baltosquid

I would agree that, anecdotally, the CMC seems like the model that flirts with a very different look most often while getting close to game time. For as much as we give the GFS shit, it seems to go off on its own tangent a little further out. CMC also seems to really like mixed precip.

Canadian ensembles will be intriguing. They tend to take a while to come out so I won't see them until tomorrow but would be nice to see them imply a track south of the op.

Yeah CMC is too much of a good thing, honestly.

CMC improving the phase for sure

Verbatim, the radar panels you'd get out of that at game time would become profile pics all over this forum.

Bellyaching was def premature (so far), Baja has mostly caught up lol

Insane that on both the 18z GEFS and the 12z EPS, Baltimore verbatim does not see a moment above freezing from Friday evening all the way to February 2-3. I'm sure to older members of the board a week to week and a half of freezing temps isn't all that crazy compared to ye olde days. But definitely a departure from today's norm. If it pans out, I hope there's at least some photo worthy ice in the harbor.

Bz going so far north is just crazy. May and October 2024 and November 2025 would have been baby shows compared to this, but south Bz. Getting into real power infrastructure threat territory, too. Massive what-if.

Rotation might be happening right now, but no telling how long it will take or how strong it ends up on the other side of it. Think we could still manage a nice show if it doesn’t fizzle out before the rotation completes. But will be later on tonight that we find out regardless.

If it doesn’t flip, I’d say this definitely would be a classic mid Atlantic rug pull, space edition

It will be a couple hours for it to flip south if it is gonna try to recover. Probably won’t be some ridiculous show like it could have been if the orientation was south -60 instead of north, but 20 or so south in an agitated magnetic field could still give us a show of some kind I hope

We seem to be encountering the flux rope now. It is starting very north. Insanely north. So that is not good. Would probably quickly turn off the light show. But it could rotate to south, and if it is as hugely south as it is north right now in such a hypothetical, could be crazy. Just don’t know yet.

Don’t think we need to be worried about earliness yet. We’re only a couple hours away from it being dark enough to maybe catch some sightings and I don’t think we’re done with the initial shock of this CME. If the CME is all shock and not much behind it yeah could miss out, but it looked like a good one.

Looks like early nighttime will be the best window for viewing in terms of cloud cover, then we could get blocked at the mid level between ~10 and midnight or so. The CME is impacting now so I’m hoping to be able to catch stuff after sundown if it isn’t oriented badly for big effects. Right now it appears we could get that coveted south Bz but not sure if that will stick in the end or there’s a big parcel of northiness to come that could dampen things.

Tempted to say you can lock this one in because I am traveling to New Orleans Saturday morning and coming back Monday. With my luck not only will we get a KU while I am gone, but we’ll be stranded at the airport trying to get home. Nervous for my dog too if it’s bad, even trusting the sitter…

Got a dusting at lake Anna. Looks like I might catch a little extra snow shower based on the radar before it’s all done.

Been snowing quite nicely for a bit now at lake Anna. Struggling to stick though. I think if it can keep up for another hour or 2, can get that coating.

Light intermittent snow starting at lake Anna. Thought it would mix initially so that’s a nice surprise. Might get a coating if lucky.

I’m at Lake Anna this weekend and there were some tiny flakes mixed in with rain when I woke up at around 6:45-7. Seems like it’s gonna be a nailbiter as to whether we catch the edge of the precip shield/if it’s cold enough later. HRRR looks like it has trended a bit NW last few runs, so we’ll see.

I mean given the tendency to over-model the SE ridge this winter, I think the 23-26 period definitely deserves cautious attention. Even for a storm that ultimately is gonna go too far north, fight off the ridge a little and I could imagine getting a frontend thump out of a nice shot of gulf moisture while we still have some cold. Or honestly, just imagine the setup as depicted on the GEFS right now just moves east some. It has trended eastward since this morning. That could put us much closer to the bullseye. Besides, this is real Gulf moisture. Not ready to be pessimistic about it!

Rough suite. Not much more to say. Still can hold on to this being a complex setup to maybe rescue it from here but... bleh.

GEFS was considerably wetter here than 12z but I guess temps are just too iffy.

GEFS for storm 1 looks to be continuing the trend to the op. Hope the stubbornly low snow means can come up a bit.

Canadian h5 is crap. No unified dive from the NS.