Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB 18Z GEFS at Day 16 v. Operational
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The deterministic models can't handle the pattern outside 5 days at best. Look at 12Z EURO yesterday at 240 hours compared to today at 216 hours. 30 degrees warmer on the latest run! So outside 5 days use the best thing we have, which is the ensembles.
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Correct, and this week will be watching for signs of the modeled cool down by the last week of the month.
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WB latest 12Z GEFS Day 11-16.
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I have not given up on the last week of December yet. And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.
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I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time. The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week. That is a warning shot....
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WB 6Z GEFS PNA can't get this to stay positive who cares about everything else.
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WB 18Z GFS
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They have been consistent for awhile. Will be very interesting to see if the ensembles start going in this direction as we go through the next 7 days.
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I posted the current month to make the point that it not in sync with its own weeklies, which are cooler late month. The warning shot from the Can. seasonal is that there is no cold air through January.
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Would the higher resolution GFS, pick up on a small system faster than GEFS?
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WB 6Z GFS, with our thread the needle system, inside 8 days.
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Before everyone falls off the cliff over the latest Can. Seasonal, I thought it interesting that its latest weekly is different even for December. So I am tossing it. (WB)
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WB latest EURO weekly snow maps ensemble and control because it is the best map I've seen to date this winter.
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WB latest EURO weeklies , holds steady on colder end of December.
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MJO gets toward 7 by the 14th... hopefully laying the foundation for a more favorable pattern as we head toward the holidays.
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I have been watching the weeklies every day because I look for trends. The trends are delaying the sustained cold until late December. Could something pop up in a sea of warm. Sure! But that is not going to get picked up outside a couple days at best.
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In December? Hope you are correct. I do appreciate the thought without being a smart ass.
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I will take the half inch of rain for next week. When it is cold enough will look for snow. WB 12Z EPS through next Wed.
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Latest WB Euro weeklies look too warm to support frozen until the last week of the month.
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WB 6Z GEFS, will take every drop of rain early next week.
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Latest WB GEFS extended: Peak of the coming warm up is the 7 day period ending on Dec. 8. Then slide to below normal as we approach Christmas week. Christmas week still looks chilly. Heaviest precip. Period is centered around the 7 day period ending around Christmas so a possible white holiday is still on the table.
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WB RRFS has it near freezing overnight in DCA and 25 Wed. Am. We were only colder one night last winter on Feb. 4.
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This really belongs under current obs, but it is cold tonight folks. It can still get cold. RELAX, plus whining about it does not make it better. And being nasty about it really is ridiculous. If we have a cold January we just need a little luck.
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Latest WB EURO weeklies (27th)
