baltosquid

Slow and steady trend on the TPV. And setting up nicely to force the low into the 50/50 spot.

Jeez were nearly a week out with a storm in between and you’d think snow miser just came through and told us he has cancer and left his estate to heat miser. We’ll see what happens but at this point I won’t look a positive trend in the mouth

I'm personally starting to let that threat go. The window where it looked like we were moving towards a workable solution included the TPV hanging back longer in the Pac NW while a weaker lobe popped out and went on its own, plus there was a wave sliding off the coast as the storm approached to fist fight the ridging ahead of the event. None of the models show that now (edit: Operational models, that look is not entirely gone from ensembles), either bringing back strong ridging in front of the event or making the TPV come forward and phase.

So far GEFS also seems to want to show that North/South stacking of vorts.

GFS just too buddy-buddy with the energy pieces here compared to GEM, far stronger, and kicks out the leading shortwave across the lakes/Canada too quick.

GFS jumped big towards the TPV getting involved with the 13th wave so it cuts. Need more separation if it's going to work - had been trending that way but 18z and 00z have reversed it.

It’s only the ICON, but it trended towards popping out a vort into the plains ahead of the energy for the 13th. Looks very similar to the GFS progression, less heights immediately in front of the big western blob of energy. Can’t say it is in the transfer camp until the longer 00z run verifies but that leaves only the UKMET being stingy with that vort, keeping it further north.

Hard pressed to even nitpick that…

Dream scenario: lobe continues to trend SW, slips under a growing block, gives us a taste of flakes/appetizer before we set up under the big chill behind it.

Look at the surface temp trend next Sat, 12z. On EPS. The Friday/Saturday storm is bringing in the chill behind it… just needs to reach us.

Euro trended south for next weekend as well.

In that reading, could next Friday’s wave, if it shoots off the coast further south, open the door for that slip to happen?

Danger, anecdotal blend of models ahead: Am I crazy to think that blending the GEM and GFS look on next Friday/Sat might work out for us? edit: never mind, was looking at a 00z GEM panel. 12z is closer to 12z GFS.

To expand on next Fri/Sat, GFS trend has been pretty evident towards colder on lead-in. Over last 3 runs, freezing line has gone from being horizontal right through central PA, to reaching well into the WV apps but certainly not a strong, deep cold or anything yet. Baltimore went from 45 to 41. Energy for the storm is getting more separation from the deep pac NW vort. Little vort pops out from the lakes earlier and flattens the ridging over us some. More ridging over central Canada overtop the storm rather than all out front.

Trend for Friday/Saturday on GFS getting closer to a thump but would require a lot of temperature improvement and further moves SE

I’m waiting for the big post on how really the AO and NAO are king for snow, so we can just ignore the pac punts.

If we’re dropping complaints, I’ll say that sometimes it grates to hear over and over again “not a typical storm for us, we don’t usually score this way” in the wake of a bad run… we have been on a historic streak of misses, and that includes missing low prob hit after low prob hit. I know no one is omitting the larger context on purpose; the ones who know what’s a good look or not are also the sort that probably are good at keeping focus on one storm. But it does feel like it’s speaking to a different angst (getting upset over missing one bad opportunity) than the actual angst (getting upset over having mostly bad opportunities for years and also missing all of them). Like, would I be wrong to say it’s odd (need not say the double C words) that most/more storm opportunities are razor’s edge now, atypical, or just in general may require a fluke to get through, and we simultaneously get Lucy’d on all of them (particularly the metros)? I feel like a part of building a climate year is occasionally hitting a storm you’d expect not to hit individually. It leaves a couple questions. First is the obvious “can it snow” and I am in the yes camp… but next is “can we do slam dunks?” And “can we do flukes?” To the former, we don’t seem to be getting those opportunities to test that. To the latter, sure as hell not recently. If we can’t do what we’d view as a fluke anymore then is it time to move the goalposts on what a fluke is? Are slam dunks and their supporting patterns actually just flukes now? It’s probably not that bad but it feels that way from Baltimore…

A nice silver lining, just have to hope there's still room for the ensembles to be the leader here rather than the OP. Relatively close now...

I95 seems no longer IN the goalposts but rather is itself one of the posts… needle thin path to a mostly snow event may remain in the realm of reason. But if the incoming euro is bad and the runs through 00z don’t start a trend back to the good, might be exiting that realm of reason. Might be taking down the tree after all…

DC around a foot and the usual NW burbs all the way up through NE edging out a grass coverer or nothing at all makes me skeptical on its face, ignoring specifics lol.

On the back end in Baltimore. Could be really, really nice along I-95 as the temp drops... wet bombs up front, clean flakes coming in on the back, fingers crossed!

Looking like it might be less charged NW than prior runs but perhaps a bit more favorable to a wider area...

Low is almost moving through Tallahassee by 120, much quicker!

GFS continues to trend towards a later tilt, seems like it's feeling more of the energy behind it. Easily positive through 102.

FWIW the ICON is cooking very well for the 7th. But interesting to see it jump to being so much more amped relative to 00z - was previously very suppressed.