ORH_wxman

Did you think it was going away? Pretty much everyone keeps saying the pacific isn’t changing. Our help is going to have to come from the Atlantic side which already leaves New England with not much wiggle room. NYC is even less.

Yeah there is a complete disconnect synoptically right now with NAM and others. It’s basically dryslotting us before any real robust precip. That’s separate than a simple sounding disagreement.

They taint your area. NAM might be too far north synoptically..which is the thing to watch. We know it can handle the elevated warm layers well, but it only matters if it is correct synoptically. If it is simply just too far north with the storm, then it will be wrong. I think Euro/GFS are likely too cold aloft here but the magnitude will matter a lot…esp for those more up near NH border.

GFS decided to cool slightly. Decent thump for MA. At some point either the NAM or the globals are going to make some noticeable moves.

2nd batch is where the cold tuck could be dangerous. Still not seeing much trend so far at 12z. NAM still an absolute furnace and we don’t even get much precip from round 1. Dryslotted. RGEM cooled a tick (lot of sleet after brief snow) ICON cooled even more, has a pretty decent thump on the pike kind of like the euro. Im guessing NAM is too amped but the colder models are too flat if someone held a gun to my head.

All about how the block retrogrades. If it sort of stays shunted south of greenland, then it’s not gonna help us much and it will prob stay fairly mild. If it can retro into greenland, then you will get a better response south of it in SE Canada and New England which would prob give us several opportunities. But if it’s one of these deals where it meanders over the North Atlantic and then tries to poke into the Davis strait from the south, that’s mostly hot garbage in a -PNA. Most of the uglier solutions are some version of that where the fun solutions are not.

Looks a little like winter at least

Euro suite is the coldest now. Pretty safe to toss I’d say. Unless we see others all of the sudden come back south today.

Steady snow here. Maybe a few tenths.

I’ll be bummed if I can’t crack 10”…but we take the small victories where we can this winter.

18z euro likes the pike. Pretty similar to RAP/HRRR. Not overly robust, maybe a couple inches in that zone with C-1” outside of it.

2/28 solution was run off runnawayiceberg’s computer.

18z GFS drank too many beers while grilling dinner this balmy evening. It decided to go full-on weenie with 2/26 and 2/28 back to back.

3k seemed to start as snow while 12k was a furnace. My gut says we don’t get much snow in the pike region for 2/23, but Everytime I convince myself of that, the non-NAM runs keep singing a different tune. Hopefully we get a little more clarity tonight.

Here’s the 3k sounding near BDL at 09z. Looks pretty cold actually just off the deck.

That’s a map that starts at 1pm Tuesday so it would miss anything overnight and tomorrow morning.

Yeah it’s really deep lift. Kind of weird how strong and deep the omega is on the NAM but not so much other guidance. It does seem to be leading the trend on 2/21 though. But prob good to hedge quite a bit here.

3k beefed up too from 12z.

Starts ripping in CT by midnight or so. Could be an interesting sensible wx shock…people grilling dinner at 55-60F in CT this evening to parachutes falling with several inches already OTG when they wake up. Other mesos continue to be a bit more tame but they still have it. More like 1-2” or so.

I don’t think it’s full-on winter yet on guidance…we’re still dealing with how the NAO block manifests and interacts with the pacific state. There will definitely be chances but we could easily mix in a warm storm or two. We have a much better shot at trending storms colder than previously, but that doesn’t mean they all will. Theres a lot of uncertainty there. At the very least, there’s more reason it stay up for the 00z runs these days. We’ll see if we can get this block to retrograde into a good position ala 2018. But I’m still leery of a more subdued and warmer version of the pattern.

It just doesn’t really rip it southeast like some guidance which is what the “tuck” part of cold tuck is really defined by. It actually cools during the day Thursday over the interior though…obvious cold drain going on there but not the same as the tuck south/southeast.

I think we could start an obs thread late tonight as a compromise. The model analysis can stay in here for the next 12 hours on the 2/21 stuff.

Looks colder in low levels too. All of it may be related though…just like better omega leads to colder temps, colder temps initially (or via advection during the early stages) make a tighter thermal gradient is going to lead to better QPF too.

And equating it to someone posting ensemble analysis was pretty horrendous.

Yeah they frequently don’t pan out because you need the low levels saturated which inherently is difficult when you are advecting in colder air. But this is an example of when it’s more likely to verify than usual.