Sernest14
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Everything posted by Sernest14
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The blue area hasn't been on HRRR or 3K NAM for current time so hoping that's a good sign that the precip field expands more to the WNW.
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radar looks a little more wet than models show. extends a little bit more north as well. (gulf) sorry - looking for anything at this point haha!
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How models looking for 18z? NW trend continuing?
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Yeah the rates since about 3-330 have been decent. Wish this had been the case since 10-11am like modeled
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Finally getting some grass stickage
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just started coming down fairly decent now - switched to all snow at the moment.
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had a burst of snow for a minute then went away - looks like it's trying to mix back in more now.
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Still have some time - just need a 20-30 mile NW shift on next weekends to get 35.
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GFS another small tick NW through 42 for weekend. Don't know if we have enough time but may be able to squeeze out some light snow.
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That’s all from today/night
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Are these 2 storms close enough that there could be some phasing on the back end as the new low forms on the front coming through that would increase chance for prolonged snow or better opportunity Friday? Curious with the way the models are prolonging precip more nw for tomorrow and if that has any bearing on the 2nd system coming in. I’m not sure how all that works
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I was pulling the 10:1- still some good snow to watch but also can’t imagine losing 2 inches (at least on non paved surfaces)- ground is still pretty cold
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Hrrr with something similar, looks like the back end get moisture fills end from the back once the initial phase passes
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Shows 10am-7pm
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Tomorrow /night
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NAM looks great- 3-5”
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HRRR at 48 on the 18z is expanded pretty far wnw with precip as well compared to all other models. not holding my breath but hoping for a better pickup on the 2nd storm by the mesos once the first gets going and through. you would think if that could move more quickly then it would open up a little room for the second wave.
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Euro says no dice
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GEPS still gives us .2 liquid for weekend storm which would be 2-4" with ratios.
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Oof - SEVA gets shafted with 12Z GFS. Gone by 12Z Saturday with less 1-2" from 12Z Friday - 12Z Saturday (2-4" overall)
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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
Sernest14 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Oof - SEVA gets shafted with 12Z GFS. Gone by 12Z Saturday with less 1-2" from 12Z Friday - 12Z Saturday (2-4" overall) -
HRRR gets us 2-3" for Thursday - hopefully that pans out. Still have the GFS and Euro with the 4-7" for weekend- here's to hoping that doesn't go away with 12Zs
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at about 4-5" on the GEFS with 15:1 ratios for the weekend. Roughly the same for operational.
