ORH_wxman

Correct. Yeah I’m this storm there is good clustered agreement which is why the mean and median are roughly the same, but in storms with more disagreement, they will definitely diverge some.

In this case, there’s isn’t much difference between median and mean, but when you have a handful of members skewing the mean, it can be very relevant. It’s a good feature to have.

That’s a cool feature. Didn’t know they had 50th percentile on wxbell. In many senses, that is superior to a mean.

OP run looked a little blockier than 12z so not a total surprise. Prob why EPS followed suit.

Even a foot is pretty much deep winter. What the average pack for Stowe village (not the mountain) in late Feb? 18ish? But the foot you have is obscenely dense.

Could be a real goodie for SE MA.

I think you mean 1921? The November all-timer that crushed all the way down to south of PVD? But yeah, that was a coastal too. Kind of like a colder version of 2008.

1973 was actually a coastal too but not like 2008 was. It was more elongated but def still a coastal storm.

Yeah you want to see at least 1.5” of QPF for a big icer…preferably higher than 2” but this storm had pretty efficient accretion down there due to generally light rates so it prob could’ve been a real biggie if it had even 1.4-1.6 of QPF. If your accretion efficiency was 80% which is above the median of 72%, then 2 inches of ice QPF will produce 1.6” of flat ice accretion which is about 0.70” of radial ice (radial ice is usually about 40% of flat ice). In 2008, I measured close to an inch of radial ice, which was incredible considering we didn’t have super efficient accretion rates in that one….but shear QPF overwhelmed the efficiency issues in that. We were putting up 3-4” of QPF.

That’s an all-timer type storm. Top 5. Hard to be too disappointed in a winter that produces a top 5 storm…regardless of the rest of it. At least my own personal grade would be at least a C. I prob couldn’t go much higher because I do enjoy having snowpack for a chunk of the winter and snow around the holidays…both of which were an utter dumpster fire this year.

We’re maxed out after 2008. We’ll never see another like that in our lifetimes. It was a life storm for ORH hills over to far NE MA and far S NH.

Not super similar. That one was more of a straight overrunning setup and didn’t involve a compact shortwave running into confluence like this one. It did have that northeast to southwest gradient in temps. This setup is not super common. CIPS said top analog was Feb 21, 2005 and that was a 5-9” type event for a chunk of SNE though it was clearly weaker than this modeled event…both aloft and at the sfc.

The Euro suite is definitely ugly for 3/4 all of the sudden. Very strong cutter signal on the EPS…other guidance isn’t as bad but I didn’t love the 12z look today overall. Hopefully it trends back in the next few cycles.

So it would still be an F if you got, say, 17 inches in the Feb 28th storm and then just a few scraps in March? I guess the rest of the season was bad enough to maybe warrant such a grade but 17 inches is a big storm…esp for the CT river valley.

Nice temp gradient today…80 at IAD and 78 at BWI

The only “threat” that made it anywhere close was the 1/23 “happy ending” event. That wasn’t a big deal though. Maybe 2-4” with some 5-6” lollis.

We never got a good threat inside d6 in December. Unless you count 12/16 for elevated interior north of the pike. But that excluded about 90% of the posters in SNE.

It’s not really a pure inverted trough. It’s basically that second trailing shortwave diving in and prolonging the CCB mid-level easterly flow but it sort of forms an IVT at the sfc during that phase which makes sense…it’s trying to “pull back” the sfc low because of the upper forcing from the trailing shortwave.

Maybe closer to 2”. Super dense though.

Picked Up another half inch in the OES earlier. Not really in the band anymore but still some steady snizzle. Everything covered really nice. Temp rotting at 24F

Kuchera is better in marginal events like last night. It almost always weenies out too much in colder events.

Yeah it’s definitely possible some places score huge totals in this but it requires many things to go right. So obviously one shouldn’t *expect* it. All model guidance has the initial thump…that’s gonna produce low end warning totals on its own most likely. 5-8/6-10 type stuff. Now if we’re trying to go 12-18, that requires a bit of extra forcing from IVT or CCB…the two kind of smear together eventually in the euro but most guidance has at least a semblance of CCB snow…esp up in MA. So there’s a reason to think at least some areas are going to get double digits…where that is widespread or not remains to be seen but it’s certainly on the table.

Boomers grew up thinking -6 monthly departures and well above normal snows were long term climo. Millennials grew up thinking 20-burger storms grew on trees. Our cynical generation knows better.

Good trailing shortwave interaction really extending the snow on this run.

This is what getting an inordinate number of 20 burgers will do to expectations.