baltosquid

I’m waiting for the big post on how really the AO and NAO are king for snow, so we can just ignore the pac punts.

If we’re dropping complaints, I’ll say that sometimes it grates to hear over and over again “not a typical storm for us, we don’t usually score this way” in the wake of a bad run… we have been on a historic streak of misses, and that includes missing low prob hit after low prob hit. I know no one is omitting the larger context on purpose; the ones who know what’s a good look or not are also the sort that probably are good at keeping focus on one storm. But it does feel like it’s speaking to a different angst (getting upset over missing one bad opportunity) than the actual angst (getting upset over having mostly bad opportunities for years and also missing all of them). Like, would I be wrong to say it’s odd (need not say the double C words) that most/more storm opportunities are razor’s edge now, atypical, or just in general may require a fluke to get through, and we simultaneously get Lucy’d on all of them (particularly the metros)? I feel like a part of building a climate year is occasionally hitting a storm you’d expect not to hit individually. It leaves a couple questions. First is the obvious “can it snow” and I am in the yes camp… but next is “can we do slam dunks?” And “can we do flukes?” To the former, we don’t seem to be getting those opportunities to test that. To the latter, sure as hell not recently. If we can’t do what we’d view as a fluke anymore then is it time to move the goalposts on what a fluke is? Are slam dunks and their supporting patterns actually just flukes now? It’s probably not that bad but it feels that way from Baltimore…

A nice silver lining, just have to hope there's still room for the ensembles to be the leader here rather than the OP. Relatively close now...

I95 seems no longer IN the goalposts but rather is itself one of the posts… needle thin path to a mostly snow event may remain in the realm of reason. But if the incoming euro is bad and the runs through 00z don’t start a trend back to the good, might be exiting that realm of reason. Might be taking down the tree after all…

DC around a foot and the usual NW burbs all the way up through NE edging out a grass coverer or nothing at all makes me skeptical on its face, ignoring specifics lol.

On the back end in Baltimore. Could be really, really nice along I-95 as the temp drops... wet bombs up front, clean flakes coming in on the back, fingers crossed!

Looking like it might be less charged NW than prior runs but perhaps a bit more favorable to a wider area...

Low is almost moving through Tallahassee by 120, much quicker!

GFS continues to trend towards a later tilt, seems like it's feeling more of the energy behind it. Easily positive through 102.

FWIW the ICON is cooking very well for the 7th. But interesting to see it jump to being so much more amped relative to 00z - was previously very suppressed.

So GFS/Euro heading in the right direction, CMC still heading north but not drastically. Really good day so far... I'm very close to my personal "delay putting away Christmas decorations" line, let's go 12z!

First flakes courtesy of this pellet snow, at work in Aberdeen! Not a bad start to the day.

Not going to hold my breath on the NAM look here, BUT if I'm not mistaken one of @CAPE's big hits last year was a storm that looked certain to be OTS/too far north (can't remember which way the globals had it) and was first brought back to us by... the NAM 12km.

Trend on the GFS. More alignment. But staying at arm's length from each other. Don't they know it's cuffing season?!?

If it somehow were to go down like that, it would be a miracle and would give a lot of us a shot at a White Christmas with the cold behind it. But I just can't trust that anafrontal stuff...

But conversely, the TPV (minus anomalies in Canada) is getting its fingers deeper and deeper into the cookie jar with each run, and the low in the north Atlantic is moving away. Trace clockwise circles around the red and counter-clockwise around the blue... our storm is right in the middle of two features that want to send it on a 0-degree heading.

That ridge is screaming dig.

We cannot afford a blocking gap!

Zero accumulation in Canton, outside of a dusting on garbage bins. Nothing really falling right now. Don't think anything will come of this unless a good heavy band comes in with whatever manages to fill in, but that would probably only leave the area with a dusting. Batting .000 with anafrontal systems this winter... and most winters. At least some of the heavier sideways stuff has been nice to watch.

Pingers in Canton, looks like the changeover is coming fast

It did not get there in Canton, was around 3-4 inches. Areas further south still within the city borders potentially could have eked it out but I don't think the gradient was steep enough. Same deal for the end of week storm.

ONE YEAR AGO: The "Spring Snowstorm of 2018" (wmar2news.com) The more I'm researching it the more conflicting info I see. Some places report warning criteria, others not. Guess it varied backyard to backyard. My backyard probably didn't actually break warning criteria based on these totals, though other parts of the city did. Which would mean I haven't seen a warning snowfall since moving to Baltimore a month before that storm, and Baltimore hasn't gotten a flush verified warning criteria snowfall since 2016 I think.

If I'm not mistaken the last verified warning criteria storm in Baltimore was March 20th, 2018. If we do get a good event in March to break that drought, it would be a nice "time is a flat circle" moment.

Pretty damn strong Alaskan ridge signal at range on the GEFS. The southern ridge is pretty stubborn, but weakening run to run.

Impressive snow showers while I was driving up 95, between Baltimore and White Marsh. Pavement caved fast. Nice treat for the Monday morning commute. Harder than anything yesterday, too bad the sun will probably melt whatever coating fell in Baltimore by the time I’m home. Wish it had happened with the backdrop of actual accumulation from yesterday but a good mood lifter anyway.