baltosquid

walked as some brighter greens came over. Accumulating much faster, pavement no match. Hope we can snag one of the true death bands overnight. Betting the over on totals…

Looks like some brighter greens popping up around DC, heading east. It's already picked up here but flakes are still smallish, few bigger ones mixed in. Hope that green brings some heavier stuff this way. Roads caved, plowed, caved again. Accumulations accelerating in Canton.

Still pretty light here in Canton despite the greens, maybe a tick heavier but still would consider it more grains than flakes. Hopefully bigger stuff imminent.

Yup! His favorite place

This was at about 1:30pm. Snow has been a consistent, light rate pretty much since then. Nothing super heavy and only the usual first-caving surfaces are covered, but real pretty. I haven't done measurements, probably still under an inch on the deck. Using the HRRR 1hr frame and flipping back, seems like we're verifying colder each hour! Maybe this light consistent snow is helping bring things down. I'm optimistic roads and sidewalks will cave fast and with better temps for ratios and a surprise head start, I think we can surprise to the upside!

If we can get good frontogenesis, we’ll really have made it pretty much all the way back to where we were before the temporary rug pull! anyway, approaching DC. Accumulations about the same. Sub inch, snow has stopped. Roads clear so far.

66 is alright in Virginia right now. Saw some plows near the on ramp in standby. Pretty!

In Delaplane about to drive home from a weekend trip. Got a bit under an inch here it looks like. Very light snow falling since sunrise.

Have to take a moment to appreciate the hilarity - this is about the mean we were all given a couple days ago, yet we basically went through a complete meltdown between then and now just to have it come back because that’s the hobby we’ve chosen

Anecdotally I feel like there’s always a meso camp that bucks the trend for heaviest snow placement even through to the last day. Usually the trend buckers get embarrassed, but again, anecdotal.

GEFS gives us the one hundo percent chance for an inch. First time I’ve also seen the >4 inch 24 hr probability get into the greens (10-20%)

I wanna see the GFS purples get up to cover MD too. Looks like it knows where the state border is right now lol. Maybe we can get the backend to pop a bit for a parting gift or just keep improving the H5 look and get a stouter opening event before the spotty middle portion of the storm

FV3 meso has wide 1-3 with a 4 jack around Baltimore

I feel like if anything the NAM has just been oscillating w/ respect to that warmth, hard to call it a consistent strong trend. Hopefully just a blip

NW creep evident on NAM, really need to minimize the dry slot and hope we verify a tad colder if 95 is going to hit the higher end here…

6 long years here but I memory purge to cope I guess

We can’t get hurt by suppression twice in a row right? So… right where we want it.

If this weird boundary setup comes to pass, a good 24 hours of snow to get 2-4 sounds pretty.

I don’t have a subscription anywhere right now to get it any quicker than TT, which won’t be for a bit unfortunately

Yeah at this point they’re not indicative but more showing that there is room to get a good op run, but whether that actually happens is suspect. Ops have been more stubborn.

further improvements to the 10:1 mean at 18z.

GEFS mean creeps the low further west at 18z

Slight improvements continue today! NAM is fairytale stuff but if we keep moving with the trends towards an area wide 2-4, really hard to complain given the NBM had about that for days tbh.

Seems like 3km sets up the precip a bit further south but same idea. Can’t put too much stock in it, but I’d be curious to hear from pros what it would take to get that sort of sustained precip link between lows.