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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Wound be almost perfect if we could get that upper low about another 50-100 miles SE.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Interior looks pretty good as long as we avoid the furthest west members. We’d prob get crushed on all those buzzards bay to cape cod bay members…your area def wants that cluster east of the elbow.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Nice clusters
  4. ORH_wxman
    The 06z run gave ORH 20” in 9 hours. Lol
  5. ORH_wxman
    The southern stream vort cluster comes onshore around 12z today in CA so we’ll see if there’s any notable shifts that start on this next run.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Winter hill scorpion bowl party that run
  7. ORH_wxman
    I’m loving seeing those midlevels close off and get going south of us. That’s a bullish sign tonight.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Crushage. Details still TBD but that was a very good 00z suite. If we can repeat something similar at 12z, then I may start honking.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Correct. If the upper low wasn’t elongated when it goes south of us, it would tuck everything in closer and the flow in the MLs would be more SE and that’s going to be useless. The elongated low keeps that baroclinic zone further south (and east).
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah maybe…certainly close. Something like the NAM just a little further south would be pretty epic too. Essentially what you’re going for if we’re trying for the unicorn is to get that midlevel flow out of the east before it warms above 0C and at the same time we’re turning the lower levels more NE with a stall somewhere south of the islands. You need an entirely closed upper level going underneath LI elongated east-west.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Still quite a bit of heavy precip streaming north. Hopefully some of you can flip and grab a few inches of paste
  12. ORH_wxman
    Ukie came east a good bit…but not a surprise after 12z’s adventures into Tolland. Ukie is dumping like 4” of QPF on WaWa and berks…lol. Prob mostly snow.
  13. ORH_wxman
    You guys look at clown maps way too much. The GGEM was about as classic as it gets for a pretty widespread heavy snow impact. The H5 was awesome, the midlevels were awesome. I certainly wouldn’t trust the GGEM’s lowest level thermals…prob one of the worst models for that (long with Ukie)
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah. Might be a little less in SE areas as BL is pretty marginal for a long time. But from a higher view, the GGEM has all the right stuff for a widespread hit…closes off everything south of us and rips back some great fronto in the CCB.
  15. ORH_wxman
    That’s an epic GGEM solution. Closes off everything well south of SNE.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Nice large area of 2 feet for CT that run
  17. ORH_wxman
    Congrats buried bodies on the icon
  18. ORH_wxman
    That’s the first run it’s keeping the low east of GON…pretty snowy for interior.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah not really buying it. More just entertaining fodder before the real models come out. It does highlight some of the model guidance uncertainty though. We keep getting different variations of this storm.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Eventually it would but it’s prob going to redevelop somewhere out east when that intense vortmax down in VA keeps pressing eastward. Dec ‘92 did that too…initially captured near Delmarva but then redeveloped east and pinwheeled up to a position south of MVY where it rotted for a bit before finally drifting off E or ESE.
  21. ORH_wxman
    It’s not snowing due east of the low…maybe northeast of the low but that is fairly normal as long as you are north of the midlevel warm front which is pretty clear in this run…
  22. ORH_wxman
    I mean, if we start capturing this off the coast of SE NJ, then all of the sudden the parallels become a bit more striking. When we’re flinging the low way east before capture, it wasn’t all that similar…but if you start capturing down there and driving the ULL into MD or VA, then you quickly have a different beast.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Lol NAM trying to pull a Dec ‘92 there…capturing the low way down south there.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Ray going Socrates on us. Very well said though.
  25. ORH_wxman
    It delays the capture…again, we need Goldilocks scenario…capture too early and it’s congrats Hunter Mountain, capture too late and it’s a non-event (or light event). It looks like it’s just about to get captured at 90 so that solution would probably slay on the next couple of panels.
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