tiger_deF

I have a more theory based question I’d love to hear some expert opinions on. So we know that the positioning of upper level features can help or hinder a hurricane. These effects are based on the movement of upper level air masses on their periphery, which can induce mid-level shear which either ventilates the storm or tears it apart. My question is, beyond core disruption, does the kinetic energy of these masses of air and their circulations interacting with one another provide any energy to the system, or is that not meaningful given the scale of force present in the core?

Beryl seems to be going a structural transition. The banding has dried out and been reduced across the entire system, yet the convection it is producing in the eyewall is some of the deepest yet

So right now, Beryl has been on the southerly side of the forecasted track, so I would say the risk to the Barbados of a direct impact has dropped. That being said, strong hurricanes tend to wobble, so there is a chance Beryl could take a more Northern path in the short term, increasing the risk. Storm surge will be an issue but likely not a major one, as Beryl’s small core is not going to generate as large of a fetch of water, especially given that it has done most of its strengthening recently. Impacts will probably peak 24 hours from now, give or take

Interesting cloud formation, resembles a wall of clouds separating the SAL to the North and the vorticity to the south

I’m still skeptical that Beryl will achieve cat 5 intensity, certainly possible but one EWRC would torpedo those chances. Frankly I think that could actually be worse, since the storm would expand appreciably.

Beryl is looking fierce right now. I’d say a 45-50 mph tropical storm still intensifying at a fast clip. What’s most intimidating is the total lack of other clouds around the system. Once the system fully stacks we are going to see some beautiful outflow.

Incredible how much better the TD 2 looks now than 16 hours ago

Looking better by the hour

Still a little displaced, but it’s go time

95L is well on its way to becoming a TC, intense burst over its true center and a potent feeder band is establishing itself to the SW.

Looks like the season is picking up - 95L may become the strongest MDR/Ecarib hurricane since 2005. Keeping a wary eye on it, ridging will likely push it due west but it it strengthens earlier than forecast it might find a weakness.

The board would go nuts if this happened, two hurricanes in the Caribbean in early July

I’m still waiting until we can get a storm to Gaston-maxx. It’s been 8 years and I still haven’t let him go…

That’s tough. I personally think this year might have quality over quantity (unlike say 2020). I wouldn’t be surprised if we busted under in terms of ACE, but I think it’s likely we will be tracking some formidable systems. For being so concise your slang list is no cap, fr man

Sorry, one of two Gen Z Anyway it’s looking more and more likely that we will get some June/July MDR action. Major SAL outbreak is going to dampen activity some, but conditions will be quite favorable otherwise.

Absolutely soupy in Middlesex county, feels like a swamp. Sun broke out an hour ago. If anything makes it down this far South it will have some serious fuel

Would certainly be a harbinger of a hyperactive season if we beat the EPAC to the first storm of the NW hemisphere… Model signals are going to back on and off development over the next few days but in the long run we are entering a more favorable period for disturbances.

The wave in question has vigorous convection which has been sporadic but persistent. Upper level environment is quite hostile to the Northwest (where it will be moving eventually), but it’s immediate environment seems favorable, though a little far to the South. ASCAT pass 3 hours ago shows a defined wave axis and a broad swath of winds, but not much in the way of a closed circulation yet. Best chance for development IMO is the next couple of days or later when it exits into the SW Atlantic.

GFS has been hinting at potential development in the SW Caribbean for a little while. Might just be another phantom but interesting to watch over the next few days.

It’s phantom season baby!

For pre-season development I have my eyes on a tropical wave which for several runs has been shown for several runs to move off of South America into the Caribbean in around 7-10 days. It will potentially move NE to the open Atlantic, as shown by this 018z GFS run, where it might be able to align along the shear vector at some point and develop. Waters are certainly warm enough SAL and high wind shear from zonal continental flow is currently dominating the basin (typical in Mid-May), so the tropical Atlantic is going to be shut down asides from a potential sneaky system for some time. However, MJO is moving into the basin in late May, and as the ICTZ continues to tick northwards and pockets of lower shear start to pop up, things will start looking more favorable for some early-season development, and one of the most hyped seasons in years will truly begin.

MDR is absolutely toasty right now, hard to imagine a more favorable look. I can't remember ever seeing this level of warm anomalies across the tropical Atlantic, and as the SATL and El Nino regions are cooling off, it continues to warm. OHC anomalies in the MDR are a month ahead of 2023 and 3 months ahead of the 2013-2022 average.

This goes against my preferred narrative, therefore the UKMET is as garbage as they come and can be completely ignored.

If we get both a Lee landfall/close brush and Nigel becomes a threat, would this be the most active tropical period for NE in recent history?