baltosquid

At this point I wonder if I’d prefer to see things more inland lol, we keep leaving snow on the table with things trending to our SE with the exception of that Harrisburg hauler. Feels like the playbook this year has been “op runs sets a storm up off shore in med-long range, it trends in, then trends out”

Feels like we’re still deep in the screw zone in Baltimore… the amount of flakes falling is a bit higher than it was an hour ago, but it’s still only dust. Only a grassy surfaces and car topper event so far. Just hoping we can cover the grass by tomorrow at this point but I am not convinced that’s in the cards. Seems like we might get the very marginal dark greens (looking at COD radar) soon, so let’s see if that can turn our fortunes around.

Snow petering out in Canton for now it would seem.

Snow's picked up in Canton. Feeling sufficiently wintery to pour a Lost Generation Stout. Radar looks to be improving but I am worried about getting stuck in between of the two stronger bands around me, hopefully the stronger stuff fills in here, too.

Light flakes in Canton.

GFS over the last day. Too little too late to help west of the bay to any large extent I think, but if the h5 keeps trending like so I imagine the coast would be more likely to achieve the high end of the forecast as we transition to the coastal low portion of the event.

By 42 that's all she wrote for the subforum pretty much. Seems like a very similar run, a little bit worse. Started out looking okay but the storm just moves too fast.

Okay so by 36 a clear problem has arisen; it just gets pushed out too fast. Even with a marginally better low placement, we end up missing out on more of the coastal it seems since it scoots.

Anyway... euro through 24 looks pretty decent, better precipitation up front and low placement. Seems like h5 was marginally better. Not gonna radically alter things but maybe a nice baby step towards more secure totals for the subforum. Edit: Doesn't seem like much of the coastal snow will have any shot of getting west of the bay at 30, though. Just dries up too fast. Always good to be skeptical of the coastal snow...

We might reach climo in Baltimore this year which is a nice change but until we finally break the warning criteria drought, can’t go better than a C! Hopefully if we get into a boundary runner setup, we have enough tickets in that lottery to make one score like the GFS depicts. But it’s a long way away, say your goodbyes to it before the 12z…

If the GFS ends up caving in the morning after a run like that, it'll have "Flowers For Charlie" vibes.

FWIW the h5 look catches up with 18z in many respects by 54, but by then it's too late to help us and is still further east, and the low has already gone well wide right. Bad run. No Jaws.

It's not HUGELY different from 18z at 45 on h5 vort look, but the large majority of ways in which it is SMALL-LY different are bad.

Looks like negative changes through 30. The placement of the southwest vort isn't much different, but less interaction with the northern stream, which digs less. Unless there's a huge shift in how things develop past the Mississippi river, early returns are not looking to support improvements.

Jaws meter comes out if and only if the GFS makes a strong adjustment towards the coast as the mesos and ICON have done . Until then, gotta remember what psu said - this is all bouncing around the goalposts we already were familiar with. As for the RGEM specifically, I will probably never trust that model after the 30 something inch run it had for Baltimore a few days before that multi-day storm last year, think it was the late January one.

Apologies for any undue encouragement of banter-y jaws stuff with the meter yesterday, that creation will live here from now on, at least when the threats are as contentious as this one has been!

I feel like it’s too late to get the really heavy stuff our way barring a major late adjustment WNW, but I doubt it’s too late to get in on more light-moderate powder from the coastal to get a few more inches before it scoots away.

I can't in good conscience push the needle into the jaws proper until we get the full event in range and some varsity model support, but that was a damn good run.

36/84 on tropical tidbits. Those numbers on the right are a score, aren't they?

There's your jaws meter, we can use it to grade the incoming NAM run. Meter and needle supplied separately below, don't run with the needle though. It's sharp.

Give me a minute, I've got the design in mind.

Looking at how the tail has trended across different models, it's interesting how the euro has ended up being the one most bullish about snow given how ruinous the tail seemed to be a couple days ago - the last few runs on it have actually been trending to a longer tail, but it's so aggressive with that northern piece towards the end that it ends up still being a better result for us. The GFS meanwhile has been shortening that tail for a few runs now but has not become nearly as enthusiastic about phasing as the euro. CMC also trended to a shorter tail from 00z to 12z and was once again not as big of an improvement as the euro today. As for the mesos, the NAM has been shrinking it quite aggressively and the RGEM has been less committal, jumping back and forth between short and long. If we can blend some of the north american global and meso tail handling with the euro's NS progression, I'd imagine that would be quite good. On the other hand, if the euro is right about the tail but the rest are right about the NS, then we're not gonna be hearing jaws anytime soon.

It actually makes up a nice chunk of ground on the h5 development compared to 12z by 84. Definitely a touch worse but that energy coming diving behind is doing some serious work keeping things decent.

Noticeably more positive at 72. But that northern piece is coming down now, so let's see what it can do.

Are you referring to that energy rushing down the back of the trough from Canada before/as it gets to the Mississippi? I want to learn what I’m looking at