Weather Will

WB 6Z GFS and 0Z EURO… Cut the lawn before Sunday evening…

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From 4 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a slow moving boundary draped across the region Tuesday morning through early Tuesday afternoon. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to drop 2 to 3 inches across much of the watch area, with isolated higher amounts up to 5 inches possible in the heaviest cells. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

WB 12Z 3K NAM…. Nice to see something not falling apart as it rolls in later today.

WB 6Z EURO

WB Sept 1 EURO weeklies through mid October….start building up the snow pack in our cold source regions!!!!

If August does draw to a close Wednesday without a single named storm forming, it will be the first empty August since 1997. Source: Washington Post.

Commuting to DC, beautiful, refreshing early morning walk to the train….

WB GFS ensembles Probs say no threats through Labor Day week….enjoy the beach!!!

WB 0Z EPS

WB 18Z GFS…. At this point, we can say likelihood increasing that there will be a tropical system to track in the western Atlantic during the week of the 4th… this run of GFS has it doing a loop da loop toward the coast, and then running NNE inland up toward the DMV.

WB 12Z EPS

WB 12Z EURO has a hurricane lurking east of the Bahamas. Not moving much but not heading out to sea at the end of this run.

Had to water today for the first time in a month. It is miserably hot and humid. Hopefully will get one of the late Tuesday showers. WB 12z Can.

The usual…

WB 12Z GFS. First time I have seen snow forecast in famtasyland in the continental U.S. in awhile. Better start dusting off the snow probability maps that annoy everyone….

WB 12Z EURO (storm heading out to sea)…

WB 0Z EURO and 6z GFS both have a hurricane in the western Atlantic around Labor Day.

WB 12Z EPS

WB 0Z EPS.

WB 0Z control and 6Z GEFS for Labor Day weekend period.

WB 18Z GFS still says watch Labor Day weekend period…

WB 12Z GFS in fantasy range at Day 16, but this is the time of year and with MJO support maybe something to track by next weekend in the Central Atlantic. 2nd picture WB 0Z Euro EPS.

WB 12Z GFS brings in rain starting early evening Sun.

WB 18Z GFS… another wet period to track? What will be interesting is to see whether a rainy week ahead sets the stage for a flooding tropical event in the extended period.

Good Washington Post article by Matthew Cappucci. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/17/hurricane-season-tropical-atlantic/