ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Anyways, time to raid the edibles @RUNNAWAYICEBERG so I don’t convince myself to stay up for the euro. Gotta save that for tomorrow night if we are still tracking higher potential.
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One thing most guidance had tonight regardless of whether they trended north or south was a better thump on the front. A little extra vorticity getting pushed out east of the main ULL back in the Midwest.
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Nice move on the Ukie toward GFS. Not all the way but a good step.
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Funny thing was RGEM was quite a bit colder than 12z. Usually GGEM follows the little cousin’s trend.
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I was being hyperbolic but the end result was very similar outside of an extremely narrow zone. It’s basically well inside the margin of error on a 54-60 hour prog. Regardless, it doesn’t matter. Many runs to go.
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Yeah agreed.
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I always love the systems where we sweat like 8 mile shifts.
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Yeah and I don’t trust it to make that track so I want to see this a little further south off to the west as we get closer to feel good about it.
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Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County.
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Yeah it may have ended up north of 18z by Saturday, but the way it gets there is important. There was a stronger vort lobe sticking east so we got a really good thump…and the CCB was very strong again this run.
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Das boot…drink up
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00z Reggie is a crush job N of pike.
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3k hammered E MA for like 3 hours with 2” per hour…lol.
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This actually may end up a little south of 18z. But it’s still pretty amped overall compared to other guidance
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NAM looks really zonked again. So it won’t be that model caving at 00z
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That was honestly one of the most ridiculous latitude gradients we’ve seen in seasonal snowfall. We were lucky we got to experience that one on the forums back in the day. Cant remember a winter that was more active than that one. I feel like MEkster and I were collaborating on forecasts nearly non-stop (back when I was forecasting full-time).
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00z feels like a pretty big run…we got the bump warmer at 12z after 06z was cooling but then came back a little cooler at 18z on most runs.
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Yeah that’s really blatant when you put the departures right next to BOS like that. ORH is almost exactly 2 warmer each month.
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Yes. I’d be shocked if we don’t have some distinct moves by one camp by tomorrow morning. My guess is we’ll see some sort of compromise but the magnitude of that comprise matters a lot. If GFS wins 70/30, then you’re gonna get smoked, but if it loses 70/30, it’s pretty pedestrian.
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The general consensus is around 400-500m. It can depend on rates though too and also what the peak temperature in that layer is. A 500m layer of 0.5C temps might not be enough but if the temp is getting to 1.5C in that layer, then it would be enough. That’s a pretty thin layer there but its def greater than 500m so it would be a sleet sounding.
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The track of the ULL in the Midwest is the real key. On the GFS it keeps it south of the southern MI border into western OH. On runs like the NAM, it’s tracking into the thumb of MI. That’s a pretty big difference of 100+ miles.
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That GFS CCB sig is crazy. It looks even better this run than 12z. I’m not buying into that yet but the persistence of that model has to be acknowledged. Esp since it’s one of the better models. We did see 18z reggie make a big nod toward it even if not quite all the way there. But the other guidance makes it hard to really buy into the idea.
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I’ve already told everyone to expect a repeat of Mar ‘56.
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There was also about a 10-12 foot storm surge in the FL Panhandle on the east side of that low. That’s almost unheard of for a non tropical cyclone.
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Still on the colder side of guidance. Never really changes over north of CT/MA border.
