ORH_wxman

Sneaking some teens into N MA. That’s gonna be interesting to follow.

Yeah almost like HRRR

18z Euro has an almost continuous cold drain once the event starts. ORH is 30F moderate snow to 27F pellets to 23F freezing drizzle/mist in a 12-18 hour period.

It gets really cold after the first pulse of precip too. It has upper teens in ORH county Thursday and sub-freezing down into CT Thursday evening….gonna have to watch for that 2nd round of precip. Even if it’s only a few tenths, if it’s falling as ZR in the 20s, that’ll be nasty.

Sometimes it produces especially weenie solutions when it decides to hang out with Crazy Uncle at happy hour.

I’ve noticed the PV has been extending/elongating just a hair SE on these colder runs lowering the heights in NE. I’m not entirely sure on the reason we are seeing those little wobbles. Might be how it’s interacting with today’s shortwave. I think Tip’s overall larger view has been very correct on this one…that PV is a monster and isn’t going to move very easily so it’s that versus the western trough and the forces are pretty equal at the moment. But since your area in the NH border region down to mine near the pike is right on the line, we’re sweating these 15 mile wobbles whereas nobody in NYC gives a crap and powderfreak doesn’t give a crap either…it’s mostly been the same solutions for them outside the “marginal zone” where we are.

18z euro def tickled a little colder. Has a couple inches into N CT tomorrow night and about 5-6 for the pike.

It’s amazing how many airmasses have lacked low level cold this year even when aloft is decently cold. So many winters we’ll have random events with 528 to 534 thickness and temps in the 20s. But this year, we’ll be like 528 thicknesses with 850 temps of -6 and 925 temps of -3 with sfc temps in the mid 30s with white rain falling. Lol. Cannot buy a surface high in even a half-reasonable position this winter. Tomorrow’s event is one of the first times all year where we have a good sfc high…ironically we lack a decent antecedent airmass ahead of it so we are still struggling anyway….hopefully one of these events beyond tomorrow can do the trick.

Mostly marginal I think until we get the cold drain later in the event prior to round 2.

Scooter highs of yore…

Yeah it has trended surprisingly little in the past 2-3 days....guess we'll see if we can get one last colder push for us pike to rt 2 dwellers, but I doubt any major changes are coming. I kind of expect some tiny little ticks north/warmer in the final 24 hours here, but who knows....maybe it will throw us a bone for 6 hours tomorrow evening. As much as we joke about the model dopamine drip, I do actually like watching snow falling from the sky, so it would be nice to get 6 hours of moderate to heavy snowfall for once this winter. Been an utter dearth of snow lasting more than about 2 hours this season and a vast majority of them were like today....33F grass/car top jobs that start melting immediately after it falls.

EPS has been hammering NNE the last few cycles....ski areas should be looking great heading into 2nd week of March. We'll see if we can finally cash in here...we haven't seen ensemble runs this snowy all season for SNE, but we obviously have less wiggle room than NNE in this pattern.

Yeah it was super zonked the last couple runs. Synoptically, it seemed very likely it would come south some.

The 12/11 event while we were waiting for the epic 12/15-12/31 period was the equivalent of Apollo’s jabs on Drago in the opening part of the first round. Everyone’s thinking it’s going according to plan….

That one is worth watching. Even down to here. The antecedent airmass is solid so it wouldn’t take much to turn that into a really good storm. Of course, that would require us catching even a mild break which has been about as effective as Apollo Creed against Drago this winter.

Even there i’d still prefer the base of that block to have a bit more latitude than it does (see how it’s almost coming in from the southeast instead of more from the east?). But yeah, verbatim you see a really strong 50/50 response to it which would serve us well. I just want to have more wiggle room as we get closer.

Euro will “win” the battle but in 70/30 fashion as to surgically give us little or no snow and keep most of the goods N of rt 2 or MA/NH border.

Pretty decent pike thump but there’s not a lot of wiggle room. I’d love to get 3 or 4 inches though before the pellets.

East based blocking tends to be better when we have a serviceable pacific pattern. When the pac is mostly dogshit like it will be coming up, you want that block to maximize confluence and cold in southeast Canada…that would be in the form of a greenland/Davis strait block that comes in from the east. We do NOT want the block coming in from the south, that just won’t get it done with the pacific like it is. It needs to come in more from the east bexause that will be way more efficient at pinning the 50/50 subvortex there.

Did you think it was going away? Pretty much everyone keeps saying the pacific isn’t changing. Our help is going to have to come from the Atlantic side which already leaves New England with not much wiggle room. NYC is even less.

Yeah there is a complete disconnect synoptically right now with NAM and others. It’s basically dryslotting us before any real robust precip. That’s separate than a simple sounding disagreement.

They taint your area. NAM might be too far north synoptically..which is the thing to watch. We know it can handle the elevated warm layers well, but it only matters if it is correct synoptically. If it is simply just too far north with the storm, then it will be wrong. I think Euro/GFS are likely too cold aloft here but the magnitude will matter a lot…esp for those more up near NH border.

GFS decided to cool slightly. Decent thump for MA. At some point either the NAM or the globals are going to make some noticeable moves.

2nd batch is where the cold tuck could be dangerous. Still not seeing much trend so far at 12z. NAM still an absolute furnace and we don’t even get much precip from round 1. Dryslotted. RGEM cooled a tick (lot of sleet after brief snow) ICON cooled even more, has a pretty decent thump on the pike kind of like the euro. Im guessing NAM is too amped but the colder models are too flat if someone held a gun to my head.