baltosquid

Testament to the surface cold, some prodigious street light icicles are forming from snow melt (from their heat) dripping off of them.

Mix line was in the district at this hour last run.

That’s close to the “fuck the NAM” threshold…

Flake sizes got smaller here, more dusty. Lull is fair to say. Better rates seem inbound just to the south though, and then later on those yellows…

Looks like it really wants to fight the line! Gives DC a bit more cushion at 9am, maybe would be an extra 15-30 minutes of snow

I believe once it enters a small enough radius around the radar you will lose sight of it? Can still draw that line across the gap to estimate where it is.

Just got up with not enough sleep but don’t care. 2-3 inches on the deck. Snow falling nicely. Decent, not massive (yet) flakes but coming down. Seeing the mixing line get absolutely clobbered by rates on the radar is a thing of beauty. Here’s hoping we all get a turn at that band as it works its way up. If we do end up switching at 9-10am as the HRRR is saying, I think it will be a good result!

Actually just picked up to proper light snow. Flake size still tiny but glad it didn’t take long to move on from the teaser pixie stuff. NOW for bed.

Light tiny flakes in Canton. Now to sleep and see how bad the sleet line looks/try to catch some heavier stuff in the morning.

Yeah. And with the 00z euro, the last shred of modeling to consider unless you're agonizing over HRRR runs is done. Nothing left to look at but the radar. We'll either see the juice coming to beat down the warm nose, or we won't.

Euro lost a lot of QPF in the early morning which lets the warm nose burst through. Would be a cave to the NAM if it verifies. With the 00z euro run in, nothing more to watch really but the radar. A good slug of moisture and the beltway can score. Without it, we're in rough shape.

FWIW the RRFS looks pretty accurate with the sleet line looking at correlation coefficients vs its model output at 00z for 11pm. DC 5.4 and Baltimore 7.8 internal ratios. That's lower for DC from 18z but higher for Baltimore, and there are actually some higher totals south of DC so I think it just got unlucky with banding on this particular run. Was pretty much better everywhere else except that dry slot. No idea how it plays out but it's way too early to say the changeover is gonna swallow us by 8am or anything.

Modeled I-95 death band which will customarily relocate to include mt psu (and exclude others)... hoping it comes to fruition in a wider fashion though!

Seems like it is a nudge colder but drier. Hopefully it is out to lunch on the moisture.

I think frame 12 is the most flat compared to last run and then it's less aggressively flat by comparison afterwards but it does stay flatter overall. Definitely taking the improvement.

Yeah big signal for a cave on the super aggressive mixing line advancement... I hope. Still have until 00z to get a bad run in before game time!

Actually quite a noticeable de-amp on this run too. Edit: actually seems to be catching up on the amp by 15...

Here's the 12z HGEFS (GEFS + AIGEFS). Doesn't have max temp and 24hr precip probability does not work, so spot temp and mean 24hr it is.

So this is what the 13z NBM has to say about next Sun-Mon. I just chose 0.3in because I figured it makes the precip presentation more manageable and also might as well focus on something at least in the advisory ballpark. I assume max temp is a 24hr high but I am not sure.

GEPS finally ran and has a signal for the same timeframe but it's more north. So a lot of imperfect noise for the time being. NBM actually should go out to this range so I'm interested to see how the period looks on it later. HGEFS as well. NOAA's GSL has them both on DESI for free.

This was wetter than 00z. Really dirty, but if you take the 06z RGEM changeover times and maybe go an hour earlier because of the trends, maybe metros can touch ~0.7in QPF before the switch. With downside risk of course...

Yes, though I'm definitely gonna wait for the CMC, ECMWF, or UKMET to jump on board before believing the GFS.

For 12z, EPS-AIFS has an OTS coastal signal, similar to the GEFS. EPS has a few coastal members but not as enthused. MOGREPS-G (UK ensembles) actually might have the strongest signal of all of them. ICON-EPS doesn't really have it other than one or two members but also only goes to 180 so not sure what it might have done later, but definitely not excited about it. GEPS... Bueller? Bueller... Basically, it needs to come closer to the coast. After the suppression died a coward's death this weekend, I don't mind hoping for that. But we might just go right back to the La Niña specialty and keep it down south, who knows.

UKMET wasn’t able to get the clipper to work, and then had a suppressed coastal brewing at the end of the run. Okay at this range.

Hmmm, however the UKMET is more aggressive with temps later and flirts with outright rain in the metros. I don't think that will happen at this point given pretty much everything else but probably means more of a FZR event in reality.