ORH_wxman

Yeah I may be wrong lol. Stronger shortwave May overcome it.

GFS is going to continue to go south this run for Saturday.

He knows it is disingenuous. He doesn’t care. Anyone with any modicum of meteorology knowledge knows the pattern has been quite different since about 2/23. There’s a reason CNE/NNE has gone gangbusters in that period and there’s actually been some snow events in SNE as well with potential for more.

Gonna need some positive trends at 12z imho for Saturday to be a legit threat.

2-3 days apart isn’t that weird at all. Esp for March with those blockier patterns and shorter wavelengths. Now if they were 24 hours apart it would be much harder.

Nice western ridge on that one.

Keep this thread clean and on topic. This is an actual storm thread....we have a banter thread

Lets get a 3/29/84 redux

I also think there's two issues that I wasn't clear on above....the trend out west got better on all the guidance. We saw more wave spacing than on the 00z runs. However, some of the guidance like the Euro and GGEM got blockier out east which shunted the system south of us so we weren't able to take advantage of the better trends out west for the 3/11 threat.

Euro/EPS trend wasn't very good, but as long as it doesn't keep moving that way at 00z, I'm not really inclined to buy a full-on whiff for storm #1 yet. Could easily come back north a bit which certainly wouldn't be unusual this season. But that isn't really what I was looking for from that suite at 12z....it's not on an island either.

EPS might like the 2nd wave more than the first one, kind of like the OP.

Nice Ray jackpot. Anyways, total clown range on that one...we'll see how the 3/11 deal trends as that will impact anything behind it most likely.

Yeah it's going to try and amplify the trailing energy now that round 1 was pretty weak.

I'll be shocked if the Euro doesn't whiff southeast this run...looks super compressed/blocky.

It's only the GFS that tucked it....we have 2 whiffs southeast this 12z suite too (Ukie/GGEM)....There's still plenty of variance in model solutions at the moment despite getting a little bit more clarity in the past 12-24 hours.

Well the GGEM did something similar...its the inability for the shortwave/ULL to produce sufficient downstream ridging to curl this thing northward....look at the heights on the eastern fringe there...they are going south in Maine and trying to go north near ACK....they can't get any further north because of that confluence. Need just a little more room.

Ukie having the same trend out west. Clearly this is something all 12z guidance sees. Every single model at 12z has had the same trend out west of amplifying that ridge a little more with a bit more wave spacing. That is good because it increases the upside in this storm if we're looking for a big dog. (the storm actually whiffs us south on the Ukie...but that is mostly irrelevant at the moment)

This will be a big interior hit this run...kind of tucky...but obviously we're not worried about details yet. I like the ridge trend this run out west.

I'm a lot more interested in H5 than the sfc presentation at the moment anyway....we know how the skill degrades on model guidance as we go toward the sfc...esp further out in time.

Little extra wave spacing makes all the difference...lets that thing go to town just south of us.

ICON went wild that run.

Taken with a grain of salt for now...but the trend of the JV models at 12z seems to be burying the trailing energy offshore a little west which is helping the ridging in between the two. We'll see if the varsity team follows suit.

I feel like every neighborhood has a place like that. There's a house around the corner from me that will do the exact same thing you describe....my front yard has some protection from afternoon sun, so it can take a while to melt out, but this guy literally might take an extra week to melt out. His yard just doesn't get any sun at all except early morning between around 7-10am and then it's nothing the rest of the day. It will look ridiculous sometimes when the entire street is melted out except piles/patches and this guy literally has like a 4-6" level snowpack covering the entire lawn.

Latitude has mattered more than elevation this winter even though in many events, elevation helped a lot....but it only helped when the mid-level temps were cold enough. The persistence of it has been pretty unusual but it does happen once in a while. We had a decent number of winters recently where ORH was absolutely crushing areas like Leominster/Lancaster/Bolton/Clinton/Shirley despite only averaging a few more inches than they do per winter....we were kind of due for one of these to regress things back toward longer term relative climo comparing each location to eachother.

In March 2001, I remember later that month you'd have south facing steep slopes completely bare while an open flat field had literally about 27-30 inches of pack and in the woods, it was still over 3 feet. One of the more egregious examples I've seen of late season snow pack differences just based on proximity/angle/exposure to the March sun.