ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Looks colder in low levels too. All of it may be related though…just like better omega leads to colder temps, colder temps initially (or via advection during the early stages) make a tighter thermal gradient is going to lead to better QPF too.
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And equating it to someone posting ensemble analysis was pretty horrendous.
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Yeah they frequently don’t pan out because you need the low levels saturated which inherently is difficult when you are advecting in colder air. But this is an example of when it’s more likely to verify than usual.
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The stronger the NAO develops behind that threat, the more likely it is to come in colder. Basically, if the Archambault signal comes in more robust, we’ll likely have a better shot at snowing there since that 50/50 would be doing a better job of wave breaking that retrograding block to accelerate it. If the NAO phase change looks weaker, then the storm is warmer.
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The 2/21 impulse actually has two parts to it (kind of like how 2/23 does too). That second part is more for NNE. But recently a more southern wave has tried to develop ahead of round 2.
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Those hilly areas north of the Merritt might be a decent spot tomorrow over to Ginxy and N RI hills.
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Haven’t really seen any 12z trend. NAM went warmer, GFS went colder, GGEM was maybe a tick colder but really close and Ukie looked a tick warmer as it comes back to earth a bit from being the cold outlier at 00z when it had warning snows into CT.
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Other guidance has it at 12z so far, just not nearly as robust as the NAM. But GFS has a little stripe too of 1-2”. Something to watch anyway.
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How is that analogous to posting 384h OP runs? Good grief…ensembles are posted all the time. Just because they didn’t verify, doesn’t mean they are invalid discussion and they are certainly not the same as posting an operational run that far out.
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The thing that makes it somewhat “dangerous” is the cold tuck accelerates right before that 2nd pulse of precip comes in on Thursday night. So if some areas had warmed up to mid 30s or something like that after the initial snow/sleet, a lot of people will think the worst is over but then all of the sudden it dumps back down to 28 and the next wave of precip is coming in. That’s how it could be especially nasty. GFS actually shows this too at 12z.
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A few inches of snow here turns into an absolute paint peeler on the GFS. It’s cold in the low levels.
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GFS is coming in colder now too. So it doesn’t seem like the 06z runs were necessarily a start of a consistent trend. Lot of wobbling going on really if you look at the past 4-5 cycles.
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Icon actually came in a decent tick colder. Has a nasty cold tuck over eastern areas too…temps crashing into 20s. That’s prob the top hazard in SNE…flash freeze potential for the areas that go from a quick burst to snow to IP to cold 34-35F rain but then it quickly falls to 27F with little notice. Still a possibility this ends up as mostly a sleet bomb too after an inch or two of snow.
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I mean, it has. This 2/23 event is already quite a bit south from what it was 2-3 days ago. But we’re fighting other variables too. The lead 2/21 wave isn’t the only thing affecting this.
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Rgem has the Tuesday morning stuff too but much weaker with it. Maybe a coating to an inch type deal south of pike.
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Keep the politics off the wx side please.
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Would be pretty fitting. Throws a tantrum and then is shoveling 4” of snow the next day.
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NAM tries to give CT/RI/SE MA an advisory event tomorrow morning
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Euro took a bit of a harder trend north in the midlevels, but agreed it’s not a multi cycle thing yet. Could easily go back south at 12z.
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It’s called this dude…
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Euro just came in significantly warmer now at 06z. This trend was expected though…we kept saying it was coming. It was just a matter of how far south we could tick it first. Not too optimistic here for much snow. I think a lot of IP. Though if we’re not careful on the north ticks, it could still end up at mostly cold rain here too. But I do think that PV confluence will put a cap on things.
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Ukie was quite a bit colder than 12z. Actually has warning snows down into N CT. Seems like some mixed results at 00z. Crazy Uncle have been on the bottle though too….tries to dump like 4-5” in the clipper prior to the 2/23 storm too in the pike region. My gut still says mostly IP here though. I’d want to see most models going 00 Ukie tomorrow before pulling the trigger in plowable snowfall.
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I’ll add that we did get a couple of good events in Mar ‘99 too as that month turned very blocky…but the big ocean storm was Feb 25-26, 1999
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That was late Feb 1999. Actually hit all the way back into central areas but the Cape got the worst of it.
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There will probably be a relatively narrow band (say 50 miles wide?) that gets 1”+ of QPF but I can’t see lots of half inch type totals on either side of it…but this will prob be longer duration with a lot of hazards to watch in the areas where it goes to IP/ZR. As we already know, freezing drizzle/mist for 6 hours is bad enough even if it totaling 0.2” of QPF.
