ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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In March 2001, I remember later that month you'd have south facing steep slopes completely bare while an open flat field had literally about 27-30 inches of pack and in the woods, it was still over 3 feet. One of the more egregious examples I've seen of late season snow pack differences just based on proximity/angle/exposure to the March sun.
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I'd bet Clinton at 340 feet averages less snow than your old place in ORH at 660 feet....though it's probably close. This winter has just seen an unusually steep latitude gradient on several storms.
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Kind of an interesting model battle....GFS suite has been more amped while Euro suite has been a little suppressed. Often see it the other way around in these systems.
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He’s in SE MA so for us over the interior, we don’t count.
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Yeah I’m not sure where the “spiking the football” narrative is coming from. The storm is still very much a possibility and I think the trends on ensembles have been generally positive the last day or two. That’s all you can really say at day 7. People are going to discuss threats. It doesn’t mean they pan out. If they always did, we wouldn’t dissect model guidance. We’d just take it at face value.
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That area has been crushed the last couple weeks.
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It’s possible but a needle threader. Could easily be crunched south or end up too warm like the 18z NAM.
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Yep. And I’d expect that if people do not want to worry about the storm until closer, take a break from this particular thread and come back in 3 days. For those who enjoy tracking the changes or watching guidance slowly converge on solutions, then that’s what the thread is for.
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EPS is kind of halfway between a “minnesota squeeze” (to steal Tip’s phrase) and a more conventional Miller B. Still a lot of be ironed out in the evolution
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No he just means they are overdone. Esp in lower elevations. It would be snow but prob more like 7 or 8 to 1 paste outside of the hills.
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OP runs mostly meaningless but the larger ensemble suite of guidance seems pretty decent today. Still a lot of time.
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My 3-4” of crapola forecast worked out well. I was telling most people around here to expect that.
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GEFS is a fairly classic Miller B sig. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we still have something.
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GGEM has a redeveloper Miller B type event and it looks like the Ukie is trying for something similar when the run cuts off at 144.
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Yeah GFS was too far south and cold, but not to the same degree the euro was too far north and warm. Really I’d say not until about 36-48 hours out did the euro start getting into a spot where I think it performed pretty well. I do think the GFS should get less weight inside of 48h because it hasn’t been that good in the shorter term. But in that 60-96 hour wheelhouse it has been pretty good most of this winter.
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I think the euro mostly lost that one. GFS was more right than wrong on the evolution of the storm. The problem for spots on the Line is they needed the GFS to be 100% right, not win a 70/30 compromise.
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Had about 3” at 3-330 last night…was compressed down to about 2 this morning. Back up to 3” now. Stuff is like spackel.
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Getting pretty easy stickage on the pavement here. This was about 15 min ago
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Ripping under this stuff. Sticking to all surfaces including pavement
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Pretty much all snow here now. Still a couple pellets mixed in but nice fatties.
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Mashed potatoes This stuff is starting to stick again after shoveling
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Fatties here now. Prob 70/30 snow/sleet mix.
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Yeah just deleted about 20 posts. People can b**ch about this winter in any number of other threads that host that type of discourse. We don’t need to turn this one into another.
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3ish? It’s prob actually lower now because of sleet compaction but we had about 3” at 3am while it was still ripping.
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Sleet snow mix picking back up here.
