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baltosquid

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Everything posted by baltosquid

  1. baltosquid
    Shhhhhhhh!
  2. baltosquid
    Yeah if we can coalesce around a euro solution today and tomorrow that puts us in a great spot if the lack of blocking helps us get a west trend in the home stretch. Not gonna get the eye popping stuff I would think but there’s room to improve if we don’t lose ground today.
  3. baltosquid
    Yeah the vort map looked a smidge better at 84 but after that it pretty much ended up at the same location, just a bit deeper and I guess the surface just ended up getting underway too too far east.
  4. baltosquid
    Not gonna stay awake long enough to see how it ends up but the GEFS seems to be slightly improved through 84. Probably doesn't make up all the ground it lost, though.
  5. baltosquid
    I hope so. I wonder what the conditions were that led to the change in track. I mean, first order analysis one would think a storm like we're tracking in an environment without blocking would have plenty of room to shift west but so much of the track is based on some crazy interactions happening way out west that we could just as likely jump further east if that mess doesn't break our way. Fingers crossed we can make another gif like that one for this weekend should it come to pass.
  6. baltosquid
    The trailing vort placement is better but it still seems like a lot less interaction with the northern energy than we had at 12z. Question: That strong vortex up by the Hudson Bay in the 60-70 hour range keeps taking longer and longer to move out over the last handful of runs on the GFS. Is that vortex being too close by making it harder for the northern piece to come down far enough to interact with the vort in the four corners?
  7. baltosquid
    We need some ops showing fish storms at this stage, if they all saw snow for us 4-5 days out they’d surely be too early to all get it right!
  8. baltosquid
    Looking at individual members, way more that appear to be down with the tuck on GEFS than at 6z. Only have TT right now though, a different plot would be nice to really tell.
  9. baltosquid
    Average low position at 114 on GEFS is a bit closer to OBX. Most seem to be running on the inside of that but not too big of a majority. Still a good chunk well out to sea.
  10. baltosquid
    Think GEFS looks better than the GFS on h5 through 96. Less elongated, more NE than ENE flow in front, better tilt. But as has been mentioned many times, different, older physics at play.
  11. baltosquid
    Just observing! Got a friend up there who loves a good snow day so I’d like to be able to give him good news if it stays that way. And I’m hoping that jackpot keeps trending to us. Though verbatim I ride near the mix line so I’m quite happy with that implication…
  12. baltosquid
    Wow, looks great for us but NYC gets buried.
  13. baltosquid
    GEFS continuing some earlier trends so far. Trough axis continues to get steeper over the four corners.
  14. baltosquid
    Yeah the NAM at 84 is quite encouraging. Nice decrease in elongation, looks like better cold leading in too. But still the NAM at 84.
  15. baltosquid
    I’m primarily an Eagles fan but ever since studying up in Rochester and making some great friendships with Bills fans, they’ve been the only team that can come close to my level of support for Philly. Heart’s broken for Josh Allen and my friends, just such a disappointment. Gotta take solace in the fact that Allen is an absolute miracle worker with ice in his veins, I guess.
  16. baltosquid
    I’d certainly take some Sunday night mood flakes before going back to work, as long as no models spits out totals that get my hopes too high before something more reasonable happens.
  17. baltosquid
    Good point, I’ve not been around long enough to be fully familiar with the dynamics here but it’s obvious to me that Chill’s too chill for us to tolerate chilling comments towards them
  18. baltosquid
    Ignore campaigns don’t work because we’re all to some extent craving that sweet sweet no-snow depression, and the downer/contrarian posters are the best providers
  19. baltosquid
    Spoiler: we did not and will not reach the best case here in Canton. Still raining. Feels like any other anafrontal system… pretty embarrassing failure by the American models, mesos, global and ensemble alike. I will say the FV3 hi-res was toying with a steeper angle to the front and thus little to nothing for a bit but ultimately it gave up on that and went back to seeing snow. Oh well, I guess I’ll just try to be mindful of the icing threat once things finally cool down. Congrats to those who managed to scrape out something from this.
  20. baltosquid
    From the wonderful HREF ensemble site, mean and max: It feels like this particular product is not usually so blanket acceptable in its output for setups like this, so I feel pretty optimistic we can get to the 2 inch mark (Edit: in the metros is my context here). And I'll be curious to see if any jackpotting happens around the green area highlighted by the max map.
  21. baltosquid
    The 12z HRRR looks like a bit of a step back so far. But we're still well out of the generally intended use range lol. Probably going to jump back and forth for a bit. This evening's runs when we finally get the whole event in the 18 hours will be fun for weenie trend watching.
  22. baltosquid
    Someone's gonna find themselves under a short, small streak of heavy snow towards the end of the event when the column is colder and the ratios are better, and they will be the one who gets out with the 3+ inches imo. For those of us who only get the heavier stuff near the changeover, it'll be a somewhat sloppy inch or so and then a light powdery layer on top. At least that's how I think it will go down.
  23. baltosquid
    Buy some calls/puts on natural gas?
  24. baltosquid
    Lol weenie dream towards the end of the Canadian run.
  25. baltosquid
    Takes "Diurnal initialization sensitivity", puts in pocket for future coping.
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