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Sernest14

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Everything posted by Sernest14

  1. Sernest14
    Looks like a slight tick NW this run - baby steps. Get this for 3-4 more runs
  2. Sernest14
    There is a Thursday storm that’s running up that way with 1-3” the day before this…
  3. Sernest14
    Thursday looks like a dud on the 18z - that low never seems to pick up any steam and things stay a bit more suppressed.
  4. Sernest14
    NAM looks a little more amped at hr 27
  5. Sernest14
    lock it in!
  6. Sernest14
    Still have a few models that give us 3"+ ; hoping the euro holds ground - GFS is at least showing improvement over previous days run as well.
  7. Sernest14
    but that was the only one giving us 2"+
  8. Sernest14
    12z NAM ends up sliding a bit more south and less amped on that second wave. Still some accumulating snow for SCentral and SE VA
  9. Sernest14
    another thing to note is that the bigger storm will likely be much higher ratios closer to 15:1 so up whatever is shown on the 10:1 maps (not sure if Kuchera adjusts for that already though?)
  10. Sernest14
    man I hope the 0z NAM is right; 6 inches as an appetizer before the bigger storm would be amazing
  11. Sernest14
    Nope euro vs all models. Wasnt icon and ukie showing similar track?
  12. Sernest14
    So are we at all models vs gfs at this point?
  13. Sernest14
    Hoping we can sty cooler longer before plain rain. We’re 3-4 degrees cooler than what HRRR was showing at 12z
  14. Sernest14
    Same- switched over briefly but back to good snow- guessing this will last until this band pushes through
  15. Sernest14
    Dumping now- heavier band just started and looks to be continuing for a bit
  16. Sernest14
    Hopping we hold to snow for this yellow incoming on the radar
  17. Sernest14
    Has it started yalls way? Looks like (based on traffic cams) it’s started in the city?
  18. Sernest14
    May be the greatest asshole but he’s also a great met
  19. Sernest14
    3k NAM gives 1-2+” of ice up the blue ridge
  20. Sernest14
    Nothings on top of each other in your screenshot? The purple shows that there will also be icing in these areas. But on that note, no idea how that much snow drops if they’re also get ice as well
  21. Sernest14
    Agreed - anyone have 20:1 maps?
  22. Sernest14
    curious on how well the HRRR generally does?
  23. Sernest14
    Looks in the same spot as 18z at 48
  24. Sernest14
  25. Sernest14
    good news with the models is it's a brief transition to rain followed by dry slot so we get the initial 3-5/6" thump and brief rain.
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