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baltosquid

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Everything posted by baltosquid

  1. baltosquid
    NAM 3km has a healthier precip shield for wave 2.
  2. baltosquid
    I mean, one more run that loses qpf or goes south and I’m lucky to get by with 2 inches. And that won’t be on the ground all at once with the 2 part, drawn out nature of things. There’s always next storm, yeah, but there’s also always the next way to miss out on it. Maybe there’s also the next way to beat expectations, but hasn’t happened yet this year. Baltimore has found almost every way to miss forecasts. Frustrating.
  3. baltosquid
    Looks very similar to the op on qpf. Best outside the mountains is 0.5 to 0.6 qpf. Less narrow with the best precip but kinda expected from an ensemble.
  4. baltosquid
    CMC also looks weaker on the second wave. Maybe a bit south.
  5. baltosquid
    ICON is really weird. Way north on the first wave (mixes into Baltimore), way south on the second.
  6. baltosquid
    Rates are much worse north of DC, still favors the southern areas. But an improvement overall. edit: actually it’s a bit worse in my area and NE. There’s a NW-SE fringe. Went from 5 to more like 4 inches of snow per RGEM.
  7. baltosquid
    Would have liked to see a few more frames of the 3km, definitely a big north bump on wave 2, a little more so than the 12km.
  8. baltosquid
    NAM 12k is a ways north and stronger with the second wave compared to the last run. Still fringes Baltimore and northward but getting closer.
  9. baltosquid
    Definitely looking like a NAM’ing so far. QPF upped by a couple tenths in the first wave, also brought north a bit.
  10. baltosquid
    Precip looks healthier on the NAM through 39.
  11. baltosquid
    The issue isn’t that people won’t accept a nice snow of 3 inches, it’s the psychology of that 3 inches always coming from a failed 6 inch storm rather than a trace-1 inch storm that surprised. Obviously that 6 inch storm never existed and neither did that trace storm, it was 3 inches all along. But our window into the future includes visions of those trace and 6 inch storms. Not gonna jump on the misery wagon myself, just trying to explain the frustration. Misery -> panic room
  12. baltosquid
    Euro close to something at 114... directly on the heels of this week's event. Edit: Digital snow confirmed at 120, Saturday evening.
  13. baltosquid
    Seems wetter DC south, bit dryer to the north. Overall pretty similar but the gradient between south/north seems a bit stronger in the former's favor. Still no big north adjustments as we close in from the euro.
  14. baltosquid
    UKMET pretty similar to 12z honestly, 4-6 around the cities (higher end of that by DC), 6-8 in the mountains NW of DC, 2-4 outside of those areas. Seems like a pretty reasonable, less weenie version of what the other models showed.
  15. baltosquid
    UKMET coming in now. We're 3 for 3 so far tonight on globals with the GFS, CMC and ICON all putting down half an inch QPF for most of the subforum with enough cold for good ratios of snow. Can we go 4 for 4, and even 5 for 5 with the Euro tonight? Perhaps of more interest at this stage, how do the mesos look tomorrow? Either way hard not to feel good where we are right now.
  16. baltosquid
    CMC is onboard with the euro progression of the second wave. Really good run for a lot of the forum. Two waves are closer together and the second is much stronger.
  17. baltosquid
    RGEM looks a bit south with the first wave compared to 18z, best precip at DC latitude.
  18. baltosquid
    FWIW, the 3km is further north than the 12km.
  19. baltosquid
    True, probably smart of them to give it some time to figure out totals for that while the models bicker about whether that second bit is south or north.
  20. baltosquid
    Someone with actual weather expertise can probably explain this better than I can, but I believe this giant 500mb feature is the culprit. Our storm rounds that through the Great Lakes, while in the previous run, it was positioned a bit further south and east, so when the storm came round, it was in a better spot for us (still was only an ice storm though).
  21. baltosquid
    Seems like a good forecast based on climo for something like this, even if there is some potential for better totals for DC and south.
  22. baltosquid
    That's another trend south with the fringe for the GFS, so while it may not be a good run for those SE of I95, maybe the next one will be? Edit: Was mistaken, thinking about the 06z.
  23. baltosquid
    GFS coming in drier, a tad south perhaps.
  24. baltosquid
    Jackpot of 10 seems pretty reasonable if you get something like the euro. Gut says somewhere in the latitudes between DC and Baltimore gets it.
  25. baltosquid
    ICON really loses a lot of the precip from the previous run. Once you get north of DC, you go from 0.5, to 0.4, to 0.3 in Baltimore, and less and less as you keep going. Still a good run to have at this stage if you expect a north shift and aren't looking too deeply at rates quite yet. But dryness is still my biggest worry.
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