baltosquid

I'm gonna be a pessimist on next week (not that it's some unpopular take, but I'm generally the eternal optimist...), because these frontal things always seem to end up the same around here in recent years. Looks like rain a week out, briefly get some snow on the back end looks as it gets towards and into meso range, 24 hours out it deteriorates a bit but still holds onto 1-2 inches for west of the bay, and then you wake up to the supposed changeover line passing over you on radar but the precip just dies. 0 to trace.

I must bring the mid Atlantic curse everywhere. It’s warmer here in Iceland than Baltimore! While we were landing in a drizzle it was snowing back home…

95 from Baltimore to PA just trapped in a dry slot. Really hope the delay doesn’t steal away too much accumulation opportunity. Any second we’re not snowing is another second we’re not cooling the column as much as we could…

Had a changeover or a partial one along 95 on the way to work. Was moderate, now backed off in the dry slot. We’ll see how it goes once the precip builds back up

GEM still not a believer but continues ticks south. Non event for people not close to the MD line.

Still not on board for DC but continues to tick south.... BIG rates for further north.

GFS running! Hair south thru 6.

Still a bit of a lull affecting the Baltimore area but not a straight up dry slot. That was a juiced run compared to last couple though so maybe it'll come around. Tick south with the main snow shield as well that affects PA-NJ-NY. Hopefully we reel in a flush hit of consistent QPF to break through the surface. Difference between good and poor banding could make a big difference from place to place.

1"/hr probability at height of the storm. Commute is quite possibly nuked.

I will refrain from posting the 10:1. Concentrated weenium. You can imagine it. 95 gets slammed by some vigorous banding to help create this outcome. Edit: funny enough DC is pretty much standing pat here compared to other models. The banding just sets up further NE.

Was a big tick S though. Hopefully just coming on board late...

Should note on the above HREF panels though, a good chunk of that improvement is due to the WRF-ARW and WRF-NSSL at 00z. They were QUITE aggressive with things... easily could be off on a crazy tangent.

HREF ensemble jumped south quite a bit at 00z. Signals some nice rates after the changeover.

Dry slot on 01z HRRR messes up the transition period, doubt something like that is going to get modeled just as it really ends up but something to watch. If the best opportunity for column cooling rates gets wasted by a dry slot, many will end up with little to nothing.

0.1 - 0.2QPF/hr at 8am along 95. If that's snow... yikes.

Why use third party model aggregator when decrepit government page do trick?

Just keep your fingers crossed that the trend is our friend here. Some American mesos jumped on it big time - could equally be an overcommit that gives way to the more modest adjustment south other models have conceded so far, or… the concessions will continue and we get whacked for commutageddon once again. I mean, we ALL know around here that the last minute south trend is a fixture of our storms, since about… a month ago.

The GEFS seemed to hang on to the southern track far longer than the op. Seemed sus at first but turning out different now…

Wow. Absolutely clobbered in the second phase of the storm on HRRR. Have to echo the worries w/ regards to a weaker verification though - have to hope we stay in the Goldilocks zone of weak enough to stay on the south track, but strong enough to get us those eye watering rates on the back end.

So you’re telling me the ingredients for a big storm are going to come together right as I have an international flight lined up? This hobby…

If PD is the timeframe can we delay til like, just AFTER PD? Only a few days! I will be out of the country. I guess that might guarantee a KU…

Coming fresh off two events that looked lost only days before, to reel in even snow tv from this would be nice. Would make 3 consecutive events coming our way late despite some difficulties, which is nice to see. Not a weenie friendly event but hey, if we catch some flakes and a dusting right in the middle of the supposed DOOOOOOOM warmth then I think we're doing alright! A longer shot here in Baltimore than elsewhere but still worth keeping an eye on if you maintain the right level of emotional investment.

I kind of fear that there's gonna be an inevitable TPV lobe intruding on that progression that makes it cut.

Streamer flakes are big!