baltosquid

I'd give it the win on the basis of it was the only model trending south and dry so determinedly before its big digital rug pull at 18z while the others either trended a bit north today, didn't lose nearly as much moisture, or held pretty steady.

If the euro is right about this, huge win for it. If it's wrong, yikes. Way off in its own world. Not quite RGEM 30 inches for Baltimore level for our Jan-Feb storm, but it's making a huge claim here.

LWX really seems to be bearish on the Euro's take. Seems like they're mostly blending the GFS, UKMET and CMC for this one, with a bias towards the GFS.

Precip wise, very similar maximum amounts across MD to the 12z run. But the wave 2 precip looks broader and helps to give some previously fringed areas in the north some more insurance from missing out on the best of wave 1.

Totally didn't give Baltimore 30 inches shortly before our 31st-33rd storm. Nope. Didn't happen. Slanderous. In all seriousness though, my optimistic side tells me there's at least a little something to this. Like I said earlier, NAM has shifted north the past 24 hours in some respects, it's just gotten drier too. HRRR at 18z went north and so did the ICON, and now the RGEM. HRRR looks like north but no more or less dry, while the ICON and RGEM are more what could happen if it goes north and reclaims some of that QPF we've been losing. GFS run will be very interesting.

Snowfan's got you on the QPF, here's the kuchera and 10:1

Almost no one in the subforum below 0.4 QPF on the RGEM. Can only see a couple spots in the MD panhandle and one in WV.

RGEM already with over a half inch of QPF by 42 for @WxUSAF

FWIW, HRRR came north with the best QPF at 18z for wave 1. A tenth better for pretty much all of MD and more so for DC. Edit: Eastern shore does much worse though. Nevermind, was contaminated with older QPF. Eastern shore is mostly the same.

Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 12 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching.

NAM 3km has a healthier precip shield for wave 2.

I mean, one more run that loses qpf or goes south and I’m lucky to get by with 2 inches. And that won’t be on the ground all at once with the 2 part, drawn out nature of things. There’s always next storm, yeah, but there’s also always the next way to miss out on it. Maybe there’s also the next way to beat expectations, but hasn’t happened yet this year. Baltimore has found almost every way to miss forecasts. Frustrating.

Looks very similar to the op on qpf. Best outside the mountains is 0.5 to 0.6 qpf. Less narrow with the best precip but kinda expected from an ensemble.

CMC also looks weaker on the second wave. Maybe a bit south.

ICON is really weird. Way north on the first wave (mixes into Baltimore), way south on the second.

Rates are much worse north of DC, still favors the southern areas. But an improvement overall. edit: actually it’s a bit worse in my area and NE. There’s a NW-SE fringe. Went from 5 to more like 4 inches of snow per RGEM.

Would have liked to see a few more frames of the 3km, definitely a big north bump on wave 2, a little more so than the 12km.

NAM 12k is a ways north and stronger with the second wave compared to the last run. Still fringes Baltimore and northward but getting closer.

Definitely looking like a NAM’ing so far. QPF upped by a couple tenths in the first wave, also brought north a bit.

Precip looks healthier on the NAM through 39.

The issue isn’t that people won’t accept a nice snow of 3 inches, it’s the psychology of that 3 inches always coming from a failed 6 inch storm rather than a trace-1 inch storm that surprised. Obviously that 6 inch storm never existed and neither did that trace storm, it was 3 inches all along. But our window into the future includes visions of those trace and 6 inch storms. Not gonna jump on the misery wagon myself, just trying to explain the frustration. Misery -> panic room

Euro close to something at 114... directly on the heels of this week's event. Edit: Digital snow confirmed at 120, Saturday evening.

Seems wetter DC south, bit dryer to the north. Overall pretty similar but the gradient between south/north seems a bit stronger in the former's favor. Still no big north adjustments as we close in from the euro.

UKMET pretty similar to 12z honestly, 4-6 around the cities (higher end of that by DC), 6-8 in the mountains NW of DC, 2-4 outside of those areas. Seems like a pretty reasonable, less weenie version of what the other models showed.

UKMET coming in now. We're 3 for 3 so far tonight on globals with the GFS, CMC and ICON all putting down half an inch QPF for most of the subforum with enough cold for good ratios of snow. Can we go 4 for 4, and even 5 for 5 with the Euro tonight? Perhaps of more interest at this stage, how do the mesos look tomorrow? Either way hard not to feel good where we are right now.