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Sernest14

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Everything posted by Sernest14

  1. Sernest14
    NAM looks great- 3-5”
  2. Sernest14
    HRRR at 48 on the 18z is expanded pretty far wnw with precip as well compared to all other models. not holding my breath but hoping for a better pickup on the 2nd storm by the mesos once the first gets going and through. you would think if that could move more quickly then it would open up a little room for the second wave.
  3. Sernest14
    Euro says no dice
  4. Sernest14
    GEPS still gives us .2 liquid for weekend storm which would be 2-4" with ratios.
  5. Sernest14
    Oof - SEVA gets shafted with 12Z GFS. Gone by 12Z Saturday with less 1-2" from 12Z Friday - 12Z Saturday (2-4" overall)
  6. Sernest14
    Oof - SEVA gets shafted with 12Z GFS. Gone by 12Z Saturday with less 1-2" from 12Z Friday - 12Z Saturday (2-4" overall)
  7. Sernest14
    HRRR gets us 2-3" for Thursday - hopefully that pans out. Still have the GFS and Euro with the 4-7" for weekend- here's to hoping that doesn't go away with 12Zs
  8. Sernest14
    at about 4-5" on the GEFS with 15:1 ratios for the weekend. Roughly the same for operational.
  9. Sernest14
    Looks like a slight tick NW this run - baby steps. Get this for 3-4 more runs
  10. Sernest14
    There is a Thursday storm that’s running up that way with 1-3” the day before this…
  11. Sernest14
    Thursday looks like a dud on the 18z - that low never seems to pick up any steam and things stay a bit more suppressed.
  12. Sernest14
    NAM looks a little more amped at hr 27
  13. Sernest14
    lock it in!
  14. Sernest14
    Still have a few models that give us 3"+ ; hoping the euro holds ground - GFS is at least showing improvement over previous days run as well.
  15. Sernest14
    but that was the only one giving us 2"+
  16. Sernest14
    12z NAM ends up sliding a bit more south and less amped on that second wave. Still some accumulating snow for SCentral and SE VA
  17. Sernest14
    another thing to note is that the bigger storm will likely be much higher ratios closer to 15:1 so up whatever is shown on the 10:1 maps (not sure if Kuchera adjusts for that already though?)
  18. Sernest14
    man I hope the 0z NAM is right; 6 inches as an appetizer before the bigger storm would be amazing
  19. Sernest14
    Nope euro vs all models. Wasnt icon and ukie showing similar track?
  20. Sernest14
    So are we at all models vs gfs at this point?
  21. Sernest14
    Hoping we can sty cooler longer before plain rain. We’re 3-4 degrees cooler than what HRRR was showing at 12z
  22. Sernest14
    Same- switched over briefly but back to good snow- guessing this will last until this band pushes through
  23. Sernest14
    Dumping now- heavier band just started and looks to be continuing for a bit
  24. Sernest14
    Hopping we hold to snow for this yellow incoming on the radar
  25. Sernest14
    Has it started yalls way? Looks like (based on traffic cams) it’s started in the city?
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