baltosquid

Yeah I looked at the run at h5 only first and was very surprised that it turned out the way it did by the end of it at the surface. I think another trend like that out west and things would change noticeably. Not a run to run change that is good for phasing imo so if it does become a trend this could go back south

I mean it isn’t crazy to bet against a monster phase, right? Especially with how this winter has gone so far. But we shall see…

I don’t know how ready the RRFS A is for prime time but it would be rough I think. Would probably already be mixing by sunrise Sunday.

Just so you know the pivotal beta gifs are broken. The old display works better for them. I don’t see 18z in that gif

Looking up at Canada at hr66 or so on the ICON and the NS just is way different than 12z. Have to see if that energy presentation is real at all.

ICON also puts a 1042 in VT/NH. Was 1040 north of the border at 12z (this is at hr90)

Yeah, at 42 the ICON definitely has tightened up the NS kink and kept it further east. It also has more confluence over the central CONUS. Can’t feel too good though until we see it de-amp verbatim though, not sure how the interaction will go even with some separation

Too early to diagnose much but the ICON at 30 is isolating the Baja low a bit more than 12z and MIGHT be tightening up that NS energy that had been jutting west; next few frames should tell.

I like the separation so far on the NAM, hr39. Confluence is better too. I’m choosing to put this here because it’s the NAM and the trend today has been early calls of better separation keep going amped… maybe the weather gods won’t see me in the JV thread

Just to put it out there, the 18z HRRR is riding on the “slow Baja low” side of the guidance envelope

I prefer Randy’s play by play to Uccellini’s

MSLP looks more coastal, less WV on EPS Edit: ditto for AI EPS

Looks like UK still wants to amp, looked pretty unambiguously better at hr84 but the commonwealth models just want to zoom this thing right into the OHV no matter what. It is definitely better than 00z though. Hopefully both this and the CMC are just amp happy and prove to be in their own little world. Struggle to believe a 1006 low climbing from the MS valley to WV/OH into this high. Edit: just to clarify it was an overall improvement and not a small one, but it feels like the ceiling is still being kept low by this “drive the primary into the arctic high to OH” tendency on the CMC and UKMET

Okay look I might not know enough to call bullshit, but I am gonna. Is the CMC really going to have a stronger high, with a low starting further south, a tick weaker (1006 vs 1005 at hr96) that just launches itself head first into said high, with no inclination to pop a coastal whatsoever??

You mean more separation?

GFS disseminating quickly today thank goodness. I like it at hr30 but I won’t put my foot in my mouth when I’m sure proper pbp is ready to go

ICON-EPS MSLP looks great. One signature on the TN/NC border, another on the FL panhandle, and then one right off Hatteras. At hr102

Frankly I think the ICON was close to being way better, am I crazy? It left a lot of energy behind from the Baja piece but still amped more than prior runs. I’m sure it’s possible to get that but with this Arctic front and a messier phase as depicted I think the progression could end up better. I guess I’m just wishcasting

At 78 compared to 06z, looks like we have better confluence out front. Phase looks maybe a tad more disjointed, Baja low not getting pulled up in front of the NS protrusion to the NW as much? Overall not a huge change but not gonna get amped to death past 84 I think…

FWIW FV3 run seems to hang the Baja low back a tad thru hr30, bit more separation from the NS… yes this is a very premature read!

I do think with the past weekend small event the AIs (both of them) tended to overdo the NW trend a bit before backing off to a middle ground. So if that is something they repeat, would be excellent. Obviously on a much different scale…

Also RGEM definitely slower with the Baja piece. Way too much heartburn over 06z. It was a much more skeptical set of runs concerning a phase. Also watch the flow out front… it seems like it wants to angle down, more northwesterly than southwesterly across guidance. That kind of suppressive look will also be super helpful to keep this thing pinned.

Looked like it would not phase so aggressively at that point though

I mean, verbatim that is a move south after last night. The GFS also holds serve. UKMET is slower with the Baja low and reduces the NS’s reach down towards it at the end of its run and seems like it would not repeat the amped madness from last night. I want to see the mixing line move further south on some guidance of course, but this was a step in the right direction.

Yup, like I was saying earlier, still think it's more likely the NS gets trashy somewhere along the line and can't cleanly phase... but we do know how to lose here. So we'll see.