baltosquid

Could be the beginning of a two-camp fight in the GEFS for where the low is primarily based out of/timing?

Coastal development has me intrigued, though getting it to pop in the right place is a toughie.

big rate burp for @CAPE at the end though!

So the SE trend paused at 18z. Good!

And if the euro is suppressed, that 0.25 is quite possibly coming into a much colder environment with ratios better than 10:1.

Is there any discussion on this or just as-is?

I just think it's a good sign that the kicker seemed to at least relax a bit at 18z, even if it didn't give us a huge hit. Honestly, wouldn't be the worst if some weak kicker (much weaker than 12z euro) stuck around to prevent over amping it and risking getting too much of what the GFS is selling - there's still enough time to lose this to the NW even if right now we're worried about suppression. I know that makes it more complicated but at least right now the entire subforum is within the goalposts on it, so if we can just trend inward to the meeting point of models, we're sitting quite nicely I think.

Don't quote me, but I think we just need the TPV to ease off a bit... ridging increasing behind the storm bodes well for it amplifying in a vacuum but it needs room and the TPV won't give it any! Ease off too much though and with ridging behind like that, could risk too much amplification I think.

Feels like the TPV is just getting deeper and deeper and remains uncomfortably close. Would not be surprised if the EPS also reflects more suppression.

EPS continues to enhance that first trailing vort. Other than that, no huge changes through 60...

Forget the Curse of the Ninth, Beethoven succumbed to the Curse of the Thread...

The hamsters doing the math on that run should be sacked.

How cold for how long to get some legit icing on the bay?

Absolutely massive glut of cross polar air

20th is intriguing but that cold press is so insane I'm not sure if there's any room for the GoM energy to do what we need

I don't want to touch grass until March

In total agreement, but if we can maximize here then holding snow cover through to the potential cold look reload in February is on the table... keep the ground white!

Low really lurches towards the coast at 120-123 on pivotal... is this a potential tuck situation? I don't trust the backend with the low far away. Never seems to work - but in this case we'd get hit nicely with warning level snow beforehand, so not relying fully on the back. But if it can tuck and chill for just a sec...

If we continue to trend like this in the Mississipi river valley, we can definitely score quite well.

GFS notably colder at the surface for us at hour 90. Just have to hope it's not an indicator of suppressive forces

I do fear the dwindling hours. Not that it's an insurmountable adjustment (in fact it's extremely within reason to adjust to a win), but it does feel like one or two bad days of runs would leave us statistically unlikely to see the kind of changes necessary to get a nice event.

A day's worth of GEFS trends. 00z still an improvement and appears to have done away with lots of ultra suppressed members given the clearer precip and MSLP presentation, but the bulk of the tracks still have some work to do.

Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run.

Early in the GEFS run you can see some more trailing s/w action, hopefully portends another step towards the Euro.

Definitely moving in the right direction but the GFS is stubbornly holding on to a later organization.