baltosquid

To my untrained eye, ICON h5 looks better but the surface pretty much looks the same

@psuhoffman trying to bring the goods to mt psu against the models’ wills

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2025021606/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_14.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2025021612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_13.png

If this doesn't pan out, next thing would be the 25th timeframe. Precip mean on 06z GFS was an improvement but temps are tough. Would need more "work." But it's about all we've got unless you put your faith backing up the early march warm up.

12z GEFS for the first time in a bit makes a decided trend SE/drier.

So yeah, losing what we saw at 00z 2/15 on the Euro seems insane. And it is in terms of outcome, but I just keep looking at BC in that specific run on h5 vort and compare it to our fail runs, and I'm less shocked. Just check out the little piece of the TPV that links with our storm. I'm sure this is too reductive and there's plenty other factors to consider, but that was a big part of why an impressive phase was even on the table. So while it seems insane to lose a storm like that on most guidance just 4-5 days out, ask if it seems insane to lose a tiny little TPV link like that 3-4 days out. Such a minor thing. Barely a blip in the weather in BC. But means much more downstream.

Yeah it is indeed just RGEM 12z essentially. DC northward shutout, ignoring any snow tv that might come in behind.

There's technically more room in front at 72 but it's slightly faster than 06z so probably a wash in terms of how much it can take advantage and salvage a thump.

One potential positive on the CMC is the TPV isn't pressing as hard in the northeast but there's still nothing really interesting happening out west so I don't think it's gonna help much

Early on, don't think the Canadian looks good either. Energy is a tad faster through 42 and the TPV looks pretty comfortably gapped from the storm.

It's not gonna be a huge slip but yeah there's just nothing exciting happening at h5 like we were seeing in the big runs. As long as that's the case, there's just no way for it to climb up the coast, let alone tuck.

There's just no big time interaction. Nothing to initiate a phase. Just kind of rides up where it can and looks set to shunt off without much of a coastal effect.

The TPV really hasn't interacted much and is backed off too west I think at 69. I don't think it's gonna get involved in a turn...

At 63, looking off the Atlantic coast, might be very hard to get it to really turn the corner down the line.

Okay at 57, maybe some positive changes. Higher heights out front, may have more room to turn. The TPV has more out west, seems better oriented to help us turn, even it it's not tied up enough to phase. Energy itself doesn't look much different.

At 45 still not seeing any big changes to TPV interactions, and while the heights are higher behind it they also seem a little further back, so not sure if it's gonna feel it. Not really digging any deeper. Energy maybe is a bit wider west to east.

39, TPV's got a bit more energy held out to the WNW in Canada. Will that swing around and help our storm turn the corner, or kick it out? I'm too dumb to say

Through 30, heights in the pacific are a bit higher. Stronger Aleutian low. Not seeing any big changes to the TPV from my dumb eye.

I'm seeing a lot of squabbling over 00z and not enough hopecasting for 06z

The fact that the euro HELD when everything else seems to perceive something that screws up the phase does give me some hope. It sees *something* to keep things together. And if there's one model I'd trust to have the breadth of data to pick up that *something* at only 4 days, it would be the Euro. But we shall see...

At 42, UKIE seems to be continuing the trend of less TPV interaction.

Maybe we should just agree not to even think about making a thread until we're in meso range....

Is it too late to say “just wait til the energy comes ashore?” That usually cheers this place right up.

You know it’s a legit opportunity when red usernames you’ve hardly ever or even never seen before come around!

That’s an amazing signal on the EPS this far out. Anyone have panels?