baltosquid

FV3 still believes in some snow before a changeover, lol.

RRFS covering itself in glory before it is even used in forecasts

I think the problem is the storm itself is mainly just slower so the high isn’t as ideally placed by the time it arrives. You can see the progression of the storm slowing down run to run on the GEFS member MSLP graphic

GEFS was worse, basically back to 06z for it. Only a tiny bit of snow in far NE MD.

Actually unsure of the GEFS, high may be moving out of the way too early. Probably gonna be close to the same

GEFS should be a bit better I think, stronger high

End result is pretty similar. Just won't budge south since 06z though. ENS will be intriguing.

EPS mean snow depth (I don’t have a sub to look at actual quantity on pivotal) moved SW some

Euro AI was another nudge SW, nothing too dramatic though.

Also might have missed mention of it but the Ukie also moved south, still just some light mixy stuff for northern parts of the subforum though.

Yeah op was a disappointment but also given how quickly the presentation of this event is changing, really shouldn’t get discouraged with the ensembles still trending south. We’ll probably windshield wiper along the way even if it does pan out for us.

GEFS moved south, pretty noticeably.

Of course. I’m not speaking literally, though I understand it’s careless agency-assigning or anthropomorphizing towards the models to speak like that, and yeah I probably shouldn’t.

FWIW (little) the NAM and RGEM continue the trends of higher heights to our west and lower ones in the east at range. Same way the GFS has been trending. ICON captures the event and was only just a tick south though (in terms of wintry precip for us)

Yeah I mean at least there is a pretty simple path to understanding the sudden change. Fingers crossed we’ll be talking about how the GFS proved everyone wrong for a foot of snow by week’s end…

Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope…

Yeah that is the period to watch until a pattern shift. Definitely a lot of rumbling about some sort of wave rolling through. But the blocking situation or whether we get a good 50/50 or not is just super far from getting resolved.

Some light front end stuff has been shown for the storm that’ll roll through then. Accumulations doubtful.

Also the AIGFS had a similar solution. It actually kept the storm under us and there’s a nice coastal but base state is still too warm, probably would be a mixy messy thing.

Yeah strikingly similar to yesterday’s 06z but we just don’t have the Atlantic side of things as buttoned up as we did on that run. High was 10-15 hPa weaker. Need to get a good traffic jam going, and then the general shortwave progression (strong sw, perhaps big cutoff rolling through the southwest and central US) would have ended much better this time.

I didn’t know the ENSO thread had weather influencing capabilities

GOOFUS may be flirting with an entry for the digital snow thread for new year’s lol

Potential dusting/snow tv on the 23rd on the GFS. That window hasn't really lived up to my interest in it, as the heights to our west just became too hostile for something to really develop even though we still managed to scrape some cold out of the situation. But flakes would be nice.

The GEFS really wants a storm over the central CONUS, destination unknown! Extremely evident even on just 6hr QPF at over 200 hours. So the storm is there, it just does not know where to go with it once it gets spun up!!

I still am intrigued by the 22-23 period even though the GFS op lost the little event it had at 12z. This feature leading in sliding off NE is getting better for such an event, improving the mid level flow over us for something sneaky: Temps by the 23rd are getting better as well: Precip for 22nd into the 23rd, not as strong of a trend but at the very least the GEFS is not screaming "dry." The ingredients aren't just on the GEFS but I am too lazy to get GIFs for all of them given pivotal's beta GIF creator is borked so I can't do off hour stuff for the euro and... it's a lot of work to invest in when it probably isn't gonna happen! For now I think I just want to see things trend colder for Sat/Sun. Easy to pick out the mid level trends for that, and it's the first requirement to meet for this to at all be possible.