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tiger_deF

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Everything posted by tiger_deF

  1. tiger_deF
    Some of today’s runs have been showing a bit of a dry slot, especially as the storm really cranks up and starts shooting off to sea. That might come down to nowcasting, where it sets up and how early could be the difference between a blockbuster and just a large storm for some areas
  2. tiger_deF
    Oh yeah
  3. tiger_deF
    I already miss the frigid airmass we had for the late Jan snowstorm. One of the few times I've seen pre-storm flurries seriously accumulate. Get a low pressure system reeled to the west a little from what models are showing for this storm with that airmass in place and you immediately have a top 5 blockbuster. Plenty of cold air with this one but still solidly 10+ degrees warmer.
  4. tiger_deF
    This is the jinx equivalent of a tick east
  5. tiger_deF
    Getting PTSD from the last coastal we were tracking, one serious east shift from the next set of model suites could kill this outside of far east SNE. Crossing my fingers, I'm liking that this is starting from a point farther to the North
  6. tiger_deF
    As a red line commuter, it’s pretty stunning how badly the storm recovery has been. 25+ minute waits for most trains, constant delays, a total of two disabled trains just today. Ubers easily 2x the cost they would usually be. Another big storm would cause serious problems. Bring it on anyway
  7. tiger_deF
    This is giving me flashbacks to Hurricane Lee and Hurricane Melissa. Models shifting away farther and farther from shore, every minor West shift a sign things would turn around and they never did. It's tough being a tropical weather weenie in New England.
  8. tiger_deF
    Soon we'll be reduced to tracking westward movements on the JMA model
  9. tiger_deF
    I wouldn’t. I’d be hopping up and down for that amount from a cutter, but if we aren’t getting obliterated from this kind of setup I’d almost rather it be a complete whiff.
  10. tiger_deF
    So out of curiosity, what is the difference between a model OP and its ensembles? Does the OP run with more resolution/compute, do the ensemble parameters all vary around a distribution from the OP run?
  11. tiger_deF
    It's encouraging that the tracks leaning to the west aren't less deep than the ones east of the benchmark. While chances might have slipped a little bit last night into today, there's still a real possibility of a big one
  12. tiger_deF
    I see this a lot with hurricane tracking - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame a la butterfly effect. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so (relatively) far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement.
  13. tiger_deF
    Phases a little too early imo - don't want all the goods getting dumped halfway to Bermuda
  14. tiger_deF
    Found it!
  15. tiger_deF
    Snowbands are building remarkably well in CNE and western New England - hoping to grab at least 2-3" out of this
  16. tiger_deF
    Four across four down is absurd, over 2.5 in of QPF in eastern mass. While the ratios might be lower than this weekend's system, that would be substantially more snow.
  17. tiger_deF
    I think a swath of eastern MA won't have any break in the snow until the last of the coastal bands move offshore
  18. tiger_deF
    Actually the Euro, ICON, and CMC all have some version of this same storm - but vary widely on if it is offshore or over land
  19. tiger_deF
    Spins a miller A storm out of what seems like nothing - a little offshore, but down to the 960's! Now that we got a huge moisture thump I would love a classic Nor'easter with moving drifts, howling winds, and heavy heavy snow rates
  20. tiger_deF
    Snow has been coming down hard for the past 6 hours. Hard to tell with the drifting but in Arlington MA I'd say we have 15-17" so far. If the storm continues to print in the remaining 4-5 hours of heavier snow, and if Monday pans out, wouldn't be surprised to see 24-30"
  21. tiger_deF
    It's so easy to tell - real life is less "concentrated" than AI imagery. Even situations of joy and devastation will have areas of normalcy. AI interprets the user's request - often of dramatics and absurdity - and has no choice but to paint an image that is 100% to satisfy its loss function per the user query. Even as AI has gotten so realistic, the way people use it sure hasn't
  22. tiger_deF
    WE ALL WE NEED!!! LET'S GOO!!!!!!!
  23. tiger_deF
    15 degrees in Arlington and still snowing at a decent clip - doesn't look heavy but the accumulation is no joke. 10" ± 1" , shoveling this is like shoveling sand. Took me 20 minutes to shovel but there was easily a half an inch where I shoveled first.
  24. tiger_deF
    When’s the heaviest snow supposed to hit Boston?
  25. tiger_deF
    Measured 2.5” in Arlington at 10 degrees, arctic sand but accumulating at a steady rate. Go Pats! We all we got!!
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