Steve25

I've noticed a bit of a trend this winter, that there have been some insane model results from 6-7 days away, people have gotten really hyped up, and then around day 5 the models tend to get a much more realistic grasp on things, then within 5 days the more fine details are worked out. It's taught me not to buy in to any solutions at all until the height of the storm is within 120 hours on the models. So, if the models are still on board for a decent snowstorm of any variety come tomorrow's 12z suite, I'll jump on the train. Until then, I wish you all the best. Hoping there's no crumble overnight.

LOL

Gotcha

Right, but I'm not understanding why the radars aren't recognizing that. They have access to temperatures

I've checked a few different radar sources that are showing snow in places it's definitely not snowing. Not completely understanding why that is though

Curious how much moderate precipitation actually makes it north of Baltimore.

35 seems as high as it's going to get in Parkville. Dewpoint at 19.

Having a night of memories. All these dud winters just reinforce the fact that we got THREE major snowstorms in the winter of 2009/2010 is just UNREAL! It gets talked about a lot in weather communities but still not enough. It absolutely kills me that I was a teenager when that happened and didn't appreciate it for the scope of what it was. I loved it, don't get me wrong. Was thrilled to be off school and all that crap. Compared to now though? I journal every weather events we get that's substantial in the slightest. I take pictures like crazy. I didn't even take pictures during or after that historic week in February. I left myself nothing to spark the memories. Sure, I can go online and find pictures and videos from around town but it's not the same as your own. You don't understand, or you guys probably do, how much I would have written about that if it happened just a few years later. That winter, but especially that week in February is something that this area will likely NEVER experience again, definitely not in my lifetime, unless the unprecedented happens. It's a one time shot at capturing it. It's honestly one of my biggest regrets of my life to this point. I know that sounds overdramatic, but it's the truth. I have people tell me, "Just go to somewhere that gets insane amounts of snow, then you can experience it." They don't understand. What made it so special and spectacular is that it happened in this area. The fact that it's something that will very likely never happen again. I'm thrilled I got the chance to live through that. I just wish I would've done more with it. How's that for banter?

It's really really really nice to be tracking some kind of actual threat within a week in December.

The good thing about having terrible expectations is that if anything remotely positive happens, it feels like a pleasant surprise. Overall though, I'm so glad I've changed. I used to get hung up on how cold and snowy the winter would be, and if it was looking like a bust, I'd be really disappointed. My hatred for Summer has changed that though. Any time of the year that's predominantly below 70 degrees is delightful to me, and I try to soak every day in. I love the bitter cold and snow and always will, but at this point it's icing on the cake of a season that I just adore. November-February(Sometimes October and March included)>>>>>>>>>>everything else!

I am not anywhere close to as advanced in meteorology knowledge as some of you, but I do have some obscure stats. BWI has not had an 8+ inch snow total month(December through March) in 4 consecutive winters. BWI has NEVER went 5 consecutive winters doing that. BWI has went 5 consecutive winters with no double digit snow months twice. Never 6 consecutive. So we can tie that this winter.

I've just been doing some little looks at things but it appears this winter will be entrenched in a La Nina pattern. From what I see in our history, we can still get cold weather during La Nina, but substantial snow is very hard to come by unless you just get the perfect ingredients, like in 93. Is that fairly accurate?

You LOVE to see it!

Temps start out in the low 20s verbatim for that storm. Good signs. Very intriguing!

Someone hasn't been paying much attention to this forum outside of the past 2 hours...

Thank you for the reality check. Still happy to see it trending in a colder direction. Love sub-freezing stretches.

Only one day gets above freezing from the 20th to the 25th on the GFS, and even that is barely above freezing. Good stuff!

Getting way too ahead of myself, but I'm also keeping in the back of my mind that if the Ravens win this week, they will be playing in Baltimore at 3 PM on Sunday the 19th, so being that were looking at some potential around that time, I'm extra glued to what might happen

Some big time cold behind the snow/ice/rain storm on the GFS. Stuck in the 20's for a few days!

I may stand in the minority, but I very much enjoy the cold as much as the snow, so if these are signals we're headed for much colder stretches, I'm here for it!

Wish I had the memory to remember what January/February of 2014 and 2015 were like. I gotta start writing things down so I have something to look back to when I forget! Last really cold stretch I remember I think was the very beginning of January 2018? I remember it being sub-freezing for like 10 consecutive days. All the water bodies near my area were frozen over. It was awesome!

I was wondering same thing!

In all seriousness EJ, if you're of the mindset that it's not worth discussing until it's 5 days out, you really should take Bob's advice and take a break until next week at least. I've done it, and it does help clear my head and then when I come back, there's fun stuff to discuss in a much closer range. We know there won't be anything wintry in the next 5 days, so maybe this is the perfect time. Also to the rest of you, thanks for driving into the long range with these intelligent breakdowns. I don't have the knowledge of you guys, but I pick up bits and pieces of information.

Anyone have content from that epic week in 2010? I could use it right about now lol