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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. Went to a funeral in Clinton, MD today, sunny and 81. Back to Brunswick, cloudy and 65.
  2. WB 12Z GEFS supports trough on east coast week 2 let's see if it trends colder over the next week.
  3. First widespread freeze outside the Beltways on Th. Am. WB 6Z GFS.
  4. EURO still having trouble forecasting cold air even 2 weeks out. Compare weekly run from two weeks ago compared to last night. We are in for some wild forecast swings this year....(WB)
  5. WB 6Z GEFS, first week of November will be chilly.
  6. You mean this that I should not post from fantasy land? I have no idea how much it is going to snow this season but the vibe is definitely different. WB 6Z GFS
  7. Could be the kiss of death but JB in a recent WB post says he is tweaking his forecast for a faster start to winter in January. Hope the November seasonal updates in another week show the same thing.
  8. WB CFS. One run but..January....looks sweet.
  9. WB latest GEFS extended and EPS weeklies do forecast snow in our cold source regions the next month, which can't hurt our prospects for some cold in December.
  10. WB latest EURO weeklies are within a degree of average for November and average precipitation.
  11. None of the seasonal models have shown a cold November or December but rather a transition to an eastern trough as we get into January. Could we thread the needle with a cold enough storm to bring some snow for the holidays, sure....but way too soon to figure that out yet. WB 0Z EPS teleconnections don't scream torch or bitter cold pattern the next 2 weeks.
  12. WB latest EURO weeklies last week of November.
  13. Slight differences between the WB 12Z EURO and the GFS/ GDPS for Friday night/ Saturday. I sense it is going to be an active and brutal tracking season.
  14. Agreed that long term drought is still an issue, but my grass is greening up! Light drizzle is perfect for my grass seed.
  15. Nice steady rain. Third weekend in a row no watering needed. We are in a definite transition from the dry summer pattern N and W of DC.
  16. WB 12Z GEFS, CMC, and EPS Ens. Another wet weekend on tap...
  17. I love the snow maps as much as anyone, but to keep the snow map police at bay, couple of pointers, outside 5 days, the global snow maps are worthless, at 3-5 days they may be onto something if there is more than one global model supporting the scenario. Outside 5 days look for any trend on the ensembles. In this case, no real GEFS support at range.
  18. WB 6Z GFS. Impressive cold shot in fantasy land if verifies means first freeze in sight N&W.
  19. Aerated and seeded this week. Perfect rain! Don't have to water today. About a third of an inch so far.
  20. I would say in my casual observation of the weeklies, EURO tends to run too warm in the long range. The fact it is not torching the winter months at this point is a positive.
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