baltosquid
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Everything posted by baltosquid
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Yup, like I was saying earlier, still think it's more likely the NS gets trashy somewhere along the line and can't cleanly phase... but we do know how to lose here. So we'll see.
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The bad thing is, believe it or not, is also we got time. But the storms that performed well for the southern part of the subforum this winter seemed to always flash a north trend before ultimately settling in south again. At least that's what I'll take with me to bed...
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Based on 700mb, Euro AI would mix south and east of a line drawn from around ocean city to south central VA after some time. But I think there should be a really good opening act as depicted, regardless.
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Actually that stronger low MSLP signature in WV is annoying on the Euro AI. Edit: I don't think this is cause for panic at this point, just want to see this stay in TN.
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Crazy WAA to start, and then it's gonna mix it looks like.
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At this stage I still feel like it's more likely some NS trash is introduced (or a helpful piece is lost) that prevents a CMC phase, than we actually get the CMC phase. This has not been a NS that plays nice and phases eagerly this winter.
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I would agree that, anecdotally, the CMC seems like the model that flirts with a very different look most often while getting close to game time. For as much as we give the GFS shit, it seems to go off on its own tangent a little further out. CMC also seems to really like mixed precip.
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Canadian ensembles will be intriguing. They tend to take a while to come out so I won't see them until tomorrow but would be nice to see them imply a track south of the op.
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Yeah CMC is too much of a good thing, honestly.
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CMC improving the phase for sure
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Verbatim, the radar panels you'd get out of that at game time would become profile pics all over this forum.
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Bellyaching was def premature (so far), Baja has mostly caught up lol
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Insane that on both the 18z GEFS and the 12z EPS, Baltimore verbatim does not see a moment above freezing from Friday evening all the way to February 2-3. I'm sure to older members of the board a week to week and a half of freezing temps isn't all that crazy compared to ye olde days. But definitely a departure from today's norm. If it pans out, I hope there's at least some photo worthy ice in the harbor.
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Bz going so far north is just crazy. May and October 2024 and November 2025 would have been baby shows compared to this, but south Bz. Getting into real power infrastructure threat territory, too. Massive what-if.
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Rotation might be happening right now, but no telling how long it will take or how strong it ends up on the other side of it. Think we could still manage a nice show if it doesn’t fizzle out before the rotation completes. But will be later on tonight that we find out regardless.
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If it doesn’t flip, I’d say this definitely would be a classic mid Atlantic rug pull, space edition
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It will be a couple hours for it to flip south if it is gonna try to recover. Probably won’t be some ridiculous show like it could have been if the orientation was south -60 instead of north, but 20 or so south in an agitated magnetic field could still give us a show of some kind I hope
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We seem to be encountering the flux rope now. It is starting very north. Insanely north. So that is not good. Would probably quickly turn off the light show. But it could rotate to south, and if it is as hugely south as it is north right now in such a hypothetical, could be crazy. Just don’t know yet.
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Don’t think we need to be worried about earliness yet. We’re only a couple hours away from it being dark enough to maybe catch some sightings and I don’t think we’re done with the initial shock of this CME. If the CME is all shock and not much behind it yeah could miss out, but it looked like a good one.
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Looks like early nighttime will be the best window for viewing in terms of cloud cover, then we could get blocked at the mid level between ~10 and midnight or so. The CME is impacting now so I’m hoping to be able to catch stuff after sundown if it isn’t oriented badly for big effects. Right now it appears we could get that coveted south Bz but not sure if that will stick in the end or there’s a big parcel of northiness to come that could dampen things.
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Tempted to say you can lock this one in because I am traveling to New Orleans Saturday morning and coming back Monday. With my luck not only will we get a KU while I am gone, but we’ll be stranded at the airport trying to get home. Nervous for my dog too if it’s bad, even trusting the sitter…
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Got a dusting at lake Anna. Looks like I might catch a little extra snow shower based on the radar before it’s all done.
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Been snowing quite nicely for a bit now at lake Anna. Struggling to stick though. I think if it can keep up for another hour or 2, can get that coating.
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Light intermittent snow starting at lake Anna. Thought it would mix initially so that’s a nice surprise. Might get a coating if lucky.
