ORH_wxman

33F and light snow...trying to pick back up now though. Gonna need rates like we had in mid-morning to overcome the peak sun angle and sfc temps.

Yes....night time event....Mar 21-22, 2013. Someone in the heart of that norlun got like 12" and it all fell in about 5 hours.

Most our IVTs are pretty mundane 1-3" type deals....we occasionally get a good one, though they've been kind of sparse in recent years after we got a decent number of them in the 2007-2014 period (2/22/07, 12/20/07, 12/20/08, 2/24/13, 1/18/14 all come to mind)

GGEM is pretty similar to GFS....might be a smidge colder...really doesn't get the pellets north of the pike. But it does the same exact larger scale behavior of shunting this almost due east.

Picked up almost an additional inch since those better echoes hit a bit over an hour ago....but there is definitely all sorts of dependencies....pavement just getting slushy accum and even the shoveled area of the deck with it's darker wood only picked up about half an inch additional. Im sure elevation matters too...at bottom of hill it prob didn't stick quite as easily. Intensity coming down now as the best echoes slowly sink ESE. We'll see if they can re-blossom here in the next couple hours.

Scooter streak north of CAR....NAO trying to push that south a bit.

Yeah it does the Tip crunch eastward....there is no doubt the confluence is stornger than it was a couple days ago but it's battling the further west shortwave....so it comes up west and then hits the brick wall and goes east....but where that happens matters a lot for us in terms of sensible wx.

Yeah I'm waiting until the later guidance comes out to start thinking this one is cooked as a major event here....but we definitely don't want that shortwave ripping up that far west....even though it will move east eventually with the block, our margin at this latitude is pretty narrow as it is so even a slight latitude gain on it's eastward shunt is no good here. Prob totally fine for NNE. But we'll see what he globals say....they are certainly going to be more skillful at this range than the nested mesos.

The trend so far on 12z for the JV models (NAM/RGEM/ICON) is to wrap the main shortwave up so far west, that it doesn't really help that the confluence is coming in stronger.....we don't get the good WCB precip burst.

NAM has really strong confluence, but the main shortwave is so far west we wouldn't get the nice WCB thump....that would be out in the Great Lakes.

Yeah we need solid rates. Which I have right now. Hopefully it maintains. Best stuff is actually supposed to be later. Models had only light stuff right now but they are having some trouble handling trust N stream interaction I think.

If it’s gonna snow like this, we’ll accumulate fine today. Already starting to get stickage on pavement again.

Massive fatties falling here. Giant quarters.

CF pushed through here. Went from 27 to 32 in about 30 min.

That area just along and south of pike there got smoked last night. I wish it had translated a few more miles east to here.

Can’t trust the euro these days.

Eyeballing about 3 too but haven’t measured yet. Hoping to crack 6 later.

A lot of guidance has a lull for a couple hours this morning before stuff blossoms again…we’ll have to see how that plays out over the next few hours.

Pounding in this little enhanced area right now

Euro went from the most suppressed model about 4-5 runs ago to the most amped. Lol. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow given all of the other guidance trended south at 00z.

Radar looks pretty solid

The problem with snow maps is if they are 10 to 1, they will be too high in marginal areas…and that’s not because the model was wrong, it’s because people forecasted using 10 to 1. That’s one reason I like the QPF maps better. Easier to verify the model performance. But in your area, it’s prob fairly safe to use 10 to 1 since most of your snow is falling early with a cold column.

It’s going to be marginal after early morning tomorrow along the coast. Onshore flow will creep temps up above freezing. If rates are decent, it matter a ton, but in lighter snow it could be the type that doesn’t really accumulate.

18z euro ramped up again a bit. Prob warning snows for everyone more than 10 miles away from coast.

All the 18z runs so far have strengthened the confluence in Quebec. Granted, rgem and NAM are in clown range for them but same trend as GFS and ICON.