HRRR, after being one of the more bullish models for QPF last night, is now apparently discounting this big band we've got forming... hopefully more upside awaits.
With the snow on snow, this will easily be the deepest I've ever seen snow in Baltimore (moved just before the March warning event). Might even pass that single event total with today's event if we keep booming, but it will be close!
That band over Baltimore is doing work now! Was impatiently looking out on the deck and seeing light snow for a few minutes but now the snow is falling MUCH harder and with MUCH better flakes!
Picking up in Canton. Need that band to fill in just a bit more to the south and we're really cooking. Moderate with a mix of flake sizes, mostly smaller (but bigger than last storm's pixie dust) but some bigger ones in there too.
It was probably the wettest at 00z. Wetter than the NAM and the globals by a tenth of an inch QPF or more! sure, every model has been busted by the upside here to an extent but HRRR was definitely ahead of the curve before game time
Do we have to congratulate the HRRR? I feel like while other models were keying in on the h5 stuff being better for us (commendably), the HRRR was the only one willing to ALSO bump the QPF towards 4 AND keep it there for a wide swathe of the forum. Also seems to be really keen on the wrap around.
Snow has dialed back to light after steady moderate stuff for the last hour plus. Looks like it’s about to backfill on the radar though! Already have refreshed and exceeded snowpack from early week. Don’t have a clean surface to check accurately but given that milestone, it’s gotta be 2+ already. I want a death band later today to push 5-6 for the storm!
First closure casualty tomorrow: APG. I think they’re going for a more proactive look after not even mentioning the MLK storm until… Tuesday. To delay Wednesday…
Really just want to see one more QPF bump… we got some great changes to area of snowfall at 12z but now what would really complete the enhancement would be everyone tacks on a smidge more precip.
Feel like GFS looked like a better run in most everything save for moisture (lost some upside but wider coverage). If it comes in even a little wetter with that expanded area we should all be happy. Feel like we’ll be fighting with dry slots.