baltosquid

We abscond. I think at this point, just hope we juice the WAA. I expect the GFS to cave in the morning or by noon. WAA+++ seems like the only realistic path to double digits for the metros, both from just quantity but also maybe we can sneak some duration off of really good rates.

Not sure if drier or just sleetier earlier. But the AI has less snow verbatim on 10:1 than 12z still. If the ptype isn't whacked out on the AI then with >10:1 initial ratios basically still the 6-10 for metros then sleet picture.

Oh wait, pivotal already has the AI out. It's warmer. Basically back to 12z.

If the Euro AI comes in with a more stretchy, positive NS piece then I will be interested. That seemed to be one of the drivers of the slight improvement last run. Luckily that one comes out fast and that change can be seen early... if it tightens up/gets sharper, even before the phase I'm thinking we are at the very least not getting any better. But won't be long to find out...

wow are we due

Yeah it looks like it's amping a bit more. I don't know if this depiction survives even another small nudge like that.

Since the HRW FV3 still holds onto a similar idea at 00z, I'm thinking we get at least one more stubborn run out of it.

I’m of course entirely happy if debunked, which is likely, for obvious reasons…

Well the UKMET definitely is not having what the GFS is having.

So at the 850 level, the rumblings of a cave might be there. Hr72. The closed 850 low at the 140 line is larger and a tick north. Low MSLP is broader up through the Appalachians as well, and the high to the north is splitting into two lobes. It looks like it really is close to going north but manages to kill the primary and transfer just in time. It also trended similarly from 06z to 12z. But it isn’t translating to a full cave yet. One or two more runs and it might finally stop killing the primary so nicely for us.

Yup, ninja’d me… it may be right about some more disjointing in the storm but it is the only one that makes the second part do anything but dump sleet. However, I guess you could say disjointing, even with a bad follow-up still, would be the first step towards it.

Probably even better than 12z with the coastal action. Jeez. It is probably the most confidently wrong it has ever been, but I guess the ICON and the American mesos did give it a very slight nod but they just handle the primary and transfer so much differently, along with everyone else. Can’t believe it unfortunately but I want it real bad.

Ya know, obviously I want the GFS to be right for the snow BUT I would love to see the apology forms roll out for it as well. Too bad it‘s probably caving as I type. Maybe. I haven’t looked!

RRFS looks a lot like the NAM, but better precip wise a bit. Still want to avoid a look like this though.

I was taken away from my set by responsibilities. I am kinda glad I didn’t keep calling that weird ass run. I am intrigued by moving to a more GFS solution if it trends more that way but yeah gambling on being stuck in the middle here…

This is kinda what I think, phase is really taking its time and could affect the WAA. Also the NAM is taking its time…

I need this opening gig man, could launch my career

Also, at the surface, the high in the Midwest has come south a bit this run.

Okay… confluence holding up pretty well for us thru 39. Baja still cutoff at 561. But still looks like there’s plenty of room to phase.

Also Baja still a nudge SW here at 33. Cutoff at 561

At hr30, the low providing our confluence pulls back a little bit, heights up a hair in our region. But the NS piece over the dakotas that wall phase is less sharp and the central CONUS looks like it has a bit more confluence still. Those may help down the line. But I would rather have the confluence here tbh.

Still same story at hr24. Looks like better confluence, maybe Baja is a tick slower/less interacting, no huge changes.

NAM is running. Stronger confluence early (hr12) but have to see if it sticks around long enough.

Changes still don’t end up doing much at the surface. Just amps too much. Very similar track.

UKMET also starting to show a Hudson Bay/James Bay low like the GFS and ICON… may help us.