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Sernest14

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Everything posted by Sernest14

  1. Sernest14
    Heavy in Ashland, dusting and neighborhood roads are starting to cave
  2. Sernest14
    Flurries just started in Ashland
  3. Sernest14
    Not worried about the NAM thermals given gfs and euro (always runs warm). Precip is still there
  4. Sernest14
    Anyone have ukie run? sorry if I completely missed- looked back but didn’t see
  5. Sernest14
    Nam tends to run warm too so keep that in mind
  6. Sernest14
    trending colder it seems- hopefully euro follows
  7. Sernest14
    Surprisingly they started calling yesterday 3-6/4-7 (7 line through ashland).
  8. Sernest14
    Precip is definitely there. Just need to temps to drop a hair. Hopefully modeled warmer than they will be and more in line with gfs
  9. Sernest14
    Earlier as in during the first few hours of storm. Gfs and euro both show a good first thump which is where I see the roads being able to cave quicker. If that thump doesn’t happen though then roads shouldn’t be much of an issue
  10. Sernest14
    I doubt they’ll be a big problem as it’ll be a wet snow with no cool down for icing over. Should have moderate snow band early that’ll allow them to cave quicker though
  11. Sernest14
    A lot of factors go into that, not just a north/south thing. Happens all the time
  12. Sernest14
    That’s not how it works
  13. Sernest14
    Modeled temps from both gfs and euro are in the low to mid 30s…
  14. Sernest14
    5 straight runs of the euro digging the upper level cold further south
  15. Sernest14
    the precip is still there on the gfs and euro as it has been. gfs is running colder than euro which is why there’s snow vs rain. the system itself isn't really moving north, it’s just the the cold air seeps more south with the gfs. so instead of a couple inches of snow and a ton of ice/sleet, we’re seeing more snow. Euro shows light snow to start then light mixed followed by straight rain.
  16. Sernest14
    Do ensembles account for sleet and freezing rain? Notice they list as 10:1 vs kuchera
  17. Sernest14
    Gfs also shows anywhere from .6-1” of ice on top of the 14” of snow (Ashland)
  18. Sernest14
    12z GFS is a thing of beauty- 48 hrs straight of snow starting midday 10th
  19. Sernest14
    Few flakes!
  20. Sernest14
    RAP has 1-2” line from metro to Petersburg
  21. Sernest14
    Short ranges creeping a little more NW. radar and snow reports also more north and north west compared to short range
  22. Sernest14
    Radar looks better than modeled by hrrr or NAM
  23. Sernest14
    No it didn’t- had on average 5-6 in short pump with minimal down to nc border. Very easy to go back and look at the numerous runs that showed that vs a random run
  24. Sernest14
    Radar looks more juiced than 3k nam is showing
  25. Sernest14
    Still dumping here- approaching 2” of new
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