Weather Will

WB 0Z EPS, late weekend storm (Storm 1) too warm at surface and aloft for areas east of mountains, despite nice track.

Storm 1 for late Sunday period is on life support on WB 6Z GEFS. Weak and too warm.

We're likely to get zero snow from Jan 22 to when it warms up again Can’t say that yet, but the GEFS extended is not looking good after early February. Hopefully a storm will appear between 25th-2nd.

Seemed like the 0Z GEFS took a step back and really shortened the window of opportunity, but maybe I over reacted.

Yup, after a horrible WB 0Z GFS from start to finish , 6Z tries to reel us back in for next week. Such a volatile pattern, with no clear trends yet.

It does not look like we will pull a rabbit out of hat in the next week or so if the deterministic models are correct. Boundary remains to our NW. EPS is not updating on WB but maybe that is for the best.. I have not given up but my expectations are low. Congratulations to interior New England….WB 0Z. It looks to me that we will have to see where we are later next week/ next weekend for a discreet threat. At some point you have to stop staring at 500MB potential and say WHERE IS THE BEEF!!!!

Summary of the 0Z….

Being slightly more serious, WB 18Z EPS says an inch is possible, GEFS says next.

WB 18Z ensembles, toss the GEFS, the EPS mean is meh, I will take the Control.

WB 18Z GEFS…. Can’t make this stuff up….

This year in particular, beyond a few days the models have been horrible. GFS is a waste of time outside 48 hours. Hopefully the GEFS will hold or be an improvement.

WB 6Z GFS will be the first time the GFS verifies at Day 9 this winter…

WB EURO weeklies also like the later part of February and early March.

Waiting for train to DC, few sleet pellets and light flurries on onset of precip at 440 am in SW Frederick.

WB 18z GEFS. Interesting to see about half the members keep it cold beyond February 1.

WB 12Z Ensembles….look good for later part of January.

> 3inches, good run.

WB 12Z EPS….not a bad run…,

WB 12Z GEFS…all after Day 10-But it is still there today….like the fact there are a couple of hits S&E….

WB 18Z GEFS…. Let’s see if we continue to see a slight beat down of the WAR this week for the last week of January period.

Chilly day, seasonably cold evening. Can still get cold enough to snow. Currently 30 degrees.

This year we will need luck to pull a rabbit out of the hat. I think the last week of January into early February there is a shot. WB 6Z GEFS and overnight GEFS extended.

WB 6Z GEFS. I am watching to see if these cold anomalies for late January (Day 13) are still there a week from now or just another mirage….need cold air for snow.

There is 0 doubt in my mind that the base state is warming. I can remember the neighborhood lake in the 70s freezing over on a regular basis. Does not happen anymore. It’s sad, but it is what it is. It just is not helpful to bring it up every time we have a warm stretch or a rain storm in winter in the mid range thread. We will have another blizzard. Whether it is this year or 10 years from now, it will happen. Silver lining this year is the drought busting rains/snows out west. We want snow, but we don’t need it.

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade. There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming. I have lived through three of them so far. Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades. Toughen up people, or move further north.