ORH_wxman

No good high to hold in the airmass....which is ok...I wouldn't call it all that cold., but good enough. On the GGEM, the 925 temps start off around -4C to -5C over SNE....during the CCB, they have warmed to -2C or so...and it's definitely not an inverted airmass where the low levels are much colder than aloft.

I am much more concerned about ptype in this system than a whiff....GFS is classic SE on these partial phase scenarios. Notice how all other guidance continues to slowly amp up (sans the Euro which was so zonked yesterday, it has come a little SE)

I ran that one form my basement

Amazing how much the GFS trended south in the past 36-48h....got it's ass totally whipped by the Euro in this one from D4ish unlike the last event. This is why we don't de-emphasize the Euro too much...esp when it's not totally on an island.

Gonna need to see some larger changes IMHO to get a widespread hit like a Feb '13....the synoptics are pretty ugly for the CP, whereas in Feb '13 they weren't. That's why that storm had like 18" of paste east of the CF and 30" west. Anyone to the east of a hypothetical CF in this storm is raining. Best bet for a widespread hit is to get something that starts off as snow over interior and then as the storm bombs over or east of a place like ACK, it flips the CP to paste and they get croaked.

I just checked it, seems ok to me? What issue were you having?

DXR special....those hills just north of the Merritt in SW CT might do ok. Hopefully the shortwave comes in a bit better today....though the 12z NAM didn't really give any confidence to that happening...looked worse than the 06z run.

I’d like to see the ULL center further southeast. Sitting there in between Lake Erie and Huron isn’t ideal for coastal plain folks…caveat is that you have that leading vortmax become strong enough to really render the western ULL irrelevant…but in those scenarios I don’t think you’d get the classic capture until well later.

EPS has been pretty consistent considering the lead time.

This could still track anywhere but I do like the interior zones at the moment. Not a good high pressure setup for the coast. Though once it nukes out the snow line would prob collapse SE to the coast on a favorable track…we’ll see what today brings.

Funny thing is this thread could still deliver…even if it’s next week. The original threat was a large index scale signal, and it just happens the second shortwave in the flow is perhaps better aligned for the major storm than the first one (hence the 10-15th for a date range)

18z euro tickled south…that one is mostly dead imho. Type of threat that really can’t afford any setbacks. Maybe 00z is last gasp for the southern crew to see if it can inch north.

EPS individual lows….very slow moving too. Too bad it’s prob not the final solution but someone will prob get crushed on this whether it’s NNE/NY state or further south.

I also try and look at which models are leading the way. The Euro has been suppressed for several cycles now and the GFS has consistently trended south in the past 4-6 runs compared to when it was bringing the low into SNE. In the March 3-4 storm, it was the GFS which was holding mostly steady (until finally inching north inside of 48h) while the euro was consistently trending south from almost a cutter solution (or really late redeveloper). So it’s easy for me to put more weight on the euro solution for this Saturday’s storm than the previous one at d4 when it looked like it was playing catch-up. Doesn’t mean this one will definitely miss, but it feels like it has a better handle this time.

But you can’t toss the euro like you’ve said a few times. It still should get more weight than other guidance. Just not like 80/20 anymore. Id give it less weight if it was on an island (like it was in the D4 lead time to 3/4) but in the example of this Saturday, it is not on an island. It is suppressed like other guidance is. GFS is furthest north.

And I should caveat, there’s a long way to go on that system. ULL placement has been jumping quite a bit. At least there’s something to track…but I don’t think people should expect it to be snowy. There’s plenty of ways it doesn’t snow on that.

You don’t generally want a strong ULL over Lake Huron. It interferes with where you want any semblance of high pressure resistance to help put. You either want something well NW like over James bay or have it much further southeast like over PA. You can get a decent track with the ULL over Lake Huron, but those are the types of runs where it scours our all the cold. You have a southerly flow in Quebec in response to it so there’s basically no ageo drain until the main storm is really close…which by that time, your cold source has been exhausted and scoured out.

You prob wouldn’t be punting this so easily if you were in CT or equivalent latitude. Next week definitely has more pacific support but it could also end up running west of us too.

I dunno man…that block isn’t some weak entity. It wouldn’t take much weakening for the storm to be a solid hit, but I don’t see why we should expect it to weaken on future runs…it might weaken, but I think it is just as likely it could come in stronger.

Yeah it does. Confluence just crushes it. There’s probably a non-linear response to this though if confluence comes in a little weaker on future runs. You can see how close synoptically it is to a very good storm.

Don’t love the confluence. But the ULL is quite a bit more potent in the lakes

Saturday is def not looking great but non-GFS suite trends were north at 12z. So I wouldn’t write it off yet. But it’s the type of system you want to see another bump north at 00z. Can’t afford any negative trends. Also pending the euro. If that model doesn’t look any better at 12z, it makes it more of a long shot. Despite it not dominating like it used to, it’s still a top tier model.

Well I said we needed some positive trends at 12z and so far we’ve gotten that. We’ll see what the Ukie/euro do but so far it’s been a little better. I do like seeing the ULL pretty far north near CLE/ERI…even more toward BUF on the GFS. Usually it’s hard to whiff us south when you get the ULL that far north.

GGEM looks quite a bit north this run.

Yeah it was def south through about 72h but it’s made up ground