ORH_wxman

12z NAM gone wild with Tuesday morning front runner wave.

Prob more like 2-3”….you’d need temps in the teens and 20s to get the higher 3 or 4 to 1 sleet ratios…you’d want some pixie dust mixed in. Maybe over the interior has a few spots that have decent sleet ratios but most spots that are pretty cold in low levels are going to see some snow on the front end.

Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible.

That’s not where the change is coming from. It’s coming from the PV pressing early on and then later it’s the retrograding NAO block.

That was a pretty frigid 06z GFS run for 2/23. Look at the surface too. Upper teens in interior MA N of pike. Won’t see much liquid on that.

Pretty classic Miller B look there. Ensembles have shown some transient ridging in Rockies so as long as that is there, that will remain an interesting date.

Some @OceanStWx ensemble sensitivity number would be good for this one. I’d bet that shortwave going through the lakes on Monday night plays a significant role. I’d assume some of the west coast troughing also plays a role and probably a bit of the PV itself.

That system trending further south has been helping 2/23 tick colder because it drives the arctic boundary further south behind it. So we’ll want to see that keep trending deeper/south with the shortwave.

Yeah it’s been cooling but I feel like us pike-dwellers will want to see that go up quite a bit more before expecting plowable snowfall. These strong SWFE with big SE ridges rarely stay on the colder trend. They start eating away like 10 miles at a time once we get inside of 3 days or so. But who knows…maybe this one will keep trending colder longer than we’re used to.

Not as good but still a chance. A lot of the members have sharp cutoffs near the CT/MA border…but I’d say maybe 1 in 4 gave you warning criteria. And maybe 40% advisory or more.

I was surprised to see about half of the 50 members have warning snows to the pike now on that 18z run for 2/23. Been a steady cooling trend all day. I think we’ll need it to continue though because you know the inevitable north tick is coming with this at some point in the next couple of days.

It was mostly fine. Near climo (maybe a tick below) except maybe central and outer Cape/Islands. But far from a disaster It was much worse down on the south coast of CT/RI. I think sometimes people forget that the latitude of places like Taunton are the same as far N CT so in a latitude winter like 07-08, they won’t be nearly as bad as places like southern CT/RI

I’d agree with that. There haven’t been a ton of winters that were monsters in the interior but kind of meh in SE MA…but I think if you start in 2002-2003 the skew would be even worse because 1992-93 and 2000-01 were monsters over interior but for SE MA weren’t that great. Esp once you were more than 10 miles south of BOS.

Yeah he was living in Cambridge in 2015…. CT is a tougher call. Was it great there in an absolute sense? Prob falls a little short unless we’re talking the northeast 1/3rd of the state. 2012-13? I think this one would have to be considered great only because it had the best CT snowstorm in over 100 years (1888). It did have some other solid storms too like 12/29/12. 2010-11 was a truly great winter in CT as well. Multiple big dogs with CT getting jackpots in multiple storms.

Biggest hinderance to a big ice storm is QPF. It’s not that much QPF in this system south of the main WAA fronto band which falls mostly in the form of snow/sleet. You’d also typically like to see the mesolow aspect tilted more NE to SW instead of E-W. The latter makes the ageo drain less efficient and slower.

18z GFS is ticking a bit colder again.

His area didn’t get much in the October bomb. Pretty much was a non-event for anyone along and SE of a BOS-PVD line. Maybe a few slushy inches in some of hillier spots around there but nothing like it was near 495 and westward.

NNE had a nice series of storms during that stretch. Northern part of SNE cashed in a bit too. Down in the pike region we only got the 1/23 happy ending for anything shovelable (had 5.3” here)…but once you got into CT/RI there wasn’t much. Maybe a couple inches for some areas in that one and not much else.

There’s def been a subtle trend colder in the lower levels for 2/23. Midlevels have been sort of static. Maybe a slight tick cooler as we’ve seen a little more snow/sleet solutions to start down here. Probably in terms of “high impact” threats, this one will have to be watched really closely for cold tuck in eastern zones. They don’t pan out all the time, but we’ve seen a couple or three in the last 5 or 6 years where it goes flash freeze…and there’s a risk in this one too. A place like BOS could get a couple inches of snow/sleet on the front end before 36F rain but then crash to 27F in a span of 1-2 hours…with precip not totally shut off yet. That’s dangerous…so even a 1 in 4 chance of that happening is worth watching.

Lot of guidance is showing that cold tuck draining into the interior. Gonna have to watch that because if you get one of those barrier jets developing all the way up to like 950 or even 925, it can go pretty far southwest.

Ukie was a nice snow thump for pike region. GGEM was a pelletfest

Tblizz just threw his phone out of the car

Biggest barrier for many moving to NNE (who want to) is economic opportunity. Esp outside of the hubs like PWM/BTV and maybe you could include some of the southern NH towns like ASH/MHT/PSM. Though the increase in remote work maybe be helping some for those who want a new landscape. But remote work is very white collar so that isn’t an opportunity for everyone. But it still holds true that many just hate the cold up there too…lol. I def wouldn’t mind but so many other people I know who go up there to ski or vacation in the summer are always like “winters are too damned cold up here…I couldn’t live full time here”. I’d prob live in Rangeley in a bachelor pad if I wasn’t married.

There is definitely a brand of poster who cares more about being “first” or “calling it” from a long ways out more than just looking at data and formulating a changing hypothesis from it. Usually those types of posters end up looking silly in the long run though because they will be more resistant to change if the data starts going the other way out of fear of “looking wrong”….honestly, most people don’t give a shit if someone is “wrong” about a 10-15 day prog.

At least we had some 70s that month too. The worst would be like a march 2014. Frigid but mostly cold rain when the precip does come.