baltosquid

Conditional Symmetric Instability? At this time of year? At this time of day? In the Mid Atlantic? Localized entirely on Mt PSU?

I take back everything I have said or even thought about the HRRR model. It is a precious thing. They should run it out to 30 days.

First closure casualty tomorrow: APG. I think they’re going for a more proactive look after not even mentioning the MLK storm until… Tuesday. To delay Wednesday…

Really just want to see one more QPF bump… we got some great changes to area of snowfall at 12z but now what would really complete the enhancement would be everyone tacks on a smidge more precip.

GEM is a tick south with QPF range but pretty damn close to a hold.

Feel like GFS looked like a better run in most everything save for moisture (lost some upside but wider coverage). If it comes in even a little wetter with that expanded area we should all be happy. Feel like we’ll be fighting with dry slots.

Think you accidentally grabbed the forecast loop not the trend loop

RGEM is moister. Mostly a 1-2 affair with some (near) 3s, wider than 06z. No NAM, but good to see other models latching on to a QPF bump.

“H5 pass greatly improved surface could be even better, lagged a bit, FOLKS” let’s do this, dawn of the final day!

3km paints a nice stripe through central and northern MD (kuchera)

Huge improvement to QPF and range of that QPF! Last minute trend in progress? Or just a characteristic NAM spasm?

Euro 3” for Baltimore would be great all things considered. Would refresh the snowpack to where it was just after the storm over the weekend and probably stick very easily given the chilled surfaces - probably even more of a transit issue than the MLK storm despite the lower totals. Also factor in timing. Lock it in!

I already have of course. But it DID work last time!

Same playbook as last time - watch those mesos and keep up hope they’ll lead the globals from here on. And watch returns upstream for how things verify leading in.

So, if one of the more knowledgeable people here is able to help out - this sounding here from NAM, in Baltimore during what appears to be best reflectivity: Contrary to yesterday's storm, flakes should be healthier IF this was to pass? Feels like only thing keeping it from being an even bigger surprise was getting pixie dust most of the time. I am under the impression deflection of the dewpoint at a layer would be a dryslot, and it looks better here - or am I looking in the wrong place? Also I'm sure soundings are far too early at this point for the NAM but trying to learn!

Surely the NAM will score another victory and give us more surprise WSWs!

Is it reasonable to turn some of this into snow again? HRRR suggests the warm nose should shrink and it's already quite small...

Measured on various deck surfaces in Canton. I've got ~4.5", would not be surprised if someone with a proper setup and regular clears sniffs 5. Also should mention some audible pingers in the last few minutes.

This looks a frame from pre-storm for many!

walked as some brighter greens came over. Accumulating much faster, pavement no match. Hope we can snag one of the true death bands overnight. Betting the over on totals…

Looks like some brighter greens popping up around DC, heading east. It's already picked up here but flakes are still smallish, few bigger ones mixed in. Hope that green brings some heavier stuff this way. Roads caved, plowed, caved again. Accumulations accelerating in Canton.

Still pretty light here in Canton despite the greens, maybe a tick heavier but still would consider it more grains than flakes. Hopefully bigger stuff imminent.

Yup! His favorite place

This was at about 1:30pm. Snow has been a consistent, light rate pretty much since then. Nothing super heavy and only the usual first-caving surfaces are covered, but real pretty. I haven't done measurements, probably still under an inch on the deck. Using the HRRR 1hr frame and flipping back, seems like we're verifying colder each hour! Maybe this light consistent snow is helping bring things down. I'm optimistic roads and sidewalks will cave fast and with better temps for ratios and a surprise head start, I think we can surprise to the upside!