Steve25

Not painting a very encouraging picture. I've actually felt very positive about the upcoming threats, which I never did about the last few. I'm one of the ones who truly enjoys every flake that falls and tries to put things in perspective. I'm not going to lie, if we come out of mid-February with nothing substantial, I'm going to be in a pretty dark place.

What happened to Baltimore here?

Thought I saw someone say lows near 0 and highs in the mid teens for one day early next week.

As someone who really struggles with the intense maths and sciences you have to get through in order to achieve a meteorology degree, it always makes me scratch my head at the ones who earn a degree in Meteorology and then resort to just model hype, something just weather hobbyists can do in their sleep. I'm not saying that's all DT does. I've seen him release very detailed articles breaking down patterns and signals. But I've also seen him ignore clear trends and weather logic in order to push the hype of one model output. There are also many others who earn degrees in this field and then go on to just be hype-casters while getting paid handsomely.

I can't get his article out of my head from the 31st-2nd storm last weekend when things seemed to be crumbling for significant snow chances around here and he said he sees a real possibility of Baltimore/DC to get into the 18-24 inch bullseye.

All events after the next event

I feel that. Especially in a winter with models shifting left and right all the way up until game time! I think the trends within 72 hours is what I'm really trying to look for. Hopefully this will be a solid win for most of the area!

I don't know if that's what I'd say is the reason. The onset of that system is well less than 3 days away. If there's any potential at all, it should have its own thread. This is the day 3-7 thread after all.

Agreed. Once it looks more concrete, create it's own thread. Right now, I think the weekend stuff will be included in here.

What? I've had barely any cold/dry days this winter. Have had quite a few days with snow falling recently. Hasn't accumulated much but it certainly hasn't fit the "warm up and rain" formula.

Personal opinions that don't really provide "information" about upcoming weather. Or anything that doesn't really provide information.

We've got a little something to watch Wednesday night/Thursday... Maybe a little follow up something Friday... Then the possibility of something over the weekend... With brutal cold infiltrating the country but we're not sure exactly how that airmass will interact with this train of systems? The possibility exists for every type of precipitation we know of, including dry outcomes, and it all starts in less than 72 hours. My head hurts

Yeah it's a weird feeling. Like I know we're supposed to trust the Euro way more than NAM from 3 days out, but I feel like the NAM has done well at range in telling us which way things are trending.

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly?

Agree. All I remember hearing in January was that the pattern will become much more favorable for cold and storms in the last week of January and into February, and frankly, that has panned out. A large portion of our region may not have gotten a major snow in that stretch, but the opportunities have been there. There were NO opportunities pretty much the whole month of January.

The bright side of not really getting any accumulations in Baltimore...no stress watching it quickly melt away this afternoon lol.

Yeah not going to happen here in Parkville for this one. Barely a slushy coating on cold surfaces. I didn't expect much of anything from this one, so no real disappointment. Happy for anyone getting accumulations of any inches.

Am I wrong to not really even take anything remotely seriously from the models for next week until tomorrow at the earliest? It just seems like they don't have a handle on things right now from beyond 3 days. The way the models flipped from no storm at all to one riding the coast 3 days prior to this one, it has me skeptical they don't have a solid grasp on our current pattern. Maybe I'm being too skeptical.

Came down heavy, laid a little coating. Lightened up, coating melted. Now heavy again, coating forming again. Parkville, just northeast of Baltimore City. Hoping it can CRANK for a few hours. Otherwise, accumulations will be scarce for me.

Odd. It's puking snow and I'm on the line of north Baltimore City.

Is it really "crazy" though? A few days ago it was supposed to be 50 degrees and Sunny on Sunday with this storm getting severely suppressed. It's been nearly 50 degrees for two days leading into this. Best case scenario was always for precip to be falling into 32-35 degree temps. The only possible way this was going to end up "significant" in any sense would be if the precip was very heavy in order to overcome to mediocre temperatures. CWG said 1-3 when the models we're pumping for 6-8. They said it was because the conditions need to work out nearly perfectly to get more than 1-3. I think they made the right call. They admit there's upside for any areas that get those very heavy rates, but if your reasonable expectations for this was anything more than a couple sloppy inches, I can't really understand that.

With that being said, there's still enough guidance that would stand to say their 1-3 inch prediction is too low, but they seem to be sticking to it. I'm assuming they're concerned about temperatures/how heavy the rates will actually be.

CWG must've seen that overnight shift coming. If it continues today, their forecast may be spot on.

Got the 2-6 inch event that was spread out over 3 days. Now we get a 2-6 inch event that is in and out in 6 hours! Let's enjoy them however they come.

Nam has temps topping out around 45 tomorrow. 38 around 1 AM when some light rain creeps in, then temps plunge as heavy precip moves in. Changes to snow and it rips from about 2-4 AM to 8-10 AM with temperatures hovering right around freezing. This is for the Baltimore area.