baltosquid

Massive drop in confidence for this timeframe on the ensemble... I'm a little worried that could presage a shift in thinking on the GEFS that has it cave to the OP in coming runs, but I know that's not necessarily the case and inter run changes in certainty shouldn't be anything to get hung up on. Just weird to suddenly get so much more spread.

Low position on the GFS is still riding the absolute most NW portion of the GEFS envelope.

ICON looks slower and much further from creating cutoff low through 108 than it did at 12z. Just much weaker overall. 10mb higher MSLP. Probably closer to some of the earlier southern solutions but since it is slower, increased interaction with the trailing northern piece could counteract some of that and bring it north. Probably a much more moderate event if not a total miss to our south.

Spoke too soon, rug pull in the end with a sharp pull nw at the last minute. Not as crazy as the GFS but probably ends up with lots of ptype concerns for the beltway. Probably real nice west of the fall line though. Don’t have ptype maps yet to see clearer however.

GEM has it tilting neutral a bit late but it looks pretty damn good so far on h5/vort through 126

Operational GFS is definitely riding the NW edge of the ensemble envelope of solutions. If you’re optimistic that means plenty of room to adjust to less of a cutting solution, if you’re pessimistic that means the op is leading the trend.

Gonna be sweating surface temps with that track even with cold leading in.

Much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia destroyed, CAPE is in heaven and the northern crew is apoplectic. Definitely gonna happen, right? Edited with more complete snow map.

If one of the models spits out a harsher cutoff at some point today, I think the board will go (more) insane.

We’ve got decent ensemble support from the euro on the 24h snow charts. By my count, 31 members have some snow for us, with an average of 2 inches. Not bad at this stage.

That squall line is a beauty, isn't it? Only a model, but what a fantastic structure. Btw, 3km coming in looks maybe lower pressure. But I know the 3km can sometimes end up over doing that.

That's certainly an impressive trend on the HRRR but I'd really like to see our prodigal son, the NAM, act the same way in the next hour. Here's the vapor status. Looks neutral or negative to me but my eyes are not those of experts.

Optimistically, a NW shift/precip improvement like that on the 3k this close to kickoff is a good sign for those abiding by the old last minute NW tick logic. Pessimistically, it could be seen as just bouncing between the goalposts of 06z and 12z and zeroing in. Really interested in what the RGEM has to say, if another meso starts doubting the GFS/euro I will be more worried.

3km looks better, more NW, healthier shield. Brutal cutoff line north of 95.

12km NAM coming through now. Still only out to 14 hours for me. h5 early on maybe looks marginally better but doesn't look like a huge adjustment as of yet. Axis of the shield looks a little flatter though which could contribute to a harsher cutoff line. We shall see in the rest of the run and the 3km.

It could be a nightmare, that's for sure. No one's really thinking about snow in Canton it seems due to the temps today. Target still had shovels galore. And so, I parked my car near the top of an uphill one-way. Hopefully everyone having trouble driving up just slides back down harmlessly... condolences to the cars at the bottom.

I think I get a handful of images to share per year or something as a goody two shoes with a subscription? One can't hurt... anyway I would echo Chill's comments, the jack looks suspicious between DC and Baltimore, but that's a lot of pink regardless.

Kuchera ratios from the Euro destroy I95... 20 inch jackpot between DC and Baltimore, 12-15 for each city.

Euro coming through now... h5 looking good. Cutoff is stronger. Tilt is more negative through 18.

Forecasters are in a tough spot. If it verifies, it will be easy in hindsight to say "The trend was clearly visible and the GFS had it all along, and the NAM proved to have struggles with it. They should have given everyone a couple more inches on the forecast and moved the warnings north!" But back to the present, got to remember that the GFS is still juicing this more than any other model. So far, that admittedly looks like a decent bet, and it has got all the other models beginning to bend the knee. But it could be wrong in its own way too, and blending still rules, so no one is itching to jump out ahead of the trend. If the trend doesn't continue and follow that leap of faith to catch you, suddenly you're falling.

Another cool way to watch the trend... look at the last few HRRR runs. Check out the cold pressing more and more and the distance between the yellows and the freezing line shrinking in the south.

Mesmerizing to watch this trend. Just give it a bit more, and juice that shield....

One more decent NW jump away from a true I95 transit nightmare…

Euro looking more negative tilt through 24…

The GFS is awfully close to getting the northern and southern energy married together over us for Wed/Thu on the 00z run. Too bad it's so dry/meh cold, a storm like that sliding off the coast where the GFS has it would be tantalizing (especially for short pump ) with a few changes.