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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    That run still looks pretty good for midlevel goodies up there
  2. ORH_wxman
    Reggie still looks like ka-ka.....Icon coming in decently east of 06z through 78h
  3. ORH_wxman
    Old EE rule. Back in the day it was a good combo. Hopefully today we have less volatility on the model solutions....the EPS has been relatively steady though. I'd like to see the spread close a bit while maintaining that Cape track.
  4. ORH_wxman
    That was a great one for me. Getting 10" on Friday and then 24 hours later we're nuking another 16" (most of it fell in like 6 hours)
  5. ORH_wxman
    Actually a pretty close match to the 06z Euro at 90h when the run truncated.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Clown range NAM is looking a bit east of 06z with that southern stream running pretty far ahead. Northern stream is dropping into the OH Valley though so it would def rip back NNW at some point...
  7. ORH_wxman
    '97 also didnt have as much of a low appendage to the northwest...it had a minor one but it got absorbed pretty quickly when the storm bombed....that could happen in this one too, but again, that requires a max bombing out in a good location with the primary sinking a little further south....we don't want it holding on longer like on those GFS solutions overnight.
  8. ORH_wxman
    '97 had a perfect ULL track and max deepening location....it was a unicorn. There's a reason it is the top standard for late season snow events in eastern areas.
  9. ORH_wxman
    '97 had no airmass either, but the storm bombed out in the right spot to pull in a little bit of colder air that was lurking in Ontario/western Quebec (plus dynamical cooling too)....similar thing will need to happen in this one.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Bottom line is you're going to need huge rates in this one (thankfully it looks like that might happen) outside of the highest terrain. You also need a good track. Everything will have to go right to get a higher end storm or it could end up as a lot of lower end warning criteria or advisory criteria slop (with maybe some double digits in the hills/mountains).
  11. ORH_wxman
    Quite a different setup. That one had a beast high pressure up in Quebec/Nova Scotia.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah here's the 2 most relevant panels for SNE....you can see how the tightest cluster is still near that out Cape/Islands area.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Def east of 00z but the spread increased. There’s more offshore and more inland members. The tightest cluster is still near the cape but maybe slightly east of the tightest 00z cluster.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Looks like end of 06z euro run is a bit more subdued than 00z. We’ll see if that makes a difference on the ensemble run in a bit.
  15. ORH_wxman
    We also don’t want that northern stream dropping in any earlier. In fact, I already think it’s dropping in too early and the only reason the euro/Ukie runs were good is because the southern stream took a wide turn. If they didn’t, this would be up the Hudson valley or CT valley. Looks like eps is putting this on the Cape/Islands still. There’s still a number of inland members…though only 2 of them are west of ORH. Most run them over BOS area and the largest cluster remains on the cape.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Rgem still looks pretty ugly. I’ll bet GGEM comes in running into SNE again.
  17. ORH_wxman
    It has a better look in Maine than the globals. That would’ve been really interesting if we could go out further.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I think you mean 2011.
  19. ORH_wxman
    EPS lost a lot of interior lows but it has a much bigger cluster near and over the cape now.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yes
  21. ORH_wxman
    There's definite upside bust potential in W CT with that ULL. Too bad there wasn't a fresher airmass in place....prob would be talking more widespread double digit potential.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Palisades may change to rain at 6300 feet, though it probably won't last super long as snow levels drop again later Friday....Alpine may stay all snow as snow levels prob don't rise above 7k (or if they do, it's quite brief). Still looking at 4 to 8 feet of new snow there.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Upton doesn't cover Hartford county
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah was just gonna post that it's very similar to the Euro OP. You have that leading vort focusing the low pressure there and then it gets yanked back....might not take quite as wide a turn as Euro, but the result was similar enough
  25. ORH_wxman
    12z EPS was better than 00z. 00z took a tighter turn south of LI which made it a bit less snowy....it was 06z that was quite a bit east, but the 06z OP run only went to 90h so we never saw it's final solution. I think this is going to move around a bit though over the next few runs.
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