Sernest14
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Everything posted by Sernest14
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Sleet mixed in with this rain coming through in Ashland. @ 36
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NAM shows wintry precip starting at 6 compared to HRRR showing at 4.
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Can we go ahead and lock in the HRRR kuchera ratios?
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Need that cold air to come in just a hair more quickly and we could have a nice snowfall
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Ha! Glad it wasn’t just my eyes playing tricks
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Not sure if it means anything but the NAM has the cooler air down more into Kentucky/TN/SwVA at 18z tomorrow compared to the last 3 runs with the precip field more filled in. Hoping that means the cooling is coming in a little more quick
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Can't get a good gauge on 12k vs 3k - seems like 3k has been underdone with past so may be a good blend between the 2? anyone notice anything different between the 2 with past storms?
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Huggin the hell out of the RGEM - still gives us 5-8"
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ooof - 12Z suites all look bad - crazy how much have changes in less than 24 hours across the board
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Kuchera still looks to give ~5”. I think we’re starting to zero in a bit more on a 4-6” event
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Have about 2 frames of this:
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2nd wave- nothing our way on the first- should clarify, very little
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Looks like a good thump after the initial rain pulls through though
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NAM 0z seems a bit warmer to start. Decent rain (had to zoom in, not too heavy)
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I think the trends at least keep us out of the ice/mix potential which is good - even less amped gets us 4-5" if the 18z is right - looking forward to the 0z runs though. I don't believe we'll get pushed too much south - that's a lot of suppression still to happen
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Euro not great for most but still keeps us at the 4-5" range
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Seems very conservative given what the models have shown outside of the GFS. Figured that 10% would be fairly widespread with a decent area of 40%
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What's Thursday 00z to Friday 00z show for this? or do you have a link - can never seem to find.
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I thought I was seeing the opposite in regards to Kuchera ratios - looked like they were more 12:1 given that the kuchera maps showed more than the 10:1 maps
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Yeah went back to look at the model trend loops for GFS and what they have is identical to the GFS - just seems irresponsible, and lazy, to only lean 1 way when everything else says otherwise.
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For Richmond and south, yeah but 64 North and West. 1-3" in those areas where models have continuously given them 8+ just seems odd.
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I don't get how they come up with this - especially that 1-3" , 3-6" - GFS, Euro, CMC, NAM - nothing is showing this.
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Stole from other thread
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I'm thinking 4-5" on the low side - saw someone else had mentioned ratios could be more 12:1 to 15:1 as well.
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Another nice Euro hit - expands a little more south again
