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baltosquid

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Everything posted by baltosquid

  1. baltosquid
    Seems like it's got thermal issues, gets pretty much everyone in MD not in the Appalachians into rain for a long period of time.
  2. baltosquid
    Just how I like it. Very interesting how the Canadian models have been gung ho about this all of a sudden; wish it were easy to tell why they went this direction the past few runs under the hood. Not gonna hug it because it's literally too perfect, but I hope it has the better of the NAM this time around and we can reach those foot totals. But I'll take 6 if that's all we get. REally interested in where the euro puts the CCB; it's been much more optimistic than the NAM but not as much as the RGEM/GGEM.
  3. baltosquid
    Wouldn't it be hilarious if the bay jackpots... but we'd still be doing quite well here regardless.
  4. baltosquid
    No need for a super in depth response since that would be best left to its own thread, but do people more in the know think the huge issues with GFS thermals are to some extent brough about by certain overcorrections from its experimental days when the FV3 was cranking out nonsensical cold solutions storm after storm?
  5. baltosquid
    FWIW, the densest cluster of lows in the EPS members seems to be the ones that don't escape, but my eye is poorly trained.
  6. baltosquid
    Little less totals than 00z but it looks way less likely I'd get fringed due to temps with this run so honestly I prefer it this way. Especially when we're talking a difference of 2-3 inches in a storm with over a foot of now to give either way as depicted.
  7. baltosquid
    More amped on the euro through 60. Too amped?
  8. baltosquid
    Just look at the trend of 24hr precipitation on the 12z GEFS over the past few runs. Very telling of a continuing trend towards the euro/the rest of the models. Comma shape setting up closer and closer to just how we want it.
  9. baltosquid
    Hard to tell in the swarm, but seems like the tuck and stall off the coast is well liked by the 18z EPS maybe?
  10. baltosquid
    Not the kind of perfect run we saw on the euro but some aspects seem better. Seems like the GFS is more likely to cave to the euro rn.
  11. baltosquid
    162... still dumping... how far to a BECS?
  12. baltosquid
    Looks like an all snow affair for 95 right now... but what will the back end look like?
  13. baltosquid
    So far, it seems like the GFS is the only model that wants to get rid of the confluence early. Even at the tail end of the long meso runs (NAM 12 and RGEM) the GFS is already starting to pull away to the east. It would be a great show of force for the model if it does indeed verify with a faster exit, but right now it's pretty much alone it appears. Edit: FWIW, NAVGEM looks pretty good too but not really one of the models to take cues from.
  14. baltosquid
    Ukie looks nice, honestly could be a bit TOO far south/off the coast in some respects. Wouldn't be as good as 00z Euro (though can't say for certain since the run ends too soon to really get a sense of the kind of coastal it may or may not have) but not bad.
  15. baltosquid
    Canadian looks colder through 84. Hopefully we can get the GFS to be the odd one out compared to the ICON, GEM and Euro. Would make me feel a lot better.
  16. baltosquid
    If verified, don't think anyone in the subforum would have less than 3 inches (S/SW of ocean city). Usual caveats with 10:1 maps. When's the last time everyone was able to walk away with something like that, no fringing? But let's wait and see what the more well regarded models have to say shortly.
  17. baltosquid
    Icon has always seemed to hate snow so that's something
  18. baltosquid
    We want a quicker transfer if we want to get the best of both lows, right?
  19. baltosquid
    The fact that the euro looks that good a week out has me worried lol. Can’t shake the feeling that it’s unlikely to be dead right this far out and the adjustments are usually rough for us. I’ll feel more confident if it still looks like that come Thursday 12z. But really good run nonetheless.
  20. baltosquid
    GEFS h5 looks improved too if I'm not mistaken
  21. baltosquid
    The models have all been bouncing around some sort of system on the 24th/25th/26th. CMC probably the closest to what we'd want so far. Needs a stronger/better placed 50/50 low and more blocking, though. The high as shown would probably disappoint us in the same ways the high with yesterday's storm did.
  22. baltosquid
    Greetings from the Mid-Atlantic forum, anyone got a total for Bryn Mawr/Villanova?
  23. baltosquid
    Sleet getting fairly intense by the park. Wish snow had held on longer, bet the rates would have been great.
  24. baltosquid
    Change to sleet complete at Patterson Park. Measure 2 inches on my car and a bit more on the doorstep. Let's see if we get anything on the back end, fingers crossed.
  25. baltosquid
    Think the snow is on its last legs in by Patterson, flakes are smaller and I occasionally hear some impacts on the windows.
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