ORH_wxman

No it’s happening closer to us and overwhelming the southern stream…we actually want it to start dropping down a little further west to let the southern stream pinwheel around…kind of delicate though because if you drop it too quickly far west, then it still rips everything into the interior. We need the Goldilocks scenario.

Lack of a good antecedent airmass makes a lot of these nuances matter too. If we had a fresh airmass in place, these little shifts in the northern stream or southern stream would be mostly noise and shifting the jackpots slightly, but it would still be widespread thumpage. I'll say the one good trend today was almost eveyr model gets the ULL under SNE now like Tip mentioned....the part I didn't like was how it got there...northern stream insert happening a bit quicker and further east which pulls that low NW too quick....we want the northenr stream to sort of allow that southern vort to rotate out to the east and establish the baroclinic zone more firmly before fully phasing in.

Slow down the northern stream is prob most important. Doesn't have to slow much....even just a smidge slower than that 12z Euro run would utterly croak most of SNE....as it is, even ORH county westward still did ok, but you can't trend it any more or even those areas will be mostly screwed. Having the southern stream be a little stronger when it takes the wide turn would help too....it would focus the baroclinicity further offshore.

Most of the snow that falls there is when the low is still south of MVY....it starts on a decent track but then gets yanked back really far NW.

If that trend doesn't reverse, we can close the books on most of SNE for this storm...Helderbergs/Catskills special when you have that type of track.

Northern stream is responsible for that violent tug west....it was a clear trend on this run despite the rest of the flow looking flatter. It actually ends up worse thna even 00z because of that for many.

Faster northern stream is a trend I don't like on this run regardless of the final outcome....it makes that primary more influential and something that gets tugged into CT more likely the more we see that trend.

Looks more amped than 06z at 72h but less than 00z....we'll see if that sticks. Don't like that the northern stream is starting to speed up though

Only out to 48h, but it looks like 06z so far which was less amped than 00z.

His technology is still in 1997, he doesn't know how to post pics on a forum yet.

Having potential beats a boring pattern for sure....it's just too bad we've not been able to get some good polar or arctic highs timed up with any of our threats. Yeah, its been a torch winter, but even within that background state, you will still run into a few solid highs out of shear dumb luck, but we haven't been able to do it. Can't remember tracking so many storms that had almost no good ageo flow tapping into a decent airmass....almost every single system this year is trying to overcome a putrid BL.

There's no empirical evidence March is cooling (or warming less fast) than the other winter months. In fact, November has been one of the colder months in the last decade during the cold season. January had no warming trend here for like 5-6 decades, so we're probably regressing to the mean a bit....aka, we were "due" for a stretch of putrid/warm Januarys. Tip and I have sometimes discussed that maybe there is a response on the extreme end of the spectrum for individual cold intrusions....more frequent snows in October and late April/early May than we've seen in the past, but they manifest themselves within the warmer climate background signal.

All the other models were trending toward euro until that Ukie run which is a model known to have large jumps. I mostly want to see the ensmebles today…goal posts really aren’t narrow enough for OP runs to be super useful yet.

The faster northern stream solutions are the super tucked ones....the slower ones (NAM/Euro/ICON) are the further east solutions.

Northern stream digging in too much and becoming dominant too quickly is what causes these super tucked solutions.

Too far west even for you on that midlevel track.

No, its prob good there...my first look was on the low res meteocentre maps...the higher res pivotal shows this cutting into SNE in the midlevels.

Dual low actually...there's a tucked low near LI prior to it consolidating eastward, so the Ukie is def west of 00z. ML center runs into SNE.

Ukie looks over ACK.

This is really compact as it bombs, so I don't think a Cape track is game over for the 128 crowd...the R/S line collapses pretty far southeast toward the low as it gets near vertically stacked. You really just want to keep it east of buzzards bay.

PRob lower levels....GGEM is often a bit torchy near the sfc, so my guess is the internal snow algorithm is a little stingy outside the meat of that band.

Further east than I thought based on RGEM...that might destroy the interior.

GFS did slink a little SE with the forcing vs 06z....but it's definitely still in the western camp with the Canadian twins.

It's wider in the "x direction" as Tip put it earlier. So it shoves the system east a bit despite being more amplified in the polar direction.

Foxborough jack on the icon (Berkshires/NW CT and Catskills have a bit more but a chunk of that is from tonight/tomorrow over there)