baltosquid

Jordan Romano

Pitching from the windup

Oh also there are wind barbs on the right side, I think you want those to be not whacked out for good snow ratios?

Green line is dews. Red line is temps. Blue line is hieroglyphics if it's there. Maybe it's just for RGB funsies? Y axis is altitude. X axis is temp at ground level. Isotherms (lines of equal temp) go up and to the right and form the "skewed" x axis. We only really care about the freezing one because we're weenies. Dew and temps close together is moister. Lines deflecting more to the right indicates lift I think? Everything keeping behind the freezing isotherm means you get snow. The surface being freezing but too much above (or too close to the surface) being across the freezing line means you get freezing rain. The surface being freezing but a little bit (or far from the surface) being across the freezing line means you get sleet. Or maybe rimed snow. Graupel goes in there somewhere, idk. I hate graupel. Just don't cross the damn freezing line please. Surface not being freezing but dewpoints being dry and the rest of the column looking like that snow description and you might get non accumulating snow, or only on friendly surfaces for a short while. Surface not being freezing and the column being shit, yup, you guessed it, rain. This is probably a gross oversimplification and you shouldn't trust me. My profile picture is a dog. Not some cool weather thing. My profile role is not red. Here's some more info... https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/convective_parameters/skewt/skewtinfo.html

I can't speak to how good it is, but now that you mention the RRFS, heights got lower a tick at the end of its 15z run. Only out to 18 hours but at that point precip is already starting in the south central CONUS. This isn't a high value data point or anything but better than the other direction.

Check the closed 850 in the apps weakening run to run.

I don't know much about the whole process of snowing through the thin warm nose. Is it weenie talk or could we really get meaningful snow through it? If you have any time to explain the reasonableness of it. I hear it pretty much every time we get a mixy event.

Euro AI is colder. Worst frame at 700:

Can I get credit for this?

Yeah it is more of a gentle slide or evolution towards other modeling but it's bidirectional. I am a bit more optimistic today than I was yesterday, for sure. Still think the GFS is gonna deteriorate a bit though.

Yeah both sides of the argument are maybe meeting in the middle, the GFS "winning" at this point is not really like what it would be like if it "won" with one of its earlier runs, for sure. It would just give its depiction some more credence even if it was over-committed.

I think a changeover for everyone Baltimore and south is pretty much guaranteed. Backend isn't out of the question with a better transfer. But to get the sort of transfer that keeps us snowing the whole time feels nearly impossible. I'm hoping I'm wrong of course but all snow is not in my mind anymore. Still think with a wet thump and a slight adjustment to temps, we can get double digits in the metros or maybe even a foot (better chances in Baltimore) before mixing but that's at best like an upper quintile outcome.

Internal snow ratio gives both DC and Baltimore 9 inches, FWIW. Kuchera is 8.

Kuchie gets Baltimore to a foot. Would be a dream. But probably a couple inches too many. Knock off 2 and I still abscond with that a million percent of the time.

If somehow the GFS pulls out a win on this storm, that will become a very intriguing window given how adamant it is about it. If not, then I kinda have to just toss the GFS lol. But as for this, as psu said above... we need one more nudge to the GFS to really be talking about it pulling off that upset. That last change seems hard to find. ICON didn't really seem to buy it. Not that I trust the ICON that much, but we're at the range where if the GFS was right, you don't have a lot of time for everything to get on board. Even minor models. Still, I am very intrigued by the changes we're seeing so far today.

Tbh I think roll with the better synoptics and see how it looks at 18z. If it keeps trending like that I feel like at some point the 850s and 700s will respond and we’ll get a better mix line outcome. It may not be a linear process to translate incremental synoptic changes to surface result.

That should be accounted for by pretty much all the major models as I understand it. Now, could they be wrong? Sure!

We abscond. I think at this point, just hope we juice the WAA. I expect the GFS to cave in the morning or by noon. WAA+++ seems like the only realistic path to double digits for the metros, both from just quantity but also maybe we can sneak some duration off of really good rates.

Not sure if drier or just sleetier earlier. But the AI has less snow verbatim on 10:1 than 12z still. If the ptype isn't whacked out on the AI then with >10:1 initial ratios basically still the 6-10 for metros then sleet picture.

Oh wait, pivotal already has the AI out. It's warmer. Basically back to 12z.

If the Euro AI comes in with a more stretchy, positive NS piece then I will be interested. That seemed to be one of the drivers of the slight improvement last run. Luckily that one comes out fast and that change can be seen early... if it tightens up/gets sharper, even before the phase I'm thinking we are at the very least not getting any better. But won't be long to find out...

wow are we due

Yeah it looks like it's amping a bit more. I don't know if this depiction survives even another small nudge like that.

Since the HRW FV3 still holds onto a similar idea at 00z, I'm thinking we get at least one more stubborn run out of it.

I’m of course entirely happy if debunked, which is likely, for obvious reasons…