ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Ripping under this stuff. Sticking to all surfaces including pavement
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Pretty much all snow here now. Still a couple pellets mixed in but nice fatties.
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Mashed potatoes This stuff is starting to stick again after shoveling
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Fatties here now. Prob 70/30 snow/sleet mix.
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Yeah just deleted about 20 posts. People can b**ch about this winter in any number of other threads that host that type of discourse. We don’t need to turn this one into another.
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3ish? It’s prob actually lower now because of sleet compaction but we had about 3” at 3am while it was still ripping.
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Sleet snow mix picking back up here.
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Even here I can hear the occasional sleet pellet or rimed snowflake break the silence. But still ripping here.
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Pouring snow here. Prob around 3 inches eyeballing but hard to tell in dark.
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Hopefully you hold on for several hours…your gain is also ours up to the northeast.
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We’ll see if the mix line slows down a bit as good lift keeps moving in. That’ll be key also for areas further north around here.
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It also could be the type of thing where it’s not 100% sleet. Like a sleet/snow mix at times. Either way it will be interesting to watch. The warm layer never really gets that warm N of pike. Some areas don’t get warmer than like +0.5C. So there is a small upside bust potential there.
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It should fill in a decent amount in the next 3-4 hours.
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Yeah or it could be the type of situation where we see the sleet line oscillate quite a bit…like we get duped into thinking it’s rocketing north and then it gets beaten back 10 or 20 miles at a time when good lift is doing its thing. I’ve noticed a lot of looks like this on the ptype maps because of how marginal it is…it can’t decide if it’s snow or not
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I’ve been examining soundings a bit more and if there’s a bust potential at least here near the pike and into metrowest Boston region, it’s that snow would hang on longer….the warm layer is extremely elevated. It’s actually up around H7 and not even the usual “very high up” 725-750 level. NAM even has the warmest layer closer to 675mb….and it’s super thin. It stays like that for a few hours in the 08z to 11z timeframe.
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Yeah I’m not biting on any positive busts here. My guess is 2-3” front end here before the sleet and then we add another inch or two of crapola. But I’ll be keeping an eye on it tonight. If sleet holds off until like 9-10z, then we might pull off 4-6” on the front end
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Looks like BDL current wetbulb is about 33.
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You want the best lift to line up with the snow growth zone (and be saturated). So on Paul’s sounding you see these bars sticking out horizontally from the left, those are omega bar which denote lift in the atmosphere….we want those to be at the same level as the SGZ but they were below the SGZ which means you’ll get crappier flakes. It does improve the next hour (as he showed in a later post).
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There will likely be more than one shot in this pattern. Obv big signal is there near 10th and just beyond but it looks pretty ripe for additional potential through the equinox anyway.
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Both were trying to hit your area down to metrowest harder with CCB tomorrow. I’m Still not biting on that but it’s gotten more interesting today.
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NAM is trending quite a bit better with the thump. Esp pike region into NH border area.
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Very similar tracks actually. Primary went into about CLE/ERI in that one and the secondary popped just quick enough to turn a 6-10” event into a 12-18” event. Yeah…too bad we didn’t have a real airmass like that one did.
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Let’s close those MLs off about 30-40 miles southwest and watch BOS go 12/9/05-light for a few hours.
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8 or 9 to 1 sugar there.
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Still going wild with the thump in CT up into ORH region.
