F or so. So it would take another 3 decades of warming to get them over 32F average on current trends. If it speeds up, maybe they could pull it off in 2 decades. February is actually still below 32F average too but only by a little.

That transient ridging in the Rockies showing up around Feb 28-Mar 1 is pretty good to see. Some may recall that’s a date that has been showing up in clown range…but seeing some larger scale support in the longwave pattern for something on the ensemble mean is always a positive. If we’re gonna try and sneak in a larger event (like double digits), then that is what you’ll need…some transient ridging out there with the 50/50 minimum in place, a shortwave enters …and boom. Hopefully we’re still talking about it next week.

The biggest problem is normal people hate the cold winters in NNE. Only sickos like us love it. So when you try to convince significant others to move there, you are starting from a disadvantage.

At least ski country is looking safer. Would suck for them to get a rainer during vacation week.

Euro was kind of close but it was too cold in the low levels for ice. The cold layer was too thick so it would prob pound sleet at 20 degrees most of the storm. But can’t rule out an icier solution in the future.

I’d take it if we can get 3 or 4 inches on the front end. Then sleet and ZR on top to solidify the pack for the next threats….I’d like a couple weeks of wintry appeal at least if we’re not gonna be able to cook up a big dog.

2/25-26 has been showing up quite a bit too on several different runs. Seems like from ensemble guidance, aside from 2/23, there are likely chances around 2/25-26 and 2/28-3/1

At least this is forming in a classic manner…when we get big UK/Scandi ridge retrograding into an NAO block, it is more believable than other evolutions. Sometimes we’ll get duped by shallower wave-breaking events in the North Atlantic or Labrador and they seem to fall apart easier in guidance. Hopefully this one is real.

Euro is able to ooze down the arctic airmass a bit which produces a much colder outcome. It’s really cold in the low levels. It has upper teens and low 20s over the interior of SNE during sleet.

Euro and Ukie trying suck people back in for 2/23. Euro is a pretty big sleet bomb (n of pike does get a bit of a thump prior)

Euro is trying to give a little snow north of the pike for the front-runner wave on 2/21.

If we retrograde the block into the western domain, it would prob force the SE ridge to retrograde some…there will be two opposing forces there…hard to say which one would win but on that loop it clearly retros the se ridge.

Yeah nobody should count on it being right…but if your looking for optimism, I can’t remember the last time we got a lot of weenie GFS runs before the last few days. Probably have to go back to early December at the beginning of that blocking period. It’s a sign that the pattern is more favorable than it was…but still keep caution flags up for all the reasons we’ve already discussed.

It was still a pretty weenie-ish run. Two decent sized snow events and a close miss on 2/23 (lots of sleet for SNE)

Yep. I’m guessing that’s what happened with ORH too but they prob won’t replace it until it’s at least 3F too warm. Right now it’s kind of somewhere around 2F to 3F. We discussed earlier in the cold shot thread, but the margin they give these things is obscene….2F in either direction. That sounds like insanity to me for a first order climate site, but here we are.

MADIS would catch all of that too…because it’s not that BOS might be warmer than some surrounding mesonets, it’s that the delta between them abruptly got much wider. So if the baseline is usually like BOS +1, it went to BOS +4 within like a month or or two.

We don’t know but they replaced the sensor and it fixed the error. So it was something with the old sensor but not sure what.

ORH is def running warm. Its not BS. It’s really obvious just looking casually at mesonets but MADIS confirms it is running about 2-3F too warm. I hadn’t heard anything about the others but it’s possible. BOS was a really bad offender in 2019 before it was corrected.

Like ‘97. I’ve said the story before but I remember 3 days before that system it was 65-70F with a light breeze and I was outside at the local driving range practicing since varsity golf tryouts in highschool were about a week away….some guys near me were talking about how they heard on the news that we might get 6 inches of snow in a few days and they were laughing at how the weathermen were likely all full of shit…I made a comment to them that it could be even more than 6” and they laughed it off as me being a dumb high schooler who didn’t know any better. I always wondered what their reaction was a few days later when they cracked 30”+.

Need to elongate the vertical front a little more…. You and I have talked about this before…but if we got an equivalent of the 1888 setup in 2023, you wonder if someone could pull 60+ with the added moisture in the atmosphere compared to then when spots pulled 50. These are hypothetical scenarios but there is definitely a return rate on something like that…whether it’s 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 years it’s hard to say.

Just give us one big dog and call it a season. I’ll even go feed some geese if it helps.

Just reminded me of this scene…utterly hilarious https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UD0s8JkdVi0